On the radar: Works every time, 40% of the time; the Disasta’ in Alaska; MOX to cost $7.7 billion; BMD boosters look east; Obama in Israel; Brazil’s evolving role; Reshaping nuclear policy; and That time we almost shot Ahmadinejad.
March 21, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus
Iron sieve - New analysis indicates that Israel’s much vaunted Iron Dome anti-missile system is not as effective as public commentaries suggest. Video analysis of the system’s performance show that it destroyed no more than 40 percent of incoming warheads, perhaps far fewer.
--“Critics say explosions in the sky are hailed as evidence of success when the blasts in most cases simply represent interceptor warheads blowing up.” William J. Broad of The New York Times has the story. http://nyti.ms/ZWpxXE [1]
--Explaining Iron Dome: Accompanying graphic from NYT on the ways Iron Dome interceptors engage incoming rockets. http://nyti.ms/ZWsiIG [2]
Picking up the tab - “Obama Sarcastically Asks How Israel Afforded Such A Great Missile Defense System,” quips The Onion. http://onion.com/Y1tGgj [3]
Blunda’ in the Tundra - “Adding 14 interceptors is a great trade for the North Koreans. They deploy a few missiles with exactly no successful flight tests and watch the United States spend one billion dollars,” writes Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy on the flawed logic behind the Pentagon’s latest missile defense push.
--The problem of imposing costs: U.S. plans assume we fire five interceptors - each with an abysmal 50-50 chance of intercept - at each incoming North Korean missile. By the odds, the new interceptors would thus form an almost impenetrable barrier - unless North Korea builds three more missiles. “It is much easier for North Korea to build more missiles than it is for us to purchase five times as many interceptors,” writes Lewis.
--The problem of accidental nuclear war: What happens when the US has to use its interceptors against a North Korean threat, and the extras “light up the early-warning radars as they streak into the heart of Mother Russia?” Lewis explores the new policy, its problems, and its price. http://owl.li/jhDyx [4]
Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email [5] or follow us on twitter [6].
--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [7]. Want to support this work? Click here [8].
MOX madness - The estimated cost of a troubled plutonium fuel plant in South Carolina, the Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fuel Fabrication Facility, spiked another 50% - now at $7.7 billion - according to a new Government Accountability Office report. No lifetime cost estimates are available. The program is now roughly $6 billion over its original estimate and many years behind schedule. http://bit.ly/WWXV9D [9]
--Full GAO report: “Concerns with Major Construction Projects at the Office of Environmental Management and NNSA” (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/Y1oWaB [10]
East Coast site - Missile defense faithfuls are pushing for a new missile defense site on the East Coast, “a goal tied up as much with the conservative mantle of Ronald Reagan as it is with national security or the influence of the defense industry,” writes Tim Mak in Politico.
--”The technology that we have on the West Coast right now has not been demonstrated to be effective,” argued Tom Collina of the Arms Control Association. The Iranians also do not have “any long-range missile program to speak of,” said Collina. “Until the technology and the threat is there, I don’t understand why we’d want to spend the money.” http://politi.co/ZAzYCx [11]
Israel trip - “We prefer to resolve this diplomatically, and there’s still time to do so. Iran’s leaders must understand, however, that they have to meet their international obligations. And, meanwhile, the international community will continue to increase the pressure on the Iranian government. The United States will continue to consult closely with Israel on next steps. And I will repeat: All options are on the table. We will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from getting the world’s worst weapons,” said President Obama in a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/YI2sHk [12]
Tweet - @StimsonCTR_BFAD [13]: Analysis "Pentagon Can Slash $58B From Nuke Spending Over Decade: Analysis" features BFAD research http://bit.ly/ZADjS5 [14]
Brazil, global powers & the bomb - Brazil is a rising global power and a vocal leader, if a relatively new member, in the global nonproliferation regime. However, as Brazil gains influence, a major question exists over whether and how Brazil will engage on nuclear issues in the future with other major powers - with the permanent 5 members of the UN Security Council or forums like the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Megan Garcia explores the issue at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/Yb5w5g [15]
The middle way - “Moving to nuclear disarmament now, by trying to write a treaty in the next few years, is too fast, but waiting for the distant future is too slow. [...] A middle ground between these positions makes the most sense,” writes Michael O’Hanlon in The Strategist.
--”Declaration of ambitious but arbitrary and unattainable deadlines for action is more likely to discredit the nuclear disarmament agenda than to advance it. Putting off the nuclear disarmament agenda creates its own substantial problems, however. It leaves existing nuclear powers in a weak position to pressure would-be proliferators to abstain from the pursuit of nuclear weapons. [...] It also fosters a false sense of safety and complacency about the supposed safety of living with the bomb,” writes O’Hanlon. Full post here. http://owl.li/jhML5 [16]
Rethinking defense priorities - “The time is ripe to bring our defense policy in line with fiscal and strategic realities. A good place to start rebalancing our priorities is U.S. nuclear weapons policy,” write Lt. Gen. Robert Gard Jr. (USA, ret.) and Terry Lierman in Politico. “A large and extremely expensive nuclear arsenal is poorly suited to respond to the threats we face today and the types of wars we conduct.”
--”By rethinking an outdated nuclear posture, Obama’s team can deliver a much needed one-two punch: make the U.S. and the world safer, and free up billions of dollars for higher-priority defense programs, such as counterterrorism and cybersecurity.” Full op-ed here. http://bit.ly/WWZuo5 [17]
Report - “Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play,” Ramesh Thakur and Gareth Evans, Editors.
--”This report, the first in a proposed series, describes the progress – or lack of it – on the commitments and recommendations of the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the 2010 and 2012 Nuclear Security Summits, and the 2009 report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND).” Download PDF here. http://bit.ly/14e7HGN [18]
Events:
--"2013 Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Winter Conference.” Linton Brooks, former administrator, NNSA, and 18 other speakers. March 22-23. @ Univ. of California Washington Center. Details here (pdf). http://owl.li/iVIvo [19]
--”The Impact of Sanctions on Tehran’s Nuclear Calculations.” Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International; Reza Marashi and Trita Parsi, National Iranian American Council. March 26, 12:00-1:30 p.m. @ Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/iWWtD [20]
--”Nuclear Priorities 2013.” Anita Friedt, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Arms Control Verification and Compliance, Department of State. March 27, 12:30-1:30p.m. @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://owl.li/ja0JS [21]
--”Conference on Disarmament first session for 2013 ends. Geneva. http://owl.li/jhOW5 [22]
Dessert:
Where the bombs are - A new interactive map from CNN World offers country-by-country details of states’ nuclear weapons programs. Explore here. http://owl.li/jhBWP [23]
Tweet - @philewing [24]: Wait, you didn't know Strategic Air Command had a disco/lounge theme back in the day? It gets bopping at 0:35 here: http://t.co/p4ktcQppmr [25]
Close call - In 2006, during the UN General Assembly, a Secret Service agent accidently discharged a shotgun while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was loading his motorcade.
--“Everyone just stopped. The Iranians looked at us and we looked at the Iranians. The agent began to apologize. Ahmadinejad just turned his head and got into his car.” And that was it.” Report from Marc Ambinder and D.B. Grady in The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/ZW3CA0 [26]
Topic
- Early Warning [27]
- Iron Dome [28]
- Missiles & Space [29]
- MOX [30]
- Government Accountability Office [31]
- Ronald Reagan [32]
- Brazil [33]
- United Nations [34]
- Nuclear Suppliers Group [35]
- Nuclear disarmament [36]
- Cybersecurity [37]
- NPT Review Conference [38]