After Kim, Aid and Nuclear Talks on Hold

On the radar: The almost food aid deal; Rebalancing engagement with Iran; “What Nuclear Weapons Cost Us”; Iran offers IAEA inspectors a visit; Construction halt at CMRR; Recapping North Korea’s nuclear program; Meir Dagan on the unintended consequences of strike talk; Tactical reductions; A view from Japan; and the Life and times of Kim Jong-il.

December 20, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Food aid deal on hold - “As of last Friday, President Barack Obama's administration was considering announcing a new package of food aid to North Korea and working toward the resumption of talks about North Korea's nuclear program,” Josh Rogin reports.

--“All of those arrangements are now on hold indefinitely, as the United States regroups with allies Japan and South Korea to try to assess the current situation inside North Korea, prepare for the downside risk of a violent transition, and figure out how to proceed in dealing with a regime that has nuclear weapons and a very uncertain future.” http://owl.li/85k80

Toward a diplomatic solution with Iran - “A group of 15 former senior officials, Western diplomats, and nonproliferation experts have written to President Barack Obama to urge him to rebalance the United States approach by pursuing renewed discussions with Iranian leaders on a step-by-step process that leads to more-intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and the confidence-building steps that are essential to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran.” Full letter available from the Arms Control Association. http://owl.li/85kC9

--Signatories include Barry Blechman, Sir Richard Dalton, Charles Ferguson, Lt. Gen. Robert Gard Jr., Daryl Kimball, Lawrence Korb, Amb. John Limbert, Amb. Francois Nicoullaud, Trita Parsi, Bruno Pellaud, Amb. Tom Pickering, Paul Pillar, Gary Sick, Amb. Roberto Toscano, and James Walsh.

What Nuclear Weapons Cost Us - The nuclear weapons budget debate is in full force in Congress, inside the administration, and in the media. “An open, transparent debate is essential to ensuring that citizens and policymakers alike have the right information in their hands when deciding about our country’s future spending on both these weapons and their related programs,” writes Joel Rubin. http://owl.li/85rIb

--To help provide information on these costs, Ploughshares Fund has released its third Working Paper, which estimates that it will cost the American taxpayer approximately $700 billion to “produce, build, maintain, and clean-up nuclear weapons and related programs over the next decade.” Read the full working paper here. (pdf) http://owl.li/85PPY

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Early Warning review - These first four months of publishing Early Warning have been amazing. As 2011 draws to a close, here is a look back at the best in nuclear news.

--Articles with the most reader clicks: 1) “Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity” by CNAS; 2) Transcript of Adm. Mullen’s September talk at Carnegie; 3) “Unfinished Business” by Frank Klotz, Susan Koch and Franklin Miller; 4) “Nuclear Security Index: Assessing Modern Nuclear Threats and the Tools to Combat Them” from the American Security Project; 5) Glow-in-the-dark Uranium Marbles from MSBNC.

Iran’s IAEA offer - “Iran has reinstated an offer for U.N. nuclear agency officials to visit Tehran, but is not saying whether they will be able to focus on suspicions that it is secretly working on nuclear arms -- a key condition set by the agency.” From AP. http://owl.li/85kwq

Construction halt at CMRR - Los Alamos’ proposed plutonium lab (CMRR) was given two-thirds of its funding request in the appropriations bill approved on Friday by the House. The bill also calls for additional assessment of the U.S. capacity to produce plutonium cores and specifies that “no construction activities are funded for the project this year.” Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/85kcJ

The Nork nuclear program - It is unclear what North Korea will do with its nuclear program after Kim Jong-il’s death.

--Program recap: The North is believed to have between 4 and 10 nuclear bombs. It lacks a supply of separated plutonium. While it has 100 tons of nuclear fuel rods, it has not restarted its plutonium-producing reactor. It has a recently discovered uranium enrichment program, but it is unclear if they have produced any HEU for bombs. The North has not tested a nuclear device since its second test in 2009. NPR’s Mike Shuster has the story. http://owl.li/85kf8

Amano on North Korea’s nukes - IAEA director Amano has called for the redeployment of inspectors to North Korea as “absolutely necessary for progress on denuclearization.” Reuters reports. http://owl.li/85kuE

Stock tip - “A stock tip for the New Year: if you own shares of Hennessy Paradis cognac, you might want to consider selling. The dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong-il, who just shuffled his mortal coil, was one of its biggest buyers,” writes Jacob Heilbrunn in The National interest. http://owl.li/85klq

Meir Dagan - The former Mossad chief said he believed the use of military force against Iran should “be on the table, but not as a first option. The commotion surrounding the immediate alternative of an attack may lead the Iranians into a reality in which they are [pushed over the edge] and try to obtain nuclear capabilities as quickly as possible instead of trading rather carefully while taking the international community’s demands into consideration.” Eli Clifton has the quote. http://owl.li/85kp0

”Mutual Assured Stability” - The U.S. and Russia should shift away from deterrence based on assured destruction to a relationship of “mutual assured stability,” writes Simon Saradzhyan in the Moscow Times. Near-term recommendations from the article include consolidating and reducing U.S. and Russian tactical nuclear weapons. http://owl.li/85kqP

View from Japan - “The [Japanese] government’s response [to Kim Jong-il’s death] on Monday provided reassurance to a nervous public, but seemed to recognize the lack of an imminent threat,” writes Kirk Spitzer at Battleland.

--North Korea might be erratic, but “they are not about to inaugurate new leadership by raining nuclear destruction on their Asian-Pacific neighbors.” http://owl.li/85ksP

The life and times - “Collected here are images from the life and times of North Korea's Kim Jong Il, and a few recent images from the reclusive country and those who have noted his passing.” Photo set from Alan Talyor at The Atlantic. http://owl.li/85kjy