Congress Provides Space for Negotiations with Iran

On the radar: Congress supports diplomacy, other messages mixed; the Problem of lifting sanctions; Modifying Arak; Zarif on the talks; Crimea and US-Russia cooperation; Biden in Poland; and South Carolina sues for MOX pork.

March 19, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Letter politics - “The Obama administration has gained space to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran as Congress struggles to unify around a single set of demands for a final agreement,” writes Julian Pecquet in Al-Monitor.

--“Some congressional insiders see the letters as further proof that pressure on the administration has lifted, a clear win for Obama as negotiations resume in Vienna this week. They point out that Congress over the past few months has gone from considering sanctions, to delayed sanctions, to a resolution — in the end settling on mere letters,” says Pecquet. “Where Congress can still be value-added and shape the asks during the negotiations and help the administration define what they're going to be asking, but at the same time can be respectful of the negotiators' space,” said one congressional aide.

--“Proponents of tougher conditions claimed victory on Tuesday when 83 senators signed on to a letter to the president spelling out their conditions for a final deal. The letter doesn't have force of law, however, and a less prescriptive letter garnered 395 signatures in the House — along with several key Democrats in the Senate.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1j3iADO

Mixed Messages - The above-mentioned letters “helpfully express their support for the P5+1 negotiations with Iran and their commitment to working with the President ‘on a bipartisan basis,’” writes Daryl Kimball for Arms Control Now. “However, the [Senate] letter outlines a number of ambiguous and, in some cases, factually-challenged statements that undermine the letter’s value as a guide for what might constitute a successful nuclear negotiation with Iran.”

--“There are realistic options that can address each of the main concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. But if Congress insists on unattainable outcomes or seeks to impose vague requirements on the negotiators, the chances for a diplomatic resolution will decrease, Iran’s nuclear capabilities may grow, and the chances of a conflict will increase.” Read the full analysis of the congressional letters here. http://bit.ly/OBywiz

FY2015 nuclear budgets - “Fact Sheet: FY 2015 Budget Request for Replacement Nuclear Delivery Systems and Warhead Life Extension Programs” Analysis from Kingston Reif of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. http://bit.ly/1eRYWTL

Expert Analysis - “For the past decade, the United States has imposed a wide array of sanctions on Iran motivated primarily by the nuclear issue,” write Jamal Abdi and Tyler Cullis for the National Iranian American Council. “With the implementation of the Joint Plan of Action by Iran and the P5+1, negotiations are now underway towards a comprehensive nuclear agreement in which Iran resolves concerns about its nuclear program in exchange for lifting of all ‘nuclear-related’ sanctions.”

--“However, lifting the U.S. sanctions will be no small task. While the President retains the authority to issue time-limited waivers as to most of the sanctions, in most cases terminating the sanctions will require an affirmative act of Congress. This presents problems that will require a solution should the negotiations lead to a nuclear deal… To secure a truly comprehensive nuclear deal, it is critical that Congress and the administration reevaluate the current authorizations for sanctions relief and ensure that the necessary authorities exist to not just waive sanctions on a time-limited basis, but to terminate them completely. Doing so will allow U.S. negotiators to fully leverage sanctions relief at the negotiating table to procure significant and lasting nuclear concessions from Iran, and will make certain that the President has the tools needed to follow through on any agreement reached.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1l0qVrW

De-fanging Arak - “Iran appears ready to help allay international concerns that a planned research reactor could yield nuclear bomb material, raising hope for a compromise on a tough sticking point in negotiations with world powers,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. “Possible options that could allow Iran to keep the reactor at Arak while satisfying the West that it would not be used for military purposes include reducing its megawatt capacity and altering the way it will be fuelled.” Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/1fHkyBI

Tweet - @Cirincione: West Sees Unity on Iran Despite Crisis in Ukraine http://nyti.ms/1dd2oNM

Zarif - “At last it seems realistic to hope for a resolution to the unnecessary crisis surrounding Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme. In large part that is because attitudes towards my country are changing,” writes Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif in the Financial Times. “There is also a growing appreciation that Iran does not have any interest in nuclear weapons. True, we live in a volatile neighbourhood. Yet we have always been clear that pursuing nuclear weapons – or even being wrongly suspected of doing so – would put our national security in jeopardy.”

