On the radar: A deal vs. brut economic reform; Cobalt-60 stolen; Monitoring the deal; Befriend the scientists; Missile defense and the Iran deal; China’s nuclear views; and Putin talks PGM.

December 4, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Breaking - Thieves in Mexico made off with a truck carrying an amount of cobalt-60, a highly radioactive material that could potentially be used in a dirty bomb. Mexican authorities informed the IAEA that the truck was stolen. Reuters has the report. http://reut.rs/INq4dD [1]

At a crossroads - Economic considerations may factor in more than ideological ones for Iran as it negotiates a comprehensive nuclear deal. “Iran is at a crossroads. It is weighing the relative benefits of deal-making and economic reform, and is experimenting with both,” writes Vali Nasr.

--”For the United States and other nations seeking to rein in Iran’s nuclear program for good, it would be better to tie the fortunes of Iran’s economy to diplomacy than to insist on a level of sanctions so onerous as to challenge Iran to forgo a deal, continue its nuclear program and gamble that reforms alone — rather than international trade — can keep its economy afloat.”

--”It is better for the United States to keep open its trial run at compromise, in hopes that Iran will be convinced — six months from now — that a permanent, verifiable nuclear deal is the only way to secure a prosperous future.” From The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1cY6y6U [2]

Monitoring Iran - Under the interim deal, what exactly will the IAEA be doing in Iran? Mark Hibbs discusses whether the IAEA has sufficient authority to monitor Iran’s nuclear program under the deal, where the problem areas might be and if the IAEA has enough resources to implement its mission. Full analysis at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1bIld9M [3]

Work with the scientists - “The real key to a permanent resolution of this crisis, however, is to convince Iran’s nuclear scientific and technical workers to become not just the object of reform efforts but their driver,” writes Jacques Hymans.

--”In line with this objective, the United States should immediately start promoting the development of collaborative relationships between American and Iranian universities and research institutions, including laboratories that have links with the nuclear program…The reintegration of Iranian researchers into the global scientific community would also produce the right conditions for mutual trust and the eventual disclosure of Iran’s own technical secrets.” Full article in Foreign Affairs. http://fam.ag/1bgmh1X [4]

Going nuclear - Tweets @BennettJohnT [5]: Rep. Hunter: US Should Use Tactical Nukes on Iran if Strikes Become Necessary http://t.co/TtREDsaPA8 [6]

WH on sanctions - “The White House said on Tuesday it opposes a fresh effort by some members of the U.S. Senate to impose new sanctions against Iran, even if the new restrictions would not take effect for months,” reports Patricia Zengerle and Steve Holland for Reuters. http://reut.rs/19h6j4t [7]

Poll - “Security Insiders Poll: World Struck 'Good Deal' With Iran” by Sara Sorcher for National Journal. http://bit.ly/189L75s [8]

The “adaptive” part of the EPAA - “An international deal aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons will in the long run eliminate any need for a missile defense system in Europe, Russia's foreign minister said Wednesday.” AP has the story. http://abcn.ws/1azgReS [9]

Not quite there yet - Would the U.S. still need missile defense in Europe after a comprehensive deal with Iran? “Perhaps,” offers Steve Pifer. If the threat of an Iran with nuclear-tipped missiles were to diminish, the U.S. and NATO could begin to reconsider deployments of phases 2 and 3 of the system in Europe. But first the P5+1 and Iran need a comprehensive deal that settles broader differences with Tehran. Then NATO would need “considerable time” to decide how to promote alliance cohesion without planned missile defense deployments, says Pifer. Full post at Brookings. http://bit.ly/1jlxJO6 [10]

Paper - “China's Nuclear Idiosyncrasies and Their Challenges” by Jeffrey Lewis for IFRI. Full report here. http://bit.ly/1dPY07f [11]

Russia wants precision munitions too - "High-precision weapons are becoming an increasingly important factor in non-nuclear deterrence, and perhaps even one of the most decisive factors...The degree of precision and power of today’s high-precision weapons makes them essentially an alternative to nuclear weapons," said Vladimir Putin in a recent talk. Diane Barnes at Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/1clJ8KD [12]

Other views - Adam Lowther and Hunter Hustus argue that deterrence requirements are different today, something they suggest goes underappreciated by those who argue simply for fewer nuclear weapons. Instead of arguing about number, they suggest the debate should focus on the need for greater stability through “flexible and nonfragile strategies, force structures and force postures.” Full argument at The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1cWzFb9 [13]

Speed reads:

--”Iran Accord in Geneva Followed by New Violence, New Diplomacy for Mideast” by Liz Sly for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1cWzCvU [14]

--”Eric Cantor Wants Congress to Define Final Iran Deal” by Tim ALberta for National Journal. http://bit.ly/1cWCGbm [15]

Events:

--”The Future of America’s Strategic Nuclear Deterrent.” Discussion with Evan Montgomery at SVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center. Dec. 5 at 10:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/18US48R [16]

--”The Iran Nuclear Deal: Does It Further U.S. National Security?” Hearing with Sec. John Kerry before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Dec. 10 @ 1:00pm. http://1.usa.gov/189IhgI [17]

--”Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Daryl Kimball, and Paul Pillar at 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 10 from 2:00-3:00. RSVP by calling Kurt Card at (703) 413-1100 ext. 5259 or online. http://bit.ly/18hj5jc [18]

--”Avoiding Future Irans: A New Course for U.S. Nonproliferation Policy.” Discussion with Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Rep. Brad Sherman, Sen. Ed Markey (invited), Mark Wallace, Daryl Kimball, Kingston Reif, Christopher Paine, and Robert Zarate at B338 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 11 from 11:45-1:30. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUWprv [19]

--”Critical Mass: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East.” Discussion with Rep. Jim Cooper, Rep. Mac Thornberry, and Andrew Krepinevich at 2218 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 12 at 10:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1863IPJ [20]

--”Key Policy Issues for U.S. Nuclear Cooperation.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Daniel Poneman, Thomas Moore, Mary Beth Nikitin, Miles Pomper (possible), Leonard Spector (possible), and Steve Rademaker at the Atlantic Council. Dec. 12 from 3:00-5:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUX6kw [21]

--Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Robert Einhorn, Mansoor Ahmed, and Silakanta Mishra at Stimson. Dec. 13 from 11:30-2:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dLltq3 [22]