On the radar: Long history of delays and budget explosions; US-Russia ink risk reduction agreement; Testing Iran’s seriousness; Congress and Iran negotiations; Navy’s sub fund not official; and Netanyahu’s many metaphors.

October 7, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

The labs’ hometown paper - “Runaway regulation, excessive bureaucratic red tape and incompetence are so clogging the work pipeline that the lab and the National Nuclear Security Administration that oversees it are virtually ineffective when it comes to getting some very large and very expensive projects off the dime,” writes The Albuquerque Journal in an editorial titled “Bureaucratic Ineptitude Entrenched at LANL.”

--”Newest example is the lack of progress on a new nuclear waste treatment plant. An analysis by the U.S. Inspector General’s office says the lab is a decade behind schedule and $129 million over budget in replacing the aging plant where radioactive liquid waste is treated – after spending $56 million on just design work.”

--The editorial argues that top officials at Los Alamos National Labs are still getting paid under government shutdown, but continue to show no progress controlling the costs of nuclear weapons projects. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1bCHne2 [1]

Risk reduction - The U.S. and Russia agreed to update a 1987 agreement undergirding the operation of National Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers. These center in Washington and Moscow provide time-sensitive communications required by arms control agreements. Bloomberg has the story. http://bloom.bg/15RC9IW [2]

--”The Cold War is now long over, but thousands of nuclear weapons remain, and we both recognize a responsibility to do everything possible to keep each other apprised of important developments in order to avoid misunderstandings and potentially catastrophic consequences,” said Sec. Kerry on the signing of the agreement. Full remarks with Foreign Minister Lavrov here. http://1.usa.gov/1e45Vdy [3]

Tweet - @peterbakernyt [4]: More Russians worry about ties w/US: 46% say new cold war is possible, up from 37% in 2009, according to VTsIOM http://bit.ly/1gjXA7z [5]

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--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [8]. Want to support this work? Click here [9].

Obama on Iran - “if in fact [President Rouhani] is able to present a credible plan that says Iran is pursuing peaceful nuclear energy but we're not pursuing nuclear weapons, and we are willing to be part of a internationally verified structure so that all other countries in the world know they are not pursuing nuclear weapons, then, in fact, they can improve relations, improve their economy. And we should test that,” said President Obama in an interview with AP.

--”it is very much in not only the United States' interest but also Israel's interest to see if we can resolve this without some sort of military conflict. And so we now have the time to have those serious conversations, and we'll be able to measure how serious the Iranians are.” Full interview here. http://bit.ly/1e4g6ib [10]

The 535 other negotiating partners - “In talks with Iran set to resume in Geneva in mid-October, the White House must weigh two competing challenges: coaxing Tehran to stop uranium enrichment and other nuclear work, and winning support from a Congress that is skeptical of easing sanctions against Iran,” writes Paul Richter in The LA Times.

--Only Congress can permanently lift the sanctions it has imposed upon Iran, yet some in congress appear skeptical of lifting sanctions as part of a nuclear deal. Richter notes that Congress’ penchant for punishing Iran has developed a “good-cop, bad cop dynamic with the White House,” but there is the real risk that another round of harsh sanctions could embolden hardliners in Iran and jeopardize a diplomatic opening. Full story here. http://lat.ms/1fd7EjH [11]

Aegis test - Last Friday morning, the Navy tested its Aegis missile defense system - successfully intercepting a medium-range missile target using an SM-3 Block IB interceptor. DoD press release here. http://1.usa.gov/GITHvQ [12]

Naval budget maneuvers - The Navy recently sought congressional support for a $60 billion supplemental to help pay for a new fleet of ballistic missile submarines. The Department of Defense, however, has not approved nor has the Navy officially requested such money because “such a request would not be required for several years,” a Pentagon spokesman told Arms Control Today.

--The Navy’s budget move is the latest sign of of how much pressure the $100 billion sub program is putting on tightening shipbuilding budgets. Tom Collina outlines the program, its costs and future decisions about the size of the sub force. http://bit.ly/17gv0fh [13]

Syria - ”Syria shows signs of preparing to surrender its chemical-weapons stockpile” by Joby Warrick of The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/17NXsJT [14]

What if? - “Would the atomic bomb have been used against Germany?” asks Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data.

--“The long and short of it is, of course, that they didn’t have the bombs ready to use in the European theatre, knew they wouldn’t from fairly early on, and so never took the time to try and clarify the logistical issues that would have made it practicable. But Roosevelt’s question to Groves [about the option] does leave open the possibility that they might have done it, if all of those things had turned out differently,” writes Wellerstein. http://bit.ly/15huEIL [15]

Events:

--50th anniversary of JFK signing the Limited Test Ban Treaty. October 7th. http://bit.ly/18FCzPa [16]

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble and Laura Odato of CATO Institute. Oct. 8th at noon in the Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dS3evw [17]

--”A Discussion with Ken Pollack, Author of Unthinkable” Wed. Oct. 16 from noon-1:00 at the Middle East Institute. Details here. http://bit.ly/1b3xnX3 [18]

--”Minimum Deterrence: Examining the Evidence” discussion with Doug Feith, John Harvey, Amb. Robert Joseph, Adm. Richard Miles and Keith Payne at the Hudson Institute. Wed. Oct. 16th from 12:00-1:30pm. Lunch will be provided. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/17g8Dqg [19]

--”The End of Overkill? Reassessing U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Elbridge Colby, Hans Kristensen, Matt Fay and Christopher Preble. Oct. 15th at noon at the CATO Institute. http://bit.ly/1hwKUYC [20]

Dessert:

Metaphorically speaking - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is well versed in the art of the metaphor and is famous for cartoonizing his government’s stance on Iran’s nuclear program at the UN last year. Ty McCormick and Ed Johnson at Foreign Policy imagine, “What if Bibi illustrated all of his metaphors?”

--Newly illustrated Iran metaphors include: open books, wolves, sheep, footballs, nuclear ducks, and yellow cake. See the thought experiment here. http://atfp.co/16O9g0V [21]

See also - “A Wolf, a Sheep, or What?” by Tom Friedman of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/15hINFW [22]