January 31, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

INF compliance - Rumors are swirling that Russia has tested missiles that could violate the 1987 INF treaty, which banned ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles. “Some claims are spurious; others appear more serious. If Moscow has developed a prohibited INF missile, it will have implications for U.S.-Russia arms control. But it will have even more important implications for Russia's relations with its neighbors in Europe and Asia, including China, writes Steven Pifer in Foreign Policy

--The spurious claim is that Russia test flew its RS-26 intercontinental ballistic missile at intermediate range. That RS-26 missile, given its maximum range, does not violate the INF treaty and is instead controlled under the New START treaty. “While there may be a serious compliance issue regarding the INF Treaty, the sides appear to be smoothly implementing New START,” notes Pifer.

--”Less information is available regarding a more recent charge, that Russia has tested a ground-launched intermediate-range cruise missile. This appears more serious,” writes Pifer. If true, it could question Moscow’s faith with those treaty obligations. It would also “add yet another problem to a broader U.S.-Russia agenda that already has its fair share of problems” while adding tension to Russia’s security relationships with its Asian neighbors. Full article here. http://atfp.co/1ddDR4u [1]

Room for compromise - Skepticism about a comprehensive deal with Iran “does not mean a final deal with Tehran is impossible, but it does mean that both sides, Tehran and the West, need to start thinking creatively about how to bridge what is clearly a wide divide,” writes Fareed Zakaria for The Washington Post.

--While “Iran and America have fundamentally different views about an acceptable final deal… there are creative compromises that can bridge many of the gaps,” Zakaria says. “There are creative compromises that can bridge many of the gaps. Georgetown University’s Colin Kahl and The Ploughshares Fund’s Joseph Cirincione, who both work on these issues, pointed out to me that one could shut down centrifuges without destroying them. In fact, Iran has more than 19,800 installed centrifuges, but fewer than half are operational. Such compromises have already been found. Iran had always said it would not ship away its store of 20 percent enriched uranium, but in the interim agreement, it agreed to neutralize it by dilution and oxidation. Similarly, Iran could keep its heavy-water reactor running but convert it to a light-water system.”

--Beyond setting the contours of a final deal, Iran and the U.S. also face obstacles at home. President Rouhani is ”operating under constraints, with many domestic opponents. The same could be said of the Obama administration. It is better that both sides start preparing the ground domestically for a final deal — and the compromises it would involve — rather than hoping that somehow if it works out in Geneva, it will work out at home as well.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1iTTKFb [2]

Confidence being built - “After recent progress with Iran, it is time to tackle ‘more difficult’ nuclear issues such as allegations of past weapons work,” reports AFP on an interview with IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano. “We started with measures that are practical and easy to implement, and then we move on to more difficult things,” said Amano. Full report here. http://yhoo.it/LwEiRq [3]

Tweet - @CFR_org [4]: #ThisDayinHistory, 1950: U.S. president Harry Truman announces the United States has developed a hydrogen bomb.

Fear in the force - “Top Air Force officials described a persistent culture of ‘undue stress and fear’ that led 92 out of 550 members of the military's nuclear missile corps to be involved in cheating on a monthly proficiency test on which they felt pressured to get perfect scores to get promoted,” the AP reports. “Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James said Thursday that at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, roughly half of the 183 missile launch officers have been implicated in the cheating.”

--“But James and Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, who heads Global Strike Command, insisted that the failures haven't affected the safety of the military's nuclear mission. The launch officers didn't cheat to pass the test, ‘they cheated because they felt driven to get 100 percent,’ [James] said… All 92 officers have been decertified and suspended while the scandal is being investigated, meaning other launch officers and staff to fill in, performing 10 24-hour shifts per month, instead of the usual eight.” Read the full story here. http://abcn.ws/1n2MdBq [5]

Prompt global strike - ”The Arms Race Goes Hypersonic” by James Acton in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1edP6Qr [6]

Rethinking Trident - “The U.K. may not need its Trident submarines continuously at sea to retain a credible nuclear deterrent,” says the Royal United Services Institute. Analysts say that, “such a move would not automatically negate the credibility of the U.K.’s nuclear forces and wouldn’t be inherently destabilizing.” Additionally, “Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s party says there are credible and cheaper alternative nuclear-weapons systems and has questioned the need to have nuclear weapons at sea at all times. They [have] said the 20 billion-pound ($33 billion) cost of a like-for-like replacement [of the current submarine force is] too expensive.” Full report from Kitty Donaldson of Bloomberg here. http://bloom.bg/1bHbXht [7]

Going road mobile - “North Korea appears to be readying one of its rocket sites for a rigorous testing program that could involve the country's mysterious new strategic missile,” Rachel Oswald reports for Global Security Newswire. “Recent satellite images suggest that a potential trial of the KN-08 missile's rocket engine occurred at the Dongchang-ri missile site between late last month and early this month, the specialist website ‘38 North’ said in a Wednesday analysis.”

--“The KN-08 has yet to be flight tested. While earlier versions of the suspected intercontinental ballistic missile displayed at parades appear to have been crude mockups, models seen in subsequent military displays look to have been better designed. This is a possible indication that North Korea is making progress in refining its road-mobile ballistic missile, according to independent experts. U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper in a Wednesday briefing to the Senate said North Korea appears to have ‘already taken initial steps’ to field the KN-08, despite the weapon being untested.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1fhzxUj [8]

--”North Korea and the United States: Diplomacy at an Impasse” by Joshua Pollack in Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/MmKKue [9]

Events:

--"Solving Today’s Nuclear Nightmares." featuring Joseph Cirincione. Feb. 3rd at Noon-1:30 PM at George Washington University. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1b0Ncgf [10]

--“At the Table: Perspectives on Iran Negotiations from Two Former U.S. Negotiators” featuring Nicholas Burns and Robert Einhorn. Sponsored by the Partnership for a Secure America. Feb. 7 from 11:00-noon at 2118 Rayburn HOB. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dah61g [11]