Sanctions Threat Ahead of Possible Negotiations

On the radar: New Kirk-Menendez sanctions; CTBT priority; Iran fires on U.S. drone; Russian views on reductions; Security at LANL; Nuclear security delayed; The Second Nuclear Age; and East coast BMD would be pricey.

November 9th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

More Iran sanctions - Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) are drafting a new round of sanctions on Iran. This threat of increased sanctions coincides with reports that Iran and the U.S. may be getting back to the negotiating table.

--About the proposed sanctions: ”Whereas last year’s sanctions went after oil exports, Iran’s primary source of revenue, [the latest Kirk-Menendez proposal] focuses on the agricultural, industrial and consumer goods the country imports to ensure manufacturing capacity and the basic functioning of its economy, the congressional aides and others involved said.” The two senators may attempt to add it to the Defense Authorization bill if it comes to the Senate floor during the lame duck session. AP has the story. http://wapo.st/UqXZwC

Tweet - @Reuters: Iran, U.N. nuclear agency to resume talks in December http://reut.rs/TzkoDi

Window for negotiations - “Obama’s reelection paves the way for utilizing an important opportunity for diplomacy that exists between today and the Iranian New Year in March 2013... This is a period in which both sides enjoy maximum political maneuverability,” says Trita Parsi. The Daily Beast has the story. http://bit.ly/VXyLBa

Quick Look - The New Yorker examines eight major issues Obama could tackle in his 2nd term. Arms control was listed as the first point, with the possible goal of ratifying the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. http://nyr.kr/SI9hao

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Incident in the Gulf - An unarmed MQ-1 Predator drone was shot at by two Iranian fighter jets last Thursday in the Persian Gulf, confirmed the Pentagon yesterday. The drone returned to its Middle Eastern base unharmed.

--“The Predator was conducting a ‘routine surveillance’ mission 16 nautical miles off the coast of Iran when two Iranian Su-25 Frogfoot attack jets, which usually shoot at targets on the ground, ‘intercepted’ the drone. The Iranian pilots engaged in something of a 21st-century dogfight, turning their 30-mm guns on the Predator on at least two passes.” Danger Room has the details. http://bit.ly/ZdbZZQ

Mapped - The U.S. drone was 16 miles off the coast, 4 miles out of Iranian airspace, when it was fired upon by Iranian jets. Max Fisher at Washington Post maps it out. http://wapo.st/S4wItt

Tweet - @PentagonPresSec: For those who remember, and for history buffs: today in 1989, the Berlin Wall came down--and a new era in Europe began.

Russian positioning - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov restated Russia’s position on future arms control talks with the United States. Included: withdrawal of nuclear weapons in Europe remains a precondition for reductions in Russian nonstrategic weapons, Russia wants guarantees on U.S. missile defenses before future arms reductions, and Russia is interested in advancing multilateral arms control dialogues. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/Zd3spD

Los Alamos security cost hikes - “The cost of fixing a new Los Alamos National Laboratory security system that doesn’t work could be twice as much as estimated just two weeks ago, with the price jumping to $41 million,” writes John Fleck for The Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/SVe4Zh

Stalling on nuclear terrorism - “We need every tool available to prevent nuclear terrorism. Unfortunately, two treaties that have been awaiting Congressional approval for more than half a decade that will enhance our ability to protect nuclear materials and go after terrorists intent on using them are stalled in Congress. This is unacceptable,” writes Maj. Gen. Roger R. Blunt in The Hill. http://bit.ly/SR7thw

Meeting in Mongolia - Japan and North Korea are slated to hold formal talks next week in Mongolia. According to Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura, negotiations on aid for nuclear concessions will likely make the official business list. http://bit.ly/TfJMhC

Author interview - Paul Bracken, author of the book The Second Nuclear Age, talks with NPR about his new book and what he sees as “the new rules of politics and nuclear weapons in the 21st century.” http://n.pr/SIjKCI

East coast is expensive - The recent National Academies study on missile defense suggested that an East Coast missile defense site could be built and operated for less than the cost of current GMD systems. George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense shows that “not only is deploying and operating the NAS Report’s proposed GMD-E system not, as NAS Report implies, less expensive than simply completing and operating the current GMD system, it would actually cost more than twice as much.” Details here. http://bit.ly/RJmJx9