November 12, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke, Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson
Difficult but promising talks - “The best way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is through a negotiated deal that limits uranium enrichment, curbs the plutonium program and allows for maximum international monitoring,” writes The New York Times in an editorial.
--”No one has proposed a better path than negotiations, and getting the best deal possible should remain the goal for Iran and the major powers — the United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany — as they look to another round of talks later this month.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1hCURJw [1]
What’s your alternative? - “In exchange for the small risk of temporarily easing a few lesser sanctions, there is a chance of ending the nuclear confrontation with Iran that otherwise has no good outcome. If an interim deal can create a real freeze — still an open question — that's a trade-off to seize, not to spurn,” writes USA Today in an editorial about recent negotiations with Iran.
”The likeliest alternative to the suddenly promising negotiations over Iran's nuclear program is not capitulation [as hardliners are seeking]. It is war, which makes rising attempts to kill talks in the crib look particularly foolish.” Read the full article here. http://usat.ly/17suWQp [2]
Build support for a deal - “The Obama administration is right to move forward — but it should work harder to align any deal with its goals and to bring Congress and allies on board,” writes The Washington Post in an editorial. Full post here. http://wapo.st/1bwukGE [3]
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--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [6]. Want to support this work? Click here [7].
Technical backgrounder - “A Nuclear Expert Explains, in Very Basic Language, the Science at the Heart of Iranian Nuclear Talks.” Mark Hibbs offers a Q&A to Max Fisher of The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1bzVYCy [8]
Blame game - “Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif rejected U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's pinning of blame on Iran for the lack of a deal on its nuclear program last week, saying splits between Western powers prevented a breakthrough,” Reuters reports. Zarif warned that singling out Iran could only serve to further undermine confidence in the Geneva negotiations, which will resume on November 20. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/17R540V [9]
Mutual Interests - “For a country like Iran that has threatened Israel with destruction and engaged in international terrorism, the bar must be much higher on the right to low-level, highly monitored, peaceful enrichment. But it is an inescapable and legitimate component of any conceivable deal that would usher Iran into the family of nations — which is where the United States and Israel have common interest in seeing it,” writes Robert Cohen of The New York Times. Full piece here. http://nyti.ms/1btWJNy [10]
Benefits of the deal - “6 reasons Iran deal was good for America.” New article by Trita Parsi for CNN. Full article here. http://cnn.it/HL0y7I [11]
Tweet - @DefenseOne [12]: Everyone is Posturing on Iran (And Everyone Wants a Deal) http://bit.ly/1gGkuHZ [13]
Israeli perspective - “The most strident voices in Israel may be the loudest at the moment, but it's important to remember that many Israelis believe they should give the Americans a chance to strike a deal that would benefit Israel and effectively put a halt to Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon. And they believe such a deal would be far preferable to the alternatives: a military strike or the acceptance of Iran as a nuclear weapons state,” writes Dalia Dassa Kaye in the Los Angeles Times. Full article here. http://lat.ms/1aRfGgu [14]
Tweet - @JeffreyGoldberg [15]: Bad idea to loosen sanctions at the moment; also a bad idea to toughen them up. Here's why: http://bit.ly/1e1rFXy [16]
Sanctions on hold - The Senate Banking Committee plans to delay consideration of new sanctions on Iran, at least until after a briefing from Sec. John Kerry on recent negotiations.
--"It is our feeling that additional sanctions right now will have the potential to derail the diplomatic agreement and would give Iran the opportunity to actually achieve sanctions relief by dividing the international coalition," said a senior administration official. Patricia Zengele and Matt Spetalnick report for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1i5BwOR [17]
Big think - “It’s time to be honest with ourselves. We are not going to inflict nuclear destruction on small states in crowded neighborhoods, killing thousands, maybe millions, of innocent people, and poisoning swaths of territory inhabited by friends and enemies alike. The United States and its allies need to create a new and radically different deterrent against small nuclear powers, one that does not include threats of nuclear retaliation,” writes Tom Nichols.
--Nichols argues that, where nuclear retaliation is often not a credible or useful threat against anybody but Russia or China, a conventional deterrence framework could deter the use of WMD by rogue states by threatening that such action would trigger a conventional strike for the explicit purpose of deposing the regime that perpetrated a WMD attack. Full article in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1j1WGLy [18]
Speed reads:
--”Obama Faces Worry at Home, Abroad Over Iran Talks” by Julie Pace of AP. http://abcn.ws/1bmCIXH [19]
--”How to Fix the Iran Nuclear Deal” by Dennis Ross in The New Republic. http://on.tnr.com/17sotVu [20]
--”Iran to let UN Inspect New Reactor Next Month” from AP. http://bit.ly/1e1r0p4 [21]
Events:
--”The Nuclear Crisis at Plutonium Mountain: Two Journalists' Tale.” Discussion with Eben Harrell and David Hoffman at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Nov. 13th from 10:00-11:00am. http://hvrd.me/1cHk6Eg [22]
--”Examining Nuclear Negotiations: Iran After Rouhani’s First 100 Days.” House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing with Colin Kahl, Mark Dubowitz, and Danielle Pletka. Nov. 13th at 10:00am. Webcast available at committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1bokKaL [23]
--”Central Asia, Iran and the Nuclear Landscape in Asia.” Discussion at George Washington University, Linder Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. Nov. 14 from 9:00am-3:30pm. Register here.http://bit.ly/1akaijq [24]
--”Reporting on Iran.” Discussion with Laura Rozen and Barbara Slavin at American Security Project, seventh floor, 1100 New York Ave. NW. Nov. 14 from 12:30pm-1:20pm. RSVP by Nov. 12 here. http://bit.ly/1fwoIyK [25]
--”Flawed Logics: Strategic Nuclear Arms Control from Truman to Obama.” Discussion with James Lebovic at George Washington University, Linder Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. Nov. 20th at 1:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/HNBBsK [26]
--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg [27]
Topic
- Early Warning [28]
- Iran Nuclear Program [29]
- Iran sanctions [30]
- Deterrence [31]
- Iran Negotiations [32]