State of the Union to Reinvigorate Nuclear Policy Agenda

On the radar: Smaller arsenal, budget savings; Nukes in SOTU; Iran converting more fuel; More flaws in missile defense plans; Timelines on solid fuel ICBM; and the FMCT push.

February 11, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Nuclear state of the union - “President Obama will use his State of the Union speech on Tuesday to reinvigorate one of his signature national security objectives — drastically reducing nuclear arsenals around the world — after securing agreement in recent months with the United States military that the American nuclear force can be cut in size by roughly a third,” writes David Sanger for The New York Times.

--”Mr. Obama, according to an official who was involved in the deliberations, ‘believes that we can make pretty radical reductions — and save a lot of money — without compromising American security in the second term. And the Joint Chiefs have signed off on that concept.’” http://owl.li/hC14X

You heard it here first - “Obama administration embraces major new nuclear weapons cut,” reported Jeffrey Smith at the Center for Public Integrity, last Friday. http://bit.ly/YYJ5Qo

Issue Brief - Proposed nuclear reductions could yield billions in budget savings, according to a new Issue Brief from the Arms Control Association. Places for savings: Right-sizing the sub fleet (save $6-$7 billion over 10 years), delay new bomber (save $18 billion over 10 years), Trim ICBM force (save $3-$4 billion over 10 years), and scale back B61 bomb.

--”By revising outdated nuclear war-fighting plans, President Obama is opening the way for lower U.S.-Russian nuclear force levels, reductions involving the world's other nuclear-armed states, and much needed federal budget savings,” write Daryl Kimball and Tom Collina. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/VPPwis

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Nukes in State of the Union - Comprehensive list of nuclear weapons policy statements in State of the Union Speeches - including the buildup under Truman and Reagan’s statement on elimination. From Michael Krepon at Arms Control Wonk.

--President George H. W. Bush, 1992: “Tonight I can tell you of dramatic changes in our strategic nuclear force. These are actions we are taking on our own because they are the right thing to do. After completing 20 planes for which we have begun procurement, we will shut down further production of the B-2 bombers. We will cancel the small ICBM program. We will cease production of new warheads for our sea-based ballistic missiles. We will stop all new production of the Peacekeeper missile. And we will not purchase any more advanced cruise missiles.” http://bit.ly/WUj8NQ

Tweet - @insidedefense: Ohio-class Replacement R&D Design Contract Will Cut Program Cost. Inside the Navy. (paywall) http://t.co/mBmKMmHW

Conversion - In a move similar to last year’s, Iran has resumed converting “small amounts of higher-grade enriched uranium” into fuel “thereby reducing the amount potentially available for nuclear weapons” according to diplomats accredited to the IAEA.

--Though “very, very little has been done so far,” if expanded, the fuel conversion could slow Iran’s progress towards Israel’s “red line” which experts say Iran will hit by May or June if Tehran proceeds at current rates of enrichment. Myra MacDonald and Fredrik Dahl at Reuters have the story.http://owl.li/hC3zU

Missile defense flaws - New studies from the Defense Department point out flaws in the proposed fourth phase of the U.S. missile defense systems planned for Europe. The classified reports conclude that planned deployments of interceptors to Romania and Poland would do little to protect against a hypothetical Iranian ICBM.

--”At a time that the military faces giant budget cuts, the studies could lead Congress to reconsider whether it is worthwhile to spend billions for a system that may not fulfill its original goals.” Desmond Butler at AP has the story. http://bit.ly/WEGCbf

Rocket science is hard - It took France, “more than 40 years to progress from testing a solid-fuel missile that was more capable than [Iran’s] Sajjil to deploying a solid-fuel missile having the range Iran would need to reach targets in the U.S,” writes David Wright in a historical analysis of solid-fuel ICBM development programs.

--”This comparison does not, of course, give a definitive timeline for Iran. But it’s useful nonetheless to give a sense of how difficult a development process this is, and to show that such a missile is almost certainly a couple decades away,” writes Wright at All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/11Bw4hj

Fissile cutoff - The Obama administration is expected to push for a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty in its second term. The treaty, which would block production of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium, was a featured policy goal in President Obama’s Prague speech. Negotiations on the treaty remain blocked the UN Conference on Disarmament by Pakistan. Julian Pecquet in The Hill has the story. http://bit.ly/U61Aj3

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: Thank you #Chad for ratifying the Comprehensive #Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty! Now at 183 signatures & 159 ratifications. #disarmament.

Events:

--President Obama delivers his State of the Union speech. February 12.

--”Evolving Global Security Challenges: From Traditional to Nontraditional Security Challenges.” Joe Cirincione, President of Ploughshares Fund. February 13, 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ Monterey Institute of International Studies. Live stream here. http://owl.li/hrbm7

--Budget Hearing: National Nuclear Security Administration Weapon Activities. February 14, 10:00 a.m. @ Rayburn House Office Building Rm. 2362-B. http://owl.li/htgVW

--”Five Myths About Nuclear Weapons: A Pragmatic Re-appraisal.” Talk by Ward Wilson. February 14, 3:30-5:00 p.m. @ American University, School of International Service. http://owl.li/hkKOD

--”The Korean Peninsula Issues.” Institute for Corean-American Studies. February 15, 1:00-4:30 p.m. @ Rayburn Office Building, Room B. http://owl.li/hr2Ag