North Korea Pauses Provocations as Isolation Increases

On the radar: China signals displeasure; North Korea stands down missiles; Schumer wants missile defense pork; Enough for 100,000 warheads; Pre-launch missile defense; Rumors of nonproliferation’s death; and 32-years of anti-nuclear protest.

May 7, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Bank notice - The state-controlled Bank of China has ceased all transactions with a main North Korean bank. It has “issued a bank account closing notice to North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank and has ceased accepting funds transfer business related to this bank account,” a bank spokeswoman said on Tuesday.

--Experts suggest the bank’s decision is more than a mere financial decision. “It’s probably a signal from the government to reflect its views on North Korea,” said Cai Jian a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. While this move is “predominantly symbolic,” it signals that China’s strategy towards its southern neighbor could be shifting writes Keith Bradsher of The New York Times. Full story here. http://owl.li/kN7sA

”Provocation pause” - North Korea has taken two of its Musudan missiles off prompt alert status. One administration official said that the missiles were moved to an alternate launch site, while another official said the US believes the missiles were moved “to a non-operational location.”

--Daniel Russel, senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council warned “it is premature to celebrate [the move] as good news...and to make a judgement about whether the North Korea's provocation cycle is going up, down or zigzagging.” Phil Stewart has the story for Reuters. http://owl.li/kMQo7

Pork - New York Senator Chuck Schumer is lobbying the Pentagon to put a controversial missile defense setup in his home state. If a “missile defense site is deemed necessary by the Pentagon,” Schumer says New York’s Fort Drum offers a “uniquely capable” placement for the site.

--Motivation? In a letter to Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, Sen. Schumer said a site in New York could “create thousands of jobs and significant revenue in local communities. Gordon Block of the Watertown Daily Times has the story. http://owl.li/kMMLG

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Spying on the Hermit Kingdom - U.S. intelligence collection on North Korea is waning while Pyongyang’s ability to conceal information on its nuclear capability has improved. David Sanger and Choe Sang-hun of The New York Times explore why North Korea is so difficult to spy on. Full story here. http://owl.li/kMSoM

Tweet - @AP: North Korea threatens U.S. and South Korea over joint naval drills ahead of US-SKorea summit. -VW http://apne.ws/18R2dj1

Don’t forget Plutonium - In an effort to prevent nuclear terrorism countries have undertaken important efforts to secure highly enriched uranium. “Policymakers shouldn't assume...that the approximately 490 tons of separated plutonium in the world don't also pose a significant threat. That amount is enough to make 100,000 nuclear warheads” write Lesley McNiesh and Sharon Squassoni for the Fissile Materials Working Group.

--Recommendations: (1) Limit the current scale of reprocessing operations and work to decrease it over time; (2) stop the expansion of current stockpiles and work to reduce them over time; (3) apply stringent standards of safety, security, accounting, and protection of public health to all processes that result in or use separated plutonium; (4) minimize the number of sites where separated plutonium is used and handled, and the number and length of transports of such material; and (5) pursue options for dry storage of spent fuel, particularly in multilateral cooperative repositories. Full post in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://owl.li/kN0Gw

Tweet - @fissilematerial: UPDATED: Japan's 2011 civilian plutonium declaration http://bit.ly/11f3mTZ

Confidence and missile defense - Israel’s reported airstrike into Syria destroyed a stash of Fateh-110 missiles - a 27-foot, Iranian-made missile with a range between 100 and 200 miles. Israel, with billions of dollars in U.S. support annually, is highly invested in missile defense systems. So why attack the missiles preventively?

--For all the confidence that Israel has in its Arrow-2 missile defense system - intended to intercept missiles like the Fateh-110 - Israeli strategists understand that “interception is limited and there are always chances that the other side will be successful and penetrate the defenses.” This calculation likely played into Israel’s decision to preventively destroy the missiles at the risk of escalating conflict with Syria. Noah Shachtman at Danger Room profiles the treat and Israel’s capabilities. http://bit.ly/10E6WiV

Tweet - @Diplomat_APAC: Whatever the intent of Iran’s nuclear program, it appears to be pushing together some unlikely partners. bit.ly/18OfOay

Botched test - A french submarine-launched ballistic missile test blew up during the missile’s first stage on Sunday. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/18ryks9

Is Nonproliferation Dying? - That’s the cover of the latest issue of The Washington Quarterly. Included articles below. Cover art might get some wonks’ attention. http://bit.ly/ZN8fka

--”Disarmament and Other Nuclear Norms” by Lawrence Freedman http://bit.ly/13rXtQb

--”What Has Changed Since Prague” by Evgeny Buzhinskiy http://bit.ly/ZE3Ts8

--”Prague as the Nonproliferation Pivot” by C. Raja Mohan http://bit.ly/17JEP8o

--”Revitalizing the Prague Agenda” by Dingli Shen http://bit.ly/16e5mga

--”Can Japan Remain Committed to Nonprolfieration?” by Nobumasa Akiyama and Kenta Horio http://bit.ly/15yuD51

Other views

--Robert Joseph and Eric Edelman don’t like arms control and take to Foreign Policy to relitigate the New START treaty. http://atfp.co/13s1sw4

--Bennett Ramberg thinks that plopping tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea would somehow benefit U.S. policy toward North Korea. In Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/12ay2Cp

Events:

--Report Launch: “Forging a Consensus for a Sustainable U.S. Nuclear Posture” with authors Clark Murdock, Stephanie Spies and John Warden. May 7th from 5:30-7:00pm at CSIS.

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on strategic forces programs in the NNSA budget. With Neile Miller, Don Cook, Adm. John Richardson, David Huizenga and David Trimble. May 8th at 2:30pm. Webcast here. http://1.usa.gov/100okE1

--"Plutopia: Nuclear Families, Atomic Cities, and the Great Soviet and American Plutonium Disasters." Kate Brown. May 8, 4:00-5:30pm @ Wilson Center, sixth floor, Reagan Building. Details here. http:/ http://owl.li/kDW47

--House Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on strategic forces programs in the NNSA budget. With Gen. Robert Kehler, Madelyn Creedon, Neile Miller, Don Cook, Adm. John Richardson, Andrew Weber, David Huizenga and Peter Winokur. May 9th from 9:00-11:00am. Webcast here. http://bit.ly/16NngpK

Dessert:

Longread - Connie Picciotto has held an anti-nuclear peace vigil on the north side of the White House for 32 years. What would bring a person to begin such a protest? What has she achieved? Caitlin Gibson of The Washington Post profiles Connie, her life and the longest-running act of political protest in the United States. http://wapo.st/10ghx3N