On the radar: Giving Rouhani time; FM Zarif new negotiator; Arms control after the non-summit with Russia; and Can Iran help the U.S. in Syria.
September 5, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus
Tweet - @HassanRouhani [1]: Foreign Ministry will be in charge of Iran's #Nuclear Negotiations. Ready for constructive interaction with the world. http://t.co/sCrQ0Qhh5K [2]
Space for negotiation - Unlike in previous meetings, world powers will avoid passing resolutions intended to reprimand Iran on its nuclear program at this month’s IAEA meeting. They want to give the country’s new leadership time to “translate its words into action,” said Western diplomats. However, diplomats “stressed that concrete progress is needed soon on the dispute,” and expressed the need for Tehran to use an IAEA-Iranian meeting on September 27 to convey a “different message” to the international community. Fredrik Dahl at Reuters has the story. http://ow.ly/oAL9L [3]
Rouhani at UN - Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, will attend the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly scheduled to begin September 17. “The visit will give Mr. Rouhani his first big opportunity abroad to distinguish himself from his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” writes Rick Gladstone at The New York Times. http://ow.ly/oAO3Q [4]
Solving the puzzle - “It remains our conclusion that a deal that sets reasonable limits on Iran’s enrichment activities, its nuclear materials stockpiles, and other sensitive nuclear fuel-cycle activities, combined with more extensive IAEA safeguards, could sufficiently guard against a nuclear-armed Iran. Pursuing such a course is difficult, but it is clearly the best option on the table,” writes Daryl Kimball in a new report analyzing of the state of play with Iran’s nuclear program and the risks and benefits of U.S. policy options.
--”There is still time for diplomacy, but both sides need to move with greater urgency toward a lasting solution. The inauguration of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran on August 3 provides an important opportunity to reinvigorate negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group that President Barack Obama and other key leaders must seize,” writes Kimball.
--Briefing book covers Iran’s program, sanctions, the military option, and goals for a diplomatic solution. “Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle” from the Arms Control Association. (pdf) http://bit.ly/15BT8z6 [5]
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--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [8]. Want to support this work? Click here [9].
Russian disengagement - “The near-term prospects for progress on arms control—whether on further strategic nuclear reductions, confidence and transparency measures regarding non-strategic weapons or missile defense—are uncertain,” writes Steven Pifer of Brookings, in an analysis of the recent cooling of US-Russian relations.
--”The White House has left the door open, and U.S. officials continue to engage their Russian counterparts in hopes that Moscow might decide to take a more forthcoming approach. But there is also a risk that Obama will draw the conclusion that Putin cannot—or will not—engage seriously on issues key to his White House agenda. If so, the U.S.-Russia relationship could see a further degree of presidential disengagement.” http://bit.ly/1cKHDVg [10]
Softening Syria support - While Iran continues to condemn U.S. strikes on Syria, a “shift in tone from Tehran has become increasingly apparent in recent days, with public comments by Iranian officials and commentary in government-controlled newspapers suggesting that Tehran’s support for Assad may not be entirely unconditional.”
--In an interview Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, “We believe that the government in Syria has made grave mistakes that have, unfortunately, paved the way for the situation in the country to be abused.” Yesterday, president Rouhani “told a key decision-making body here that Syria’s stability and security remain top priorities, but he made no mention of offering military support to President Bashar al-Assad,” writes Jason Rezaian in The Washington Post http://ow.ly/oAQVd [11]
Debate - “Can Iran Help the U.S. in Syria?” asks The New York Times. Selection of expert responses below, all responses at this link. http://nyti.ms/17Hd2Vn [12]
--”Cooperation on Syria could be an opportunity to decrease U.S.-Iran hostilities and usher in an era of cooperation for the betterment of the whole region and beyond. This opportunity for peace and stability should not be missed,” writes Seyed Hossein Mousavian, though he warns that such diplomatic cooperation could be spoiled by a U.S. strike on Syria. http://nyti.ms/15y8P4v [13]
--”Washington may choose to ignore [the need to ease tensions with Iran] and continue to see Syria as an arena for weakening Iran instead of a place in dire need of coordinated regional and global efforts. But this would be the result of a misguided policy and not an inevitable result of the attack on Syria,” writes Farideh Farhi. http://nyti.ms/151RnZp [14]
--”As long as Iran sees itself embroiled in a zero-sum game in Syria, a half-way meeting point, however desirable, will likely remain elusive,” writes Karim Sadjadpour. http://nyti.ms/14mX6uw [15]
Background - ”Everything you need to know about Syria’s chemical weapons” by Brad Plumer for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1dJLG7i [16]
Report(s) - CSIS’ Project on Nuclear Issues has a new volume of “Nuclear Notes,” featuring analysis from rising nuclear experts. Topics include reconstructing the 1251 report, restarting arms control after New START, and threats to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Full report here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1aSlbLO [17]
Tweet - @defense_news [18]: North Korea agrees to reopen military hotline to South. bit.ly/1dTUmJ7 [19]
Speed reads:
--”Pakistan and the Nuclear Nightmare” by Dan Twining for Shadow Government. http://atfp.co/1eip9Nn [20]
--”Russian Early Warning System in Action” by Pavel Podvig at Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces. http://bit.ly/17aSohq [21]
Events:
--”Striking Syria: Obama, Congress and Military Action.” Discussion with Michael Doran, Fiona Hill, Suzanne Maloney, Bruce Riedel, Jeremy Shapiro and Michael O’Hanlon. September 5, 3:00-4:30 PM @ Brookings. Details here. http://bit.ly/1ajiLXg [22]
--”The Path to Zero: The role of the United Nations in Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.” September 5, 10:00 AM. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/ [23]
--”Prospects for a Diplomatic Solution with Iran,” Ray Takeyh, Joel Rubin, and Greg Thielmann. September 10, 12:30-2:00 PM @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow7H1 [24]
--”U.S.-Iran Reconciliation Under President Rouhani?” Haleh Esfandiari, Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Katzman. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 12, 9:30 AM @ the Atlantic Council. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow8uO [25]
Topic
- Early Warning [26]
- IAEA [27]
- Hassan Rouhani [28]
- P5+1 [29]
- Syria [30]
- Mohammad Javad Zarif [31]
- UNGA [32]