On the radar: Tangled web of sanctions; Nuclear shutdown; Obama and Netanyahu; Ashton on talks; and Subcontinent summitry.

October 1, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Tangled - Any deal with Iran will involve sanctions relief, but, after 34 years of accumulating sanctions, removing them could be complicated and politically difficult.

--Existing sanctions have extremely high requirements for their removal - ranging from full compliance with the IAEA (good) to transforming Iran into a liberal democracy (unlikely). Removing them would require action from the U.S., the EU and the UN. For the U.S., that means annulling sanctions from 16 executive orders and getting a hostile, warring Congress to vote on overturning any of its nine sanctions imposed through legislation.

--”Unless Obama can unite a divided legislature and rally the international community behind his push for diplomacy with Iran, the enormous inertia of the current system risks keeping it largely immobile. And if the U.S. cannot provide the relief that Iran craves, Iran’s motivation to comply with American demands will quickly deteriorate. A stick without a carrot is hardly worth bargaining for,” writes Kaveh Waddell for The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/15IVHtE [1]

Nuclear shutdown - The National Nuclear Security Administration said that 343 of its approximately 3,000 federal employees, plus two executives, will continue to work through the government shutdown on issues connected with nuclear weapons, naval reactors and nonproliferation programs. David Perera reports. http://bit.ly/GzERaS [2]

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Remarks - “We have to test diplomacy. We have to see if, in fact, [Iran is] serious about their willingness to abide by international norms and international law and international requirements and resolutions. And we in good faith will approach them, indicating that it is our preference to resolve these issues diplomatically,” said President Obama in remarks after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Full remarks here. http://1.usa.gov/15IXhf5 [7]

Netanyahu’s speech - ”Israeli Leader Excoriates New President of Iran” by Somini Sengupta and Rick Gladstone for The New York Times. http://bit.ly/1eXkSB8 [8]

Tweet - @AlirezaNader [9]: Netanyahu doesn't trust Rouhani, but there is nothing to fear in testing Iran's new approach. http://bit.ly/1eXkSB8 [8]

Atmosphere - I would like to get to Geneva with the best possible atmosphere to really have these negotiations," said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, referring to upcoming talks between Iran and six major powers: Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. "And that means, in all sorts of ways, we need to show willingness and good faith to sit down and talk and expect the same in return.” Reuters has the quote. http://reut.rs/1fGlhZV [10]

What to look for - “The Six Things That Will Determine Obama's Success With Iran” by David Rohde for The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/15ITBtP [11]

Subcontinent summitry - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met for an hour on Sunday in New York, in an effort to increase cooperation between the rival countries. In the meeting, the two “agreed to restore the 2003 cross-border ceasefire which has been holding the peace in disputed Kashmir.” Wajahat Khan of NBC News has the story. http://nbcnews.to/1eXcfGI [12]

Speed reads:

--”Don’t bet on new missiles at Fort Drum” by Tim Farnsworth and Tom Collina in The Watertown Daily Times. http://bit.ly/GzEQno [13]

--”Senate to grill official on Iran” by Julian Pecquet for The Hill. http://bit.ly/17oyRLo [14]

Events:

--”An Assessment of Rouhani’s Visit to New York: Real Diplomacy or Failed Expectations?” Discussion with Robin Wright and Meir Javedanfar at the Wilson Center. October 2nd from noon-1:00pm.http://bit.ly/15EFxa1 [15]

--”Reversing Iran’s Nuclear Program” Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee with Testimony from Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. October 3rd at 10am in Dirksen 419. Details and webcast. http://1.usa.gov/18FVpYx [16]

--"Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century." Former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov speaks at Georgetown. October 3 at 6:00pm. Details and RSVP. http://bit.ly/19iqOwd [17]

--"Preventing Nuclear War in South Asia: Unprecendented Challenges, Unprecedented Solutions" Discussion with George Perkovich. October 3rd at 6:00pm in Harvard’s NYE Conference Center. Details here. http://hvrd.me/19QnKs5 [18]

--”Getting to Yes With Iran” Discussion with George Perkovich. October 4th from 9:30-11:00am at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Details here. http://hvrd.me/14XROUt [19]

--50th anniversary of JFK signing the Limited Test Ban Treaty. http://bit.ly/18FCzPa [20]

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble and Laura Odato of CATO Institute. Oct. 8th at noon in the Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dS3evw [21]