On the radar: Keeping sanctions on ice; Iran talking with IAEA; Hitting 500; North Korea defying expectations; Warhead plan problems; Sub delay; Bomber bid; and Nixon’s arms control success and skepticism.

October 25, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Holding off new Iran sanctions - The White House met with aides to Senate committee leaders on Thursday, asking them to delay a package of additional sanctions against Iran. This follows a similar appeal from the White House last month, which asked Senate lawmakers, “to let negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program get under way.” Timothy Gardner and Patricia Zengerle of Reuters have the story. http://reut.rs/19ElHKx [1]

Political tea leaves - “Dems could break with Obama on Iran” by Julian Pecquet of The Hill. http://bit.ly/1d7gg8a [2]

IAEA talks - The IAEA will put Iran’s new readiness to address concerns about its atomic ambitions to the test on Monday, when they meet with Iranian officials to discuss increased access to suspected Iranian nuclear sites. Western officials say that Iran must address the IAEA's concerns if it is to build confidence that any activity it might have undertaken in the past to acquire a nuclear weapon has since ended.

--However, while diplomats noted that “Iran seemed more willing to tackle issues of substance in [their] last meeting, held in late September,” they also believe that, “Iran will probably agree to cooperate fully with an investigation by [IAEA] only if a broader deal is reached in separate negotiations with six world powers.” Fredrik Dahl of Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/HlC1G1 [3]

Mano Amano - Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a top nuclear negotiator, is going to meet with IAEA Director Yukiya Amano on Monday afternoon, just hours before Iran and the IAEA meet for talks on the nuclear issue. George Jahn of AP has the story. http://abcn.ws/17iRXVW [4]

500th - This is the 500th edition of Early Warning. We would like to thank all of our subscribers and followers for making us a go-to source for nuclear news. A newsletter is only as good as its readers, and you guys are great.

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Programming note - Early Warning will be on hiatus next week, as the editors participate in Ploughshares Fund’s fall board meeting. We will resume our regular schedule on Monday Nov. 4th.

Outlook on North Korea - It’s been said that North korea tends to outperform the expectations of the outside world. That tendency applies to its nuclear program, where the North is expanding its fissile materials production capabilities, slowly improving its missiles, and likely pursuing a deliverable nuclear warhead. That tendency also applies to North Korea’s political stability and economy. The regime seems to be successfully weathering a leadership transition, and the economy is growing.

--A new special report in the latest edition of The Economist explains the state of play with North Korea, its nuclear program, and the outlook for keeping North Korea from getting a deliverable arsenal. Full report here. http://econ.st/1apVTTk [9]

Report - “U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues” by Amy Woolf of CRS. October 22, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1d3NhlT [10]

Warhead plan problems - “The Obama administration might reconsider a potentially costly plan to upgrade certain nuclear warheads because of increasing budget constraints and skepticism from lawmakers and some military officials, congressional aides and other observers say,” reports Douglas Guarino of Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/17OkQnv [11]

Boomer delay - “Continued sequestration and spending bills based on previous year levels could halve the amount of money required in fiscal 2014 to ramp up toward production of the first ship in the next class of ballistic missile submarines and delay it by as much as two years,” reports Mike McCarthy of Defense Daily. (paywall) http://bit.ly/1c4eFz0 [12]

Bomber bid - Top defense firms Boeing and Lockheed Martin are expected to join forces and bid for the contract to build the Pentagon’s new long-range strike bomber. The Air Force’s most recent estimate puts the bomber program’s cost at $55 billion. Jeremy Herb at The Hill has the early report. http://bit.ly/HgC06H [13]

Iran timeline - “Iranian Breakout Estimates” by Patrick Migliorini, David Albright, Houston Wood and Christina Walrond of ISIS. October 24, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1d78v20 [14]

Fissile material stocks - “Global Fissile Material Report 2013: Increasing Transparency of Nuclear Warhead and Fissile Material Stocks as a Step toward Disarmament” by the International Panel on Fissile Materials. October, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1d7m6q7 [15]

Job opportunity? - “Help wanted in Fukushima: Low pay, high risks and gangsters” Special report by Antoni Slodkowski and Mari Saito for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1chvB9n [16]

Events:

--"Nuclear Weapons Modernization Programs: Military, Technical and Political Requirements for the B61 Life Extension Program and Future Stockpile Strategy." Hearing of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces with Madelyn Creedon, Gen. Robert Kehler, Donald Cook, and Paul Hommert. October 29th at 3:30pm.

--”Iran and the Nuclear Issue: The November 7-8 Geneva Round” Discussion with Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Pollack, Suzanne Maloney, Tamara Cofman Wittes and Ted Piccone. November 1st from 2:00-3:00pm at Brookings. http://bit.ly/1bWpZgC [17]

History lesson:

Success and scepticism - President Richard Nixon is often thought of as an exemplary arms controller - signing the SALT I treaty, the ABM Treaty and the Biological Weapons Convention as well as presiding over the ratification of the NPT and initiating SALT II talks. But, as Nixon’s (recorded) private moments suggest, the “reason Nixon felt free to sign so many agreements is in part because he didn’t take them very seriously.” Alex Wellerstein writes about a new history, written by Francis Gavin, of Nixon’s realist views and somewhat flip perspective on arms control. http://bit.ly/H72jfe [18]