Technical Problems May Have Set Back Iranian Nuclear Clock

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 Technical Hitch May Weaken Iran Nuclear Threat - Washington Post [link]

  • The seeming breakthrough in negotiations on Oct. 1 in Geneva -- where Iran agreed to send most of its estimated 1,500 kilograms of low-enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment -- may not have been exactly what it appeared. Iran may have had no alternative but to seek foreign help in enrichment because its own centrifuges wouldn't work.
  • If the Nucleonics Week report is accurate (and there's some uncertainty among experts about how serious the contamination problem is), the Iranian nuclear program is in much worse shape than most analysts had realized.
  • The contaminated fuel it has produced so far would be all but useless for nuclear weapons. To make enough fuel for a bomb, Iran might have to start over -- this time avoiding the impurities.
  • Here's the bottom line: There may be more time on the Iranian nuclear clock than some analysts had feared. 
  • Note: For a more in-depth analysis of the technical problems with Iran's enrichment program, see ArmControlWonk's October 7, 2009 post, "Fun with Molybdenum."

Hannah: Iranians Will (Privately) Greet Us As Liberators! - Wonk Room [link]

  • Dick Cheney’s former national security adviser John Hannah cites unnamed “Iranian activists in Europe, including figures closely linked to the green movement’s leadership” who say that “Sanctions must be imposed, and in strong doses.”
  • Its a bit odd that these unnamed “figures closely linked to the green movement’s leadership” should directly contradict green movement leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Meir Hossein Mousavi, both of whom recently declared their opposition to sanctions.
  • But, of course, the stuff about how Iranians secretly desire sanctions is really just intended to move the Overton window to frame Hannah’s real question: “What about military action?”
  • In addition to very probably killing the green movement, a U.S. attack on Iran would likely have a number of other extraordinarily bad consequences for U.S. security and that of our allies.

Quick Accord Sought on Iran's Uranium Export - Associated Press 

  • World powers want Iran to agree quickly to the export of low-enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment as it would reduce the risk of the material going for nuclear weapons, France's Foreign Ministry said Thursday.
  • The Monday meeting follows a landmark encounter between Iran and Western powers in Geneva in early October that put long-stalled negotiations back on track.

Berman Schedules Iran Petroleum Sanctions Bill Mark-Up - Laura Rozen in Politico [link]

  • Rep. Howard Berman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has scheduled a mark-up next Wednesday for legislation that would ban Iran's import of refined petroleum products.
  • “I view this legislation as the fourth best option to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability," Berman said in a press release. "My first preference is to resolve the nuclear issue through diplomatic means, and I strongly support the Obama Administration’s efforts to engage Iran.

More Republican Shenanigans on New START - Nukes of Hazard [link]

  • Over at the Plank, friend-of-NOH Barron Youngsmith takes Republicans to task for arguing that the START follow-on treaty is somehow going to drastically limit U.S. programs to place conventional warheads on ballistic missiles, ballistic missile submarines, and bombers (i.e prompt global strike, etc.)
  • The range for delivery vehicles contained in the Joint Understanding is best viewed as the opening positions of the two countries.  
  • The bottom line is that assuming the U.S. and Russia can agree to new elimination, counting, and inspection rules, which should be doable, the U.S. can live with a delivery vehicle limit of around 800, which comports with the number of nuclear-armed systems it actually deploys and would not require it to eliminate bombers, missiles, and subs that have been converted to conventional roles (since they would not count against the limit under the new counting rules).

A View from the Dark Side

Bolton Suggests Nuclear Attack on Iran - Inter Press Service [link]

  • Discussing Iran during a Tuesday speech at the University of Chicago, Bolton appeared to call for nothing less than an Israeli nuclear first strike against the Islamic Republic.
  • “Negotiations have failed, and so too have sanctions,” Bolton said, echoing his previously-stated belief that sanctions will prove ineffectual in changing Tehran’s behavior. “So we’re at a very unhappy point — a very unhappy point — where unless Israel is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program, Iran will have nuclear weapons in the very near future.”

The Lighter Side

Obama to Enter Diplomatic Talks with Raging Wildfire - The Onion [link]