On the radar: The outlook for a deal; Urging a sanctions pause; Levin opposed to sanctions in NDAA; Diplomats urge diplomacy; MEWMDFZ talks; and George W. Bush’s complicated relationship with Vladimir Putin.

November 6, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Geoffrey Wilson

Accepting “Yes” - “After years of fruitless negotiations, the United States may soon face an unfamiliar problem in its long confrontation with Iran: Are we willing to take yes for an answer?” asks Doyle McManus of The Los Angeles Times.

--With negotiators scheduled to meet again in Geneva this week, both sides face mounting internal pressure - from Iranian hardliners that don’t want to see Iran’s sovereignty limited or from U.S. lawmakers who want Iran to cease all forms of nuclear activity. Both sides will need to compromise. Yet the question remains, if negotiators can reach a deal, will lawmakers be willing to accept it back at home? “A nuclear deal with Iran, if one can be struck, will deserve tough scrutiny. But we have to be willing to take yes for an answer.” Full story here. http://lat.ms/1b5zElW [1]

Outlook - “Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said on Tuesday a framework deal with world powers on its nuclear work was ‘possible this week,’” reports Reuters. However he tempered expectations by saying that, “if we don’t make a breakthrough at this round it’s not a disaster.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1apJTx1 [2]

Pausing sanctions - ”New sanctions passed before a true test of Iran’s intentions could result in a bleak future: a risky and costly war with Iran with no guarantee of success, or the acceptance of an increasingly embittered, isolated, repressive and nuclear capable Islamic Republic,” writes Alireza Nader for The Hill. Full post here. http://bit.ly/HxpC20 [3]

The alternative - ”The deal the Obama administration is pursuing with Iran over its nuclear program is a good deal. It will leave Iran with neither a nuclear weapon nor an undetectable breakout capability...The alternative to this deal -- the continuation of the sanctions path -- will see Iran continue to inch toward a nuclear weapons option while the U.S. and Iran gravitate toward a disastrous military confrontation,” writes Trita Parsi for CNN. http://cnn.it/1hjkKxJ [4]

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NDAA and the sanctions push - “The fight over new sanctions against Iran is poised to move to the Defense authorization bill that will be on the floor later this month,” says Jeremy Herb of The Hill.

--Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI), who will manage the authorization bill on the floor, said he was opposed to adding new sanctions. “We should explore the possibilities of working out something with Iran,” said Levin. “As skeptical as we are, we ought to explore that without adding to the sanctions that exist.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/19zy8Im [9]

Ambassadors on dealing with Iran - Seven former European ambassadors to Iran released a joint statement yesterday, urging the international community to stop posturing toward Iran and pursue a timely diplomatic resolution to the nuclear impasse.

--“The direction these negotiations take will determine whether Iran’s own situation will become even worse and its behavior more extreme, or whether it will make progress in welfare, civil liberties and human rights,” write the ambassadors. “We encourage [the diplomats] to negotiate firmly, concretely and with a full intention to succeed. You cannot afford to disappoint the people of the region and beyond.” Full statement in Haaretz. http://bit.ly/HF1R8U [10]

Tweet - @Cirincione [11]: Hagel signals upcoming DOD budget could rebalance between nuclear & conventional. It's about time. http://bit.ly/17EVezb [12]

Mid-East WMD-free zone talks - “Iran, Israel and Arab states took part in a meeting two weeks ago about prospects for an international conference on banning nuclear weapons in the Middle East,” reports Reuters. According to one anonymous diplomat, 13 to 14 national delegations met in the Swiss village of Glion, including representatives from the United States.

--A plan for an international conference banning weapons of mass destruction in the Mid-East was agreed to in 2010 by the U.S., Russia and the U.K., but the conference itself was abruptly delayed in 2012. The recent thawing of relations between the U.S. and Iran, following the election of Iran’s pragmatic new president, Hassan Rouhani, “has raised hopes of a peaceful settlement with world powers.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1apaw5n [13]

DNFSB report - The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board just released a “Draft Revised Strategic Plan FY 2014-2018” (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1hiGqdj [14]

Iran and BMD - Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that the U.S. planned to go ahead with its missile-defense plans for Europe despite improving relations with Iran, reports Patryk Wasilewski of the WSJ. Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/HxPLOE [15]

Tweet - @SchwartzCNS [16]: MIT students replicating study find error led to overstating effect of nuke deterrence by "factor of several million" http://bit.ly/HxlmiY [17]

Remembered - “Col. Sam Skemp Cultivated Nuclear Warheads and Roses.” Col. Skemp, who passed away last month, worked alongside Wernher Von Braun on early ballistic missiles and spent his later years tending the roses at the Florida Botanical Gardens. Obituary in The Tampa Bay Times. http://bit.ly/187bHq0 [18]

Events:

--”Denying WMD To Terrorists And Other Criminals: A Progress Report” Discussion with Simon Limage, Rick Cupitt, Johan Bergenas and Brian Finlay. Nov. 8 from 3:00-4:00pm at Stimson. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1azP43I [19]

--”Cost and benefits to US strategic interests from UK renewal of Trident.” Discussion with Paul Ingram and Peter Huessy at the Capitol Hill Club. Nov. 12 from 8:00-9:30am. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1aYdFNN [20]

--”The Nuclear Crisis at Plutonium Mountain: Two Journalists' Tale.” Discussion with Eben Harrell and David Hoffman at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Nov. 13th from 10:00-11:00am. http://hvrd.me/1cHk6Eg [21]

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg [22]

Recent history:

George and Vlad - President George W. Bush, known for having once peered into Vladimir Putin’s soul and finding a diplomatic partner, had a bit of a falling out with Putin toward the end of Bush’s time in office. “The story of Bush's eight-year pas de deux with the master of the Kremlin, reconstructed through interviews with key players and secret notes and memos, offers lessons for President Obama as he struggles to define his own approach to Putin and shape the future of the two nuclear powers,” writes Peter Baker, author of the new book Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House.

--Full article in Foreign Policy: “The Seduction of George W. Bush: How the president of good and evil bromanced Vladimir Putin. And how a warm friendship turned to ice.” Full article here. http://atfp.co/187ypyg [23]