The Cycle of Escalation with North Korea

On the radar: Launch, Condemn, Sanction, Test, Repeat; Security Council Resolution 2087; Arms control state of play; Iran talks stalling; Breaking the diplomatic deadlock; and Air Force misses MLK’s message on nukes.

January 23, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Tit-for-tat - “North Korea's nuclear agitations follow a well-worn route. It starts with a long-range rocket launch. The United Nations punishes the act with sanctions. And Pyongyang responds by conducting a nuclear test,” writes Jean Lee of AP.

--”It happened in 2006, and again in 2009. With the U.N. leveling new sanctions, the world is about to find out whether North Korea's young new leader will detonate an atomic bomb, or step away from the path his father laid.” http://bit.ly/10RPONn

UN Security Council Resolution 2087 - Security Council condemns North Korea’s use of ballistic missile technology. Full text here. http://owl.li/h3LKW

Amb. Rice - “We believe that today’s resolution is a firm, united, and appropriate response to North Korea's reckless act and that strict enforcement of sanctions is essential to address the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. We remain committed, nonetheless, to resolving our concerns about these programs through authentic and credible negotiations to the greatest extent possible,” said Amb. Susan Rice. http://1.usa.gov/148BWMn

North Korea statement - "There will be no more discussion over denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in the future although there will be talks for securing peace and security in the peninsula...[North Korea will] take physical actions to strengthen self-defense military capabilities including nuclear deterrence,” reads a statement from the North Korean foreign ministry. Yonhap News has the quote. http://bit.ly/WUWq5b

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Happening today - “Arms Control 2.0 in Obama 2.0” with Jessica Mathews, James Acton, Elbridge Colby and Steven Pifer at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Today at 12:00PM. Details here. http://owl.li/h3RWS

Arms control agenda - “Last year, election campaigns in the United States and Russia meant a lost year for nuclear arms control. Now, the campaigns are over, but the prospects are still cloudy, at best,” writes David Hoffman in Foreign Policy. Hoffman gives a state of play on the arms control agenda, describing the president’s full inbox of possible initiatives and the potential roadblocks to progress.

--Reminder: “arms control does not exist in isolation from other issues roiling the relationship. It is hard to negotiate with Moscow or sell to Congress an agreement on something so consequential and difficult if there is an abundance of mistrust. Obama and Putin may need to reset the reset with Russia before they can do anything more on nuclear arms control,” writes Hoffman. http://atfp.co/VR4kzU

Tweet - @ForeignAffairs: How chemical weapons became taboo--and why #Syria will only make that aversion stronger. http://t.co/7K5oMeEl

Cairo? - Iran is haggling with the US and its negotiating partners over where to hold the next round of nuclear talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi suggested Cairo as a potential venue for the next round with the P5+1. Reuters has the story. http://owl.li/h3EYr

Why the delay? - “The [P5+1] are still hoping to reach agreement with Iran on the modalities of the talks, including venue, with a view to resuming talks shortly,” said a spokesperson for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. “We have been very surprised to see Iran come back to us again and again with new pre-conditions on the modalities of the talks, for example by changing the venue and delaying their responses.”

--As Karim Sadjadpour puts it, “Anyone who’s spent time in Tehran traffic or dealt with Iranian government agencies knows that efficiency and promptness are in short supply, especially on such a sensitive issue in which there may not exist an internal consensus.” From Laura Rozen at Al Monitor.http://bit.ly/10IHQF2

Engaging Iran - President Obama can “capitalize on the opportunity of his second term -- and avoid the mistakes of his predecessors -- by appreciating the limits of American military prowess, and placing his confidence in the power of American diplomacy,” writes Reza Marashi in Foreign Policy. Marashi provides a brief background the enmity between the US and Iran, paired with suggestions for how the US can help break the impasse.

--Recommendations: The US and Iran must engage in bilateral talks, perhaps on a broader agenda; the EU (with US coordination) should prepare to lift Europe’s oil ban if Iran cooperates on the nuclear issue; the US should avoid issuing ultimatums; and the US should expect to the diplomatic process to take time. http://atfp.co/YnwiXj

Tweet - @WIREDInsider: How to escape from a North Korean prison camp. http://t.co/Zye3G1OM

Misreading MLK - A blog from Air Force Global Strike Command suggested that Dr. Martin Luther King “would be proud to see our Global Strike team - ...standing side-by-side ensuring the most powerful weapons in the U.S. arsenal remain the credible bedrock of our national defense.”

--In reality, Dr. King found nuclear weapons morally abhorrent and suggested that nations pursue disarmament and strategies of nonviolence. “It is, after all, nation-states which make war, which have produced the weapons which threaten the survival of mankind, and which are both genocidal and suicidal in character,” said Dr. King in his Nobel lecture. Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard has the story. http://bit.ly/V72PL3