North Korea’s Launch: Timing, Politics, and Technological Significance

On the radar: Kim’s bargaining position; Satellite much easier than warhead; Nuclear complex now on Google Earth; Likelihood of DPRK nuclear test; Strategic dialogue with Russia; $100 billion in nuclear cuts; and Continued worry about Pakistan.

December 13, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Launch context - North Korea’s rocket launch succeeded at one key task - keeping everyone in the region off balance. The launch came as Kim Jong-un consolidated his political position at home, pivoted towards economic growth, and staked out a tougher bargaining position with Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Washington. Leon Sigal looks at the domestic and regional politics of the North’s launch with new analysis at The National Interest. http://bit.ly/Si7FsN

Don’t panic - North Korea’s successful rocket launch is a major technological achievement but not a serious military threat, says Joe Cirincione. “North Korea still has a long way to go before they can turn the orbiting of a baby satellite, reportedly tumbling out of control, into the ability to threaten others at long distance with a nuclear weapon.”

--Lessons from the launch: “Don't underestimate North Korea. Don't count on this regime disappearing anytime soon. But don't panic. Don't start an arms race [with missile defenses] that undermines your greater strategic stability goals. We need to take a deep breath and work with our allies to get North Korea back to the bargaining table and off the test ranges.” Full post at CNN. http://bit.ly/SiftKX

Tit-for-tat - "North Korea will insist any sanctions are unjust, and if sanctions get toughened, the likelihood of North Korea carrying out a nuclear test is high," said Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses to Reuters. http://reut.rs/12njX3V

Recommendation - “Rather than wait for the North Koreans to ask for renewed talks following the next round of international condemnation, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul need to overcome their frustration and anger with the North and re-evaluate their current approach and, eventually, take the initiative by re-engaging with Pyongyang through serious, sustained direct talks,” writes Daryl Kimball at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/XXjGVZ

IAEA to Tehran - “UN inspectors hold Tehran talks in bid to restart stalled nuclear negotiations” from AP. http://wapo.st/STOJgW

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Rocket vs ICBM - There are big differences between the ability to throw an object into space - what North Korea just did - and the ability to drop a nuclear warhead on a city on the other side of the planet.

--For starters, the North would have to develop a small enough nuclear warhead to fit on a missile, an atmospheric re-entry vehicle to survive the heat and stress of falling back to Earth, and a sophisticated guidance system to put the warhead on target. Robert Beckhusen at Danger Room explains why North Korea’s latest launch only inches it toward an ICBM capability. http://bit.ly/TWGzW5

Merry Xmas, intel agencies - “ROK Military Finds Rocket Wreck” from Daily NK. http://bit.ly/TQFOvc

Mapping the complex - The US nuclear weapons complex has hundreds of facilities sprawled across many states - making it rather hard to visualize. Unless you have Google Earth, thanks to a new interactive map from the Union of Concerned Scientists. From All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/W8RStX

--Download the Google Earth map of the complex here. http://bit.ly/TWLMNy

After the reset - “It is time to begin overcoming this mutual discomfort and mistrust. Two decades after the Cold War, the United States and Russia are no longer strategic rivals, and in the emerging multipolar world they could be partners,” write Amb. Thomas E. Graham and Dmitri Trenin in The New York Times.

--”This is a proposition that now needs to be tested. The two countries need to engage in a high-level strategic dialogue to understand the dynamics of our changing world and the ways in which they impact on each country’s strategic interests, and to determine whether there is sufficient overlap in these interests for a long-term cooperative relationship.” http://nyti.ms/TcYq9V

Desperation move - “Syria Fires Scud Missiles, Burning Bombs and Even Sea Mines at Rebels” by Spencer Ackerman at Danger Room. http://bit.ly/TcX4Mv

Defense spending - “Sadly, defense spending is driven by political interests, not necessity,” write Lt. Gen. Robert Gard and Brig. Gen. John Johns in their call to cut wasteful defense spending. First on their list of ideologically-driven and wasteful programs: the nuclear arsenal. Op-ed at CNN. http://bit.ly/TXmHDh

Nukes and the fiscal cliff - “Dozens of Democratic lawmakers have revived a call for $100 billion in U.S. nuclear weapons spending reductions over 10 years as Congress pushes to enact $1.2 trillion in deficit reductions by the beginning of January,” writes Diane Barnes for Global Security Newswire.

--"Unchecked spending on nuclear weapons threatens to push us over the fiscal cliff," says a letter from Rep. Edward Markey (D-MA) and 44 other House Democrats. Full story here. http://bit.ly/XXaUrg

Tweet - @wellerstein: A visually stunning mushroom cloud lamp, by a Japanese (!) design studio: http://bit.ly/W8MZkm

Pakistan in 2013 - A potential nuclear nightmare originating from Pakistan is a constant worry. “Yet the nightmare we should really be focusing on in 2013 is the one Pakistan’s already living – increasing sectarian strife, economic struggle, and general insecurity,” says Michael Kugelman in an analysis of why Pakistan is in for a rough 2013.

--Kugelman suggests “the new Obama administration should enter 2013 with a retooled relationship in mind,” one that is both scaled-back, long-term, and engages with both official levels and the Pakistani youth. Full post at CNN. http://bit.ly/Xh3ZUE