--“The Joint Plan of Action agreed with my counterparts in Geneva last November is a landmark document. It is founded on the conviction that non-proliferation can be assured only through a transparent Iranian energy programme, monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency, that includes uranium enrichment,” Zarif says. “Iranian engagement is not a means to an end but a national security priority. To be absolutely clear, we are not negotiating for the sake of negotiating, nor in order to gain time. We have shown once again that we keep our word. As the IAEA recently confirmed, we have kept all the promises we have made.” Read the full article here. http://on.ft.com/1lOH80o

Talks update - ”Iran, 6 Powers Look at Easier Issues at Nuke Talks” by George Jahn for AP. http://abcn.ws/1j5VN5P

Back to square one - Russia’s annexation of Crimea signals a new turn for U.S.-Russian relations. “If it is not the renewed Cold War that some fear, it seems likely to involve a sustained period of confrontation and alienation that will be hard to overcome,” writes Peter Baker of The New York Times. “In jeopardy are all sorts of areas where the United States and Russia cooperate. The two collaborate closely on space exploration, and American access to the International Space Station depends entirely on Russian rocket launches. American troops heading to and from Afghanistan fly through Russian airspace. Intelligence agencies share information about terrorist organizations, albeit not always everything. American experts help Russians dismantle old nuclear weapons.”

--“Even as Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin have traded diplomatic jabs, their governments have labored to wall off the damage. Diplomats from the United States and Russia were in touch last week to ensure they could still work together on negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, and then they returned to Geneva this week for renewed talks. After initially threatening to bar American nuclear inspectors under the New Start treaty Mr. Obama signed, Russian officials quietly told their counterparts the inspections would continue. Whether that cooperation can continue beneath the radar if the West exacts the sorts of punishing sanctions it has been threatening seems more problematic.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1eRQILe

Reassurances from Biden - “Citing the need for friends to ‘stand with one another, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. reassured Poland and the Baltic states on Tuesday that the United States would protect them from any Russian aggression like the actions the Kremlin has taken in Crimea,” though there would be“no changes to the American missile defense system being built in Poland and Romania.” Mark Landler has the story in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/NtRhUm

Lawyers trying to save pork - “South Carolina sued the U.S. Department of Energy on Tuesday over the federal government's plans to scrap a plutonium recycling plant that has been under construction for years in the state,” reports Harriet McLeod for Reuters. “The plant, called MOX for Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility, was intended to turn leftover weapons-grade plutonium into commercial nuclear reactor fuel.”

--“But in a budget request to Congress last week for the fiscal year 2015, the National Nuclear Security Administration proposed suspending the plant, citing cost overruns for the $30 billion project, which is about 60 percent complete.” According to the NNSA, “The MOX fuel approach is not viable within available resources.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1j5Xzns

Events:

--“Strategic Implications of North Korean Nuclear Missiles.” Discussion with Sugio Takahashi. March 20 from 10:30 to 12:00 at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1g2HVeK

--“Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes? Data, Interpretation and Fact.” Discussion with Toby Dalton and Guarev Kampani. March 21 at 9:30 at the Atlantic Council, 12th floor, 1030 15th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1gysF8k

--“Implications on Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in South Asia.” Discussion with Jeffrey McCausland. March 26 from 12:30-2:30 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St. NW, 12th floor. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1kBZQbR

--“Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons Initiative and its Relationship to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Discussion with Ira Helfand and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova. March 31 from 9:30-11:30 at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW.

--“Creating a Legacy for the Nuclear Security Summit.” Discussion with Kenneth Luongo and Sharon Squassoni. April 2 from 12:00-1:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2nd floor conference room A, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to PPP@csis.org