Cut Nukes, Not Muscle

On the radar: O’Hanlon offers $35 billion in nuclear cuts; SASC trims FY12 nuclear budgets; DOE wholesale restructuring; Pat Buchanan on the war party; Progress on Iran resolution; Rep. Ellison on nuclear budgets; McFaul nomination delayed; Economic impact of oil sanctions; and Fatwas for fission.

November 16, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Save cash, cut nukes - Tough choices need to be made to meet defense budget cuts. “To avoid cutting any more muscle than necessary — especially in conventional forces, which do all of the actual fighting — we need to look to nuclear forces as well,” writes Michael O’Hanlon in The LA Times.

--Cuts O’Hanlon offers: “Cut back the current fleet of 14 nuclear-armed submarines to eight, with no significant reduction in capability or robustness of the submarine leg of the triad...Many land-based Minuteman ICBM missiles could be retired...The Department of Energy's nuclear weapons assets could also be scaled back...We can also reduce spending on missile defense.”

--”I estimate about $30 billion to $35 billion over the 10-year period being debated by budgeteers. That would approach 10% of the necessary savings in defense; it's real money.” http://owl.li/7vvTT

SASC cuts to NNSA and missile defense - In its second markup of the Defense Authorization bill for FY12, the Senate Armed Services Committee cut $168 million from the the mixed oxide fuel facility. It also cut $55 million for procurement of the SM-3 Block IB missile defense interceptor and moved $260 million from procurement to R&D for the program. http://owl.li/7vwdb

Seismic shifts at DOE - The Department of Energy’s inspector general “issued a report (pdf) calling for a wholesale restructuing of the department’s far-flung laboratories and other operations,” reports The New York Times.

--The report ”said that to save money and reduce duplications of effort, the department should also reabsorb the agency that handles nuclear weapons, the National Nuclear Security Administration.” It also “called for the creation of an independent panel to examine ways of consolidating the labs.” http://owl.li/7vvRv

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

Shots fired - “Is a vote for the Republican Party in 2012 a vote for war?” writes Pat Buchanan in Human Events. “Is a vote for Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich a vote for yet another unfunded war of choice, this time with a nation, Iran, three times as large and populous as Iraq?” http://owl.li/7vvP2

IAEA BOG update - “Officials from the six big powers -- the United States, Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain -- were in intense negotiations on drafting a resolution on Iran for a November 17-18 board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Reuters reports. Officials say they’re “optimistic...Progress is being made” though it’s still unclear if the resolution will be ready in time for the meeting. http://owl.li/7vvDC

Rep. Keith Ellison on budget cuts - “"There are number of military armaments and machines that we simply don't need...We don't need to depend on a nuclear arsenal in my view, Mr. Speaker. We need to continue to...engage in international agreements to cut the nuclear weaponry arsenal inventory in the world," said Rep. Ellison (D-MN) in a floor statement. http://owl.li/7vvNt

McFaul nomination held up - “The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has delayed consideration of Michael McFaul to become the next U.S. ambassador to Russia due to objections by U.S. senators that aren't related to his personal qualifications for the position,” reports Josh Rogin.

--Sen. Bob Corker is holding the nomination hostage to get assurances of funding for nuclear weapons complex projects in his state. Other GOP senators want to use the nomination to “air their concerns” on the rest of the “reset” - including missile defense, Iran, and the continued occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. http://owl.li/7vvLR

Quote - “There are very real scenarios in which an oil spike might hit...It is certainly a consideration, as it is a primary driver of the recovery that’s going on worldwide and the strength of our economy and that of many of our allies,” said Adam Szubin, Director of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, in response to questions on proposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. http://owl.li/7vvHo

Iran: Not Necessarily a Nuclear Apocalypse - “Rather than panic, history sets a context. So does bold thinking. Let us exercise both.” A grand bargain with Russia, Track II diplomacy with Britain and France, and “a far closer examination of both Iranian views of nuclear weapons, including doctrine, command, control, security and the rest and of the supply chain” are among Harlan Ullman’s recommendations. http://owl.li/7vvFVr

The terrorist threat to Pakistan’s arsenal - “Pakistan's nuclear assets may be tempting targets for terrorists. Experts are split, however, on the actual threat posed,” writes Charles Blair in The Bulletin. With American decision makers lacking full information about the threat, “the real threat assessment is yet to be made -- one that goes beyond merely considering assumed terrorist capability and putative vulnerabilities.”

--Full article “Fatwas for Fission: Assessing the Terrorist Threat to Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets” (paywall). http://owl.li/7vvJR