Cordesman on the Strategic Competition with Iran

On the radar: Sanctions, energy, arms control and the military option; Pifer, O’Hanlon and Talbott on next steps; Misreadings during the crisis; General Dynamics gets sub contract; SELMs; Auditing Pakistan’s nuclear agency; and Touring a Chinese covert nuclear site.

October 17th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Long read - “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control and Regime Change” by Anthony Cordesman, Bradley Bosserman, Sam Khazai and Bryan Gold of CSIS. October 16, 2012.

--From the executive summary: “Sanctions and diplomacy are the best of a bad (or at least highly uncertain) set of options, but it is far from clear that they will stop Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapons capability. Despite the lack of diplomatic progress, and the appearance that the Iranians are stalling for time, negotiations can still be successful. Negotiations can bring about long-term change in the US-Iranian relationship where military strikes or more sanctions cannot.” (pdf) http://bit.ly/T0njT4

Tweeting the crisis - @MissileCrisis62: McNamara declares a 'surgical' airstrike militarily impractical & would lead to an invasion - advocates a blockade.

Event - “Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms.” Amb. Steven Pifer, Michael O’Hanlon and Strobe Talbott discuss the possibilities for next steps on arms control. Amb. Martin Indyk moderating. Copies of the new book “The Opportunity: Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms” by Pifer and O’Hanlon will be available for purchase.

--Friday, October 19 from 10:00-11:30am at Brookings. RSVP and details here. http://bit.ly/R4uGN3

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Quote - "Sometimes it's necessary to use military force -- I'm not a pacifist...But more often than not, you have to put your faith in diplomacy. We have the time and space to negotiate with Iran," said Amb. Nicholas Burns in comments on the lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis that can be applied today. Full article at The LA Times. http://lat.ms/Wn5tke

IAEA talks with Iran - IAEA chief Yukiya Amano told reporters today, "We are willing to meet with them in the very near future ... I hope we can have a meeting quite soon." The IAEA has held meetings with Iran since January, with the last round being in August. From Reuters. http://reut.rs/U425tv

Cultural misleadings - A prominent American assumption during the Cuban Missile Crisis was that Khrushchev was trying to balance the U.S. missiles in Turkey by putting missiles in Cuba. In actually, Khrushchev saw Cuba as a deterrent to keep America from interfering in any Marxist-Leninist movements in Latin America.

--Max Fisher at The Washington Post delves into how Kennedy and Khrushchev misread each others one another’s strategic priorities and personal motivations. http://wapo.st/RCraGJ

Event - “50th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis and Future Nuclear Security Nuclear Security Challenges” Dr. Martin Hellman of Stanford and Charles Ferguson of the Federation of American Scientists discuss the history of the crisis and ask, “With threats from North Korea, Iran, and other terrorist groups, could this happen again?”

--Thurs. Oct. 18th from 9:00 -10:00 am in Rayburn B-369. RSVP and details here. http://bit.ly/Qh7Cc9

General Dynamics - The U.S. Navy has awarded a $459 million dollar contract to General Dynamics. The funds will directly support development for active U.S. submarines and submersibles. Extrapolated over three years, the contract award ceiling could hit $1.2 billion if all options are exercised. Press release here. http://prn.to/RFtdgR

Acronym addition - SELM: Simulated Electronic Launch-Minuteman. A biannual, virtual test to evaluate the readiness of Minuteman III ICBM forces. Mark Thompson at Battleland explains the SELM and notes, “Simulated nuclear detonations? Simulated nuclear-tipped ICBM launches? Add simulated nuclear war to that list, and we’d have a triad you could believe in.” http://ti.me/Tu8wkk

Auditing woes - Pakistan’s Strategic Plan Division, the chief agency heading national nuclear security efforts is reluctantly accepting parliamentary calls for an audit. Global Security Newswire has the blurb. http://bit.ly/R9CfjP

Red tourism - China recently announced plans to open a “Red Tourism Site,” converting a former covert nuclear site into a historical and “hopefully, radiation-free tourist attraction.” Huffington Post has the story. http://huff.to/T0k1DL