NATO’s Declarations: Interim Measures and the Status Quo

On the radar: Tac nukes staying; BMD in the interim; Opening bid for Baghdad; Never a strategic necessity; The problems with reciprocity and disparity; NATO’s declared BMD capability; HASC nuclear amendments; House moves to restrict New START; MOX risks; and The Avengers and nuclear weapons.

May 21, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

NATO in Chicago - The NATO summit in Chicago is underway. One of the key expected outcomes was a Defense and Deterrence Posture Review, in which NATO would look once more at the role of nuclear weapons and missile defense in the alliance’s security strategy. Highlights from the review below.

DDPR on nuclear - “The review has shown that the Alliance’s nuclear force posture currently meets the criteria for an effective deterrence and defence posture.”

--“Allies agree that the NAC will task the appropriate committees to develop concepts for how to ensure the broadest possible participation of Allies concerned in their nuclear sharing arrangements, including in case NATO were to decide to reduce its reliance on non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe.”

--“NATO is prepared to consider further reducing its requirement for non-strategic nuclear weapons assigned to the Alliance in the context of reciprocal steps by Russia, taking into account the greater Russian stockpiles of non-strategic nuclear weapons stationed in the Euro-Atlantic area.”

DDPR on missile defense - “In Chicago, Heads of State and Government announced that NATO has achieved an Interim Capability for its missile defence.”

--“The Alliance, in a spirit of reciprocity, maximum transparency and mutual confidence, will actively seek cooperation on missile defence with Russia and, in accordance with NATO’s policy of engagement with third states on ballistic missile defence, engage with other relevant states, to be decided on a case-by-case basis.” http://owl.li/b308N

Proposal - The P5+1 states have agreed on an opening bid for the Baghdad talks: they will provide fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor if Iran agrees to stop 20% uranium enrichment, surrender its 20% stockpile, and halt operations at Fordow.

--Iran will go into the talks hoping to negotiate sanctions relief, not included in the P5+1 proposal. LA Times Paul Richter reports. http://owl.li/b307L

How to kill the nuclear triad - The budget crunch is an opportunity to rethink the nuclear triad that was never a strategic necessity and now “survives thanks to bureaucratic inertia and the political pull of its beneficiaries.” Ben Friedman in The Hill. http://owl.li/b306z

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A bolder approach - “Instead of getting lost in ‘disparity’ and ‘reciprocity,’ NATO should set the pace and announce its decision to withdraw the remaining U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe and call on Russia to follow suit with its own initiatives,” argues Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. http://owl.li/b2ZZx

Defining interim capability - What missile defense capability does NATO have? From a White House fact sheet, NATO has agreed on command and control procedures and has exercised them. Spain, Turkey, Romania and Poland agreed to host elements of the EPAA. Initial operational capability is slated for 2015, with full capability in 2018. http://owl.li/b303V

Next step for Iran - “Iran will have to offer concrete proposals to address core concerns,” writes The New York Times’ Carol Giacomo. “If Iran makes credible gestures, sanctions should be eased, but not significantly until it takes irreversible steps to roll back its nuclear activities.” http://owl.li/b2ZXN

Iran, the IAEA, and the P5+1 - Many see IAEA Director Amano’s visit to Tehran, his first since taking office in 2009, as a sign that a deal on access to Iran’s nuclear facilities is near. But diplomats say it may not be enough to convince the West to roll back economic sanctions. Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://owl.li/b2ZVA

Tweet - @Nukes_of_Hazard: "A multiple-choice quiz to test your knowledge about the GMD system (you may notice a trend in the answers)" http://ow.ly/b2R3x

Nuclear amendments - The House passed several amendments to the 2013 defense authorization bill that limit nuclear reductions, while rejecting proposals to curb unnecessary nuclear weapons spending. Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard has a summary of all the nuclear amendments. http://owl.li/b2ZSQ

Event - “The Day After Baghdad: Assessing the Iran Nuclear Talks,” a panel discussion with PJ Crowley, George Perkovich, Bijan Khajehpour, Aaron David Miller and Trita Parsi. May 24 at 2pm at NIAC. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/b2ZP7

Nuclear policy in the NDAA - The House version of the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act, approved Friday by a vote of 299-120, includes several provisions that would limit the president’s ability to make nuclear reductions.

--One of the approved amendments bans reductions to the nuclear triad “unless the secretary of Defense certifies that…further reductions in the Russia Federation’s arsenal are needed for compliance with New START limits.” Another prohibits the president from making unilateral reductions. Global Security Newswire has more. http://owl.li/b2ZJT

Event - “Nukes, Missiles, and the Truth,” a conversation with Walter Pincus at the American Security Project, May 24 at 12:30. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/b2ZIU

TVA on MOX - The Tennessee Valley Authority is considering whether to use MOX fuel in its reactors - making the TVA one of the $6 billion MOX facility’s only potential customers. Notes analyst Tom Clements in the Knoxville News Sentinel, “Given technical and cost risks that are garnering growing attention from budget-cutting hawks in Congress, the MOX program adds up to a bad gamble, and the sooner TVA halts its review of MOX the better.” http://owl.li/b2ZGS

Spoiler alert - Hollywood has a long tradition of making nuclear weapons either heroes or villains in movies. The Avengers joins this fine tradition. However, as Joe Cirincione and your humble editor point out in The Huffington Post, the nuclear weapon in The Avengers was more likely to ruin the day than save it, and Hollywood needs to stop entertaining the idea that nukes are heroes. http://owl.li/b2ZFv