On the radar: Missiles lacking plausible mission; $10 billion nuclear budget buster; “Iran After the Bomb”; Sub pounding budgets; Debating Navy’s requirement; Nawaz Sharif’s pivot; and When military exercises stop being polite and start getting real.

May 17, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Nothing to appreciate - The Air Force is benching 17 ICBM launch officers after they failed to meet readiness standards, according to recent press reports. This adds to a series of nuclear mishaps in 2007 and 2008 and a pile of Pentagon reports warning that the “loss of attention and focus, downgrading, dilution, and dispersal of officers and personnel" involved in the nuclear mission reflects "a failure to appreciate the larger role of deterrence."

-- “‘Failure to appreciate’ is one way of looking at it,” writes Jeffrey Lewis. “One might, on the other hand, argue that the lack of appreciation stems from the fact that there isn't anything to appreciate. Many of these weapons no longer have plausible military missions. The people handling them know that, and act accordingly. The problem isn't that they don't ‘get it.’ The problem is that they do.”

--The message that these incidents sends seems pretty clear to me: eliminate nuclear weapons that have no plausible military mission. We can't fool the people assigned to them.” Full post at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/13B3v1W [1]

How it played - “Cold War Malaise at Launch Control” by The New York Times’ Editorial Board. http://owl.li/l8kKV [2]

Speaking of weapons without missions - The Obama administration is asking for $10.4 billion to upgrade 400 B-61 nuclear bombs - more than $25 million per bomb. “The military admits that, in the time it will take to upgrade all 400 B61s, the bomb will become obsolete,” writes Madelyn Hoffman in New Jersey’s The Record.

--”How can we justify spending billions of dollars on unwanted, unnecessary weapons of war when the automatic sequestration cuts already affect vital federal programs and state and local governments feel compelled to cut social programs as revenues from taxes continue to shrink?” http://bit.ly/15Thfsz [3]

Hot off the presses - “Iran After the Bomb: How Would a Nuclear-Armed Tehran Behave?” New report by Alireza Nader of RAND. PDF here. http://bit.ly/14x8e3J [4]

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--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [7]. Want to support this work? Click here [8].

YouTube intercept - Missile Defense Agency video of SM-3 IB flight test (FTM-19). http://bit.ly/15TlYui [9]

Moniz confirmed - In a vote of 97-0, the Senate confirmed nuclear physicist and MIT professor, Ernest Moniz as secretary of energy. Moniz’s nomination was put on hold by Sen. Lindsey Graham in protest to the administration’s cuts to a MOX plant in his district. Lucia Graves at The Huffington Post has the story. http://owl.li/l8gJ7 [10]

Questioning trident replacement - The UK’s Coalition government is forging ahead with the country’s program to replace the Trident nuclear weapon system despite a “thin...strategic security” rationale for maintaining its nuclear weapons, high costs, tight budgets, and waning public support. Liberal Democrats are looking for “smaller, cheaper” alternatives through a “government sanctioned Trident Alternatives Study,” but some question whether the program is necessary at all.

--Its expensive ($32 billion) to replace the system and $2.5-3 billion in annual maintenance costs. The program is taking funds away from other necessary conventional military capabilities. It doesn’t meet top current and future threats, writes Nick Ritchie at The Conversation. http://owl.li/l8s6s [11]

Debating sub requirements - In a recent blog post, Rear. Adm. Richard Breckenridge, defends the 14 replacement SSBNs the U.S. Navy plans to build, saying its “the right number of SSBNs to provide our required sea-based deterrent.” Only one problem: “the Navy does not have enough money budgeted to pay the extra $5 billion a year the new subs will cost above the current shipbuilding plan.”

--The admiral is likely responding to an argument by Hans Kristensen at the Federation of American Scientists that the number of deterrence patrols the subs have done has significantly decreased which he says suggests the Navy really doesn’t need all 14 subs, writes Colin Clark at Breaking Defense. http://owl.li/l8nJe [12]

Pork watch - “S.C., Georgia senators voice MOX support” from AP’s Meg Kinnard in The Augusta Chronicle. http://bit.ly/15TcgYP [13]

Pakistan rapprochement politics - Nawaz Sharif, the victor in Pakistan’s recent elections, indicated that he wants to make strides improving relations with India. “This is all to the good, and has received recognition as such in India,” writes Paul Pillar. However, “The more political risks Sharif takes in improving relations with that adversary, the more he will have to bolster his nationalist credentials elsewhere, including on matters involving relations with the United States.” Full analysis at The National Interest. http://bit.ly/17F0osZ [14]

Article - "Insights on the Nuclear Negotiations with Iran" by Olli Heinonen for Middle East Journal. http://hvrd.me/18Q1Tne [15]

Tweet - @IISS_org [16]: As #nuclear strategists remember a (controversial) leader in the field, recall Kenneth Waltz’s seminal Adelphi here. bit.ly/19EtQvR [17]

Events:

--"Strengthening ROK-U.S. Strategic Cooperation: Nuclear Governance and the North Korean Problem," Gary Samore and 12 other speakers. May 17, 9:00am-4:00pm. CSIS, B1, Conference Center. Details here. http://owl.li/kYFWU [18]

--House Foreign Affairs Committee, markup of the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013, H.R. 850. May 22, time TBD. 2172 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/l3A4S [19]

--”Options for Reducing Nuclear Arms,” Bruce Blair, Keith Payne, and Steven Pifer. Moderated by Michael O’Hanlon. May 22, 10:00-11:30am @ Brookings. Details here. http://owl.li/l3xE2 [20]

--”The Kaleidoscope Turns Again in a Crisis-Challenged Iran,” Yasmin Alem and Suzanne Maloney, moderated by Barbara Slavin. May 30, 12:00-1:30 pm @ The Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/l8cYq [21]

Dessert:

Tweet - @wellerstein [22]: The world's first nuclear-powered soda machine. Onboard the Nautilus nuclear sub, May 1956. http://t.co/vpvXLC9pse [23]

Able Archer 83 - For 10 days in November 1983, the U.S. and Soviet union nearly started a nuclear war - over a military exercise. “That exercise, Able Archer 83, simulated the transition by NATO from a conventional war to a nuclear war, culminating in the simulated release of warheads against the Soviet Union.” It also prompted the Soviet Union to ready its nuclear forces for armageddon.

--Robert Beckhusen at Danger Room writes about a trove of newly declassified documents from the one of the most dangerous moments in the Cold War. http://bit.ly/1861qfk [24]