Criteria for success - “This agreement will not be the epic capitulation critics decry, nor be the solution to all the problems with Iran or the Middle East. But it will help resolve one of the most dangerous,” writes Ploughshares Fund president Joe Cirincione in the Huffington Post.

--“In order for the deal to succeed, however, it must deliver on three core issues. First, the deal must block all of Iran's pathways to a bomb. It must shrink and constrain all aspects of Iran's nuclear program… Second, the deal must give us eyes on the program. It must create an inspection regime so intrusive that if Iran tries to break out, sneak out or creep out, we can detect it quickly.Third, the deal must allow for a rapid response mechanism that can punish Iran should it cheat.” Full column here. http://huff.to/1OQmuwO [1]

Talks update - Iran and world powers are still working to resolve remaining gaps in the nuclear talks. The most difficult issues, a Western official tells Reuters, are the limits on Iran’s enrichment and research and development activities after an initial ten years, as well as the timing of sanctions relief. http://reut.rs/1NyMlI5 [2]

--The Russian foreign minister left Lausanne Monday afternoon but will return Tuesday “if needed.” Foreign ministers from Iran, the US, UK, France, Germany and China have indicated that they will continue the negotiations till the Tuesday night deadline for a framework agreement. The Guardian’s Julian Borger reports. http://bit.ly/19pisL7 [3]

--A New York Times report that Iran is backtracking on its promise to ship its nuclear fuel out of the county caused quite a stir. But Western officials argue that there are other ways to deal with the fuel, such as blending it into a more diluted form. http://nyti.ms/1F8KVjF [4]

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard [5]: Don't Trust, Verify: A deal with #Iran will keep Iran's nuclear program under lock and key #IranTalksLausanne http://bit.ly/1BWKowo [6]

Alternatives - “The alternatives [to a deal] are far worse. Centrifuges and enrichment levels would resume their upward curve. War drums would beat again despite the fact that calls to attack Iran are an irresponsible invitation to disaster,” writes Roger Cohen for the New York Times.

--“Would it be preferable that Iran not have the nuclear capacity it has acquired? Sure. Can there be absolute guarantees a deal would be honored? No. But diplomacy deals with the real world. The toughest, most important diplomacy is conducted with enemies. Opponents of an accord have offered no serious alternatives.” http://nyti.ms/1BWgDfc [7]

Tweet - @KelseyDav [8]: 300 centrifuges in 2005. 12,500 in 2010. 20,000 in 2015. Now is the time for an #IranDeal w/ reductions & limits http://bit.ly/1Nz8Jku [9]

Third generation - “The grandson of the pilot who flew the Enola Gay will command the Air Force's stealth nuclear bomber unit,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh announced on Friday. Brig. Gen. Paul W. Tibbets IV will take over the command of the 509th Bomb Wing at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. http://bit.ly/1EqbuTY [10]

Bad ideas - “War with Iran is no joke. Critics of a deal with Iran should not treat it like one,” writes Ploughshares Fund’s Geoff Wilson in War is Boring. “A breakdown in negotiations will have serious repercussions for the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy. That being the case, lawmakers should be more careful when threatening to use U.S. military force.” http://bit.ly/1ysCR8l [11]

--See Also: “The Reckless Man’s Case for Bombing Iran,” by Peter Beinart in Defense One. http://bit.ly/1F9v983 [12]

--“History Says Tom Cotton And Mark Steyn Shouldn't Be Confident About Intervention In The Middle East,” by Tim Reuter in Forbes. http://onforb.es/1aaQfJ6 [13]

Quick hits:

--“India and Pakistan Locked in a Nuclear Naval Arms Race,” by Franz-Stefan Gady in The Diplomat http://bit.ly/1HUFmc7 [14]

--“Pakistan’s New Missile Disrupts Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” by Arka Biswas in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1bJqEay [15]

--“Dry Cask Storage Safe, at Least for the Short Term, Expert Says,” in VTDigger. http://bit.ly/1bJmrUj [16]

Events:

--“Deal or no deal? Negotiating with Iran.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative of Brookings, William Galston, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies of Brookings and Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy of Brookings. April 1 from 10:00AM – 11:30 AM. Located at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 2003. http://brook.gs/1x8WE1a [17]

--“Paths to Disarmament: The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative.” Featuring John Loretz, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, and Martin Fleck, Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR). April 2 from 8:00-9:00 PM EST. Online webinar sponsored by PSR. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1Oek3Ur [18]

--“The Fate of South Africa’s Nuclear Material.” Featuring Douglas Birch, R. Jeffrey Smith, Matthew Bunn, Thomas Wheeler and Togzhan Kassenova. April 6 from 9:00 AM – 11:00 AM EST. Hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Located at 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC. Register online. http://ceip.org/1yjihqR [19]

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget. With Frank Klotz, Administrator, NNSA; and four other witnesses. April 15 at 2:30 PM. Located at 222 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington Dc. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1FLDB07 [20]

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/ [21]

Dessert:

Nukes as firefighters - “In the 1960s and 1970s, the United States attempted to improve the image of nuclear bombs by using them for public works. This went about as poorly as you'd suspect,” writes Esther Inglis-Arkell for IO9. The USSR followed suit in the nuclear public works endeavor, and in 1966 they tried to extinguish a vast underground fire by dropping a nuclear bomb down into the earth. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1xPrdcU [22]