Adm. Mullen - “As of today, there is no more credible path of reducing the likelihood of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon than this potential deal. Those who say the risks are too high with the current deal offer no constructive path forward save the high potential for war,” writes Adm. Mike Mullen in POLITICO.
--“There is a view that all we need to do is intensify sanctions. A great irony is that it is now the Revolutionary Guard and other hardliners who are getting rich on the sanctions, for they control the black market. It may be that sanctions have reached the point of diminishing returns.”
--“If the hardliners prevail in the long run, the likelihood of both Iran achieving nuclear capability, the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, and the outbreak of conflict rises sharply.” http://politi.co/1HbclqR [1]
Numbers - If the Corker bill passes, and if Congress votes against the final deal, Republicans would still need at least 13 Senate Democrats and 44 House Democrats to override a presidential veto -- a hurdle they’ll have a hard time clearing, POLITICO reports. http://politi.co/1HbaTos [2]
Next round - “Iran Nuclear Talks to Resume in Vienna April 22-23” from AP. http://abcn.ws/1yy3YVf [3]
Zbig - “The strategic implications [of the framework agreement with Iran] for the United States are, in the short-run, that it reduces the possibility that the United States will be driven into a war against Iran, which would then contribute to a wider outbreak of violence and disorder in the region as a whole. Very few countries in the immediate proximity of Iran really wish that to happen. And neither do the established major countries which participated with the United States in the tentative accommodation that is now underway,” said Zbigniew Brzezinski in an interview with World Post.
--“If this effort at achieving some stability and continuity in consolidating a wider and deeper accommodation with Iran is successful, it will be a major contribution to tempering conflict in the region. It is quite evident that, currently, the obvious alternative is escalating chaos, possibly complicated by a further and potentially more significant regional war which some of the critics of the agreement seem to be advocating without much concern for its consequences.” http://huff.to/1NQeNbY [4]
Big read - “How Israel Hid Its Secret Nuclear Weapons Program” by Avner Cohen and William Burr in Politico Magazine.
--Preview: “An exclusive look inside newly declassified documents shows how Israel blocked U.S. efforts to uncover its secret nuclear reactor.” http://politi.co/1JMKE7u [5]
Remaining gaps - An overview of the points of contention between the P5+1 and Iran, from the AP. http://wapo.st/1Hbfw21 [6]
Two-level game - “Putin Says Iran Seeks Nuclear Accord as He Defends Missile Deal” by Ilya Arkhipov and Andrey Biryukov for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1Ii4iqX [7]
Effects of Corker bill - The recent Senate action on a bill to check the President’s authority to waive sanctions on Iran will complicate things for U.S. negotiators in upcoming talks with Iran. “If I were an Iranian negotiator, I would walk into that room and say ‘you told us all along you were going to stop legislation,’” said Richard Nephew, a former U.S. negotiator. “Will it be fatal? No...It’s going to make things a lot harder, a lot more complicated, a lot more difficult for the (U.S.) negotiating side.”
--Arshad Mohammad of Reuters has the full analysis on the bill and the effects on negotiations with Iran. http://reut.rs/1ELW37L [8]
IAEA update - The IAEA and Iran had a “constructive exchange” on resolving concerns over Iran’s past nuclear program and will meet again “in the near future,” an IAEA spokesperson told Reuters. http://reut.rs/1CRN8M1 [9]
Intel success - “The intelligence community has done well to keep up with Iran’s nuclear activities over the last decade. There is no obvious flaw in its conclusions or evidence that has reversed course,” writes Joshua Rovner in The National Interest. “Indeed, this looks like an analytical success story. The 2007 NIE had the basics right, and estimates evolved as the intelligence community acquired new information.” http://bit.ly/1zkIczb [10]
Risky game - “While the bill approved unanimously Tuesday by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee could have been worse, it is still ill-timed and could make an agreement less likely, which is the not-so-ulterior motive of at least some of the bill's supporters,” writes the LA Times editorial board.
--“Iranian leadership opposed to a deal might see the push for legislation as proof that Congress is determined to sabotage any agreement. We continue to believe Congress should refrain from legislating until the negotiators complete their work.” http://lat.ms/1DLFzLY [11]
Dessert:
Start Wars - “When it comes to bombing countries or sending advisers to countries or drone-striking countries, Congress is a girl that just can’t say no. But when it comes to cooperating with countries, treaties — ‘Hold on there, mister! What you doin’ there?’” Jon Stewart on how some members of Congress are wary of talking but all too eager to bomb Iran. http://on.cc.com/1E5Dgpe [12]