On the radar: Regime stability in question; Ignatius and Zarif; Crying wolf on an Iranian ICBM; Nuclear trade bill; and Seeking a MEWMDFZ.

December 16, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Geoff Wilson

North Korean politics - “Of the eight senior leaders that surrounded Kim Jong-il’s hearse during his official funeral ceremony, only two elderly military officials and Kim Jong-un himself remain. The rest have been purged,” writes Abraham Denmark in an analysis of the recent events in North Korea. The author posits that the recent purges, including of Jang Song Thaek, will unsettle North Korea’s relationship with China, cause political turmoil among elites in Pyongyang and translate to more belligerence abroad. Full post in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1cwEHJF [1]

--Nicholas Eberstadt sees similar problems for North Korea and suggests that the purges might not end at Jang’s execution, could impact regime cohesion and could increase the likelihood of miscalculation during the regime’s next crisis. Full post: “North Korea Could be in Store for a Purge - and Destabilization” in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1c76mWz [2]

Zarif interview - “Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that despite hitting a ‘snag’ in nuclear negotiations last week, Iran is committed ‘100 percent’ to reaching a comprehensive final agreement,” writes David Ignatius about his recent interview with the Foreign Minister. Zarif “voiced tough positions on key issues and said ‘it’s going to be a bumpy road,’ with difficult bargaining ahead.”

--Zarif did not provide specifics about nuclear negotiations, but suggested there are ways to increase transparency and provide assurances that Iran’s nuclear facilities will not be used to build nuclear weapons. Read the full piece at the Washington Post. http://wapo.st/18v0EwH [3]

Memo - “Solving the Nuclear Conflict with Iran” by former Iranian negotiator Seyed Hossein Mousavian. (pdf) http://bit.ly/198GhX0 [4]

Iran’s missiles - Iran’s ballistic missile program, while relatively advanced, has been self-limited to short- and medium-range missiles. Iran has not flight tested an ICBM, and the U.S. and Israel do not cite evidence that Iran is actively developing ICBMs. Those facts aside, members of Congress regularly warn that an Iranian ICBM could be ready by next year. Greg Thielmann wards off these persistent myths about Iran’s missile program for Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/1fylxai [5]

Tweet - @RosLehtinen [6]: Introduced w @BradSherman bipartisan bill 2 strengthen Cong oversight over nuclear deals + protect from proliferation. http://t.co/SiuIt89PuJ [7]

WMD-free Mid-East - “On the heels of two US arms control breakthroughs in Iran and Syria, the United States , along with the conveners of the 2012 conference, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Russia, and the United Kingdom, should seize the diplomatic momentum and encourage all regional parties, including Iran and Israel, to agree on holding a regional security and arms control conference,” writes Bilal Saab for the Atlantic Council. Full analysis: “Getting to Zero in the Middle East.” http://bit.ly/19Nq2sL [8]

Quick hits:

--“Power or Persuasion: More Sanctions or Bombs for Iran?” by James Kitfield for Defense One. http://bit.ly/1bKgMoU [9]

--”Limiting Nuclear Weapons: Diplomacy and Dialogue” by Catherine Thomasson for The Hill. http://bit.ly/18R0mhK [10]

--”U.S. Nuclear-Arms Cost Estimate Jumps Up $27 Billion” by Diane Barnes of Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/198Geua [11]

Events:

--”The U.S. and Iran: A Breakthrough Moment” Discussion with Bob Einhorn, Hossein Mousavian and Thomas Pickering at the Asia Society in New York. Dec. 17th from 6:00-7:30pm. RSVP and webcast here. http://bit.ly/18IYcAQ [12]

--Joseph Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund, book discussion of Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late. 6:00 p.m., at Politics and Prose in Washington D.C. http://bit.ly/IPJMW5 [13]