On the radar: Nunn-Lugar 2.0; Uranium plant costs could double; Shipbuilding plan a “fantasy”; Nuclear security pacts clear House; Making amends; and Measuring Moore.

May 22, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

CTR in a new neighborhood - Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) introduced legislation that, following the model of the storied Nunn-Lugar program, would “work with foreign leaders and civil society to rid the Middle East and North Africa of Weapons of Mass Destruction,” reports Julian Pecquet of The hill. http://bit.ly/12uIweu [1]

--“Nowhere is the proliferation challenge more glaring than in the countries of the Middle East and Africa, where well-connected terrorist groups operate amidst political instability. In addition, a growing collection of unsecured conventional and possible WMD-related weapons and materials have created a danger we cannot ignore...My legislation will appropriately expand our threat reduction programs to meet the threats of tomorrow,” said Sen. Shaheen in a statement. http://1.usa.gov/YZN9OP [2]

Siren - The costs of the Uranium Processing Facility in Tennessee, currently estimated at up to $6 billion, could spike yet again, as the facility needs an expanded design and might face funding constraints or delays.

--“Under less-optimum funding profiles, with limited appropriations (between $200 million and $500 million annually), the overall cost of UPF could go up to $11.6 billion and stretch the project out until FY 2035 -- the GAO analysis of Corps of Engineers data suggests,” writes Frank Munger at The Knoxville News Sentinel. http://bit.ly/11b2Gri [3]

General alarm - “Top House Republican tells Navy to scrap its ‘fantasy’ shipbuilding plan” by Carlo Muñoz at The Hill. http://bit.ly/14xwVxs [4]

Anti-terror legislation clears house, Senate uncertain - The House of Representatives approved legislation - by a vote of 390-3 - that would bring the U.S. into compliance with two nuclear security accords: the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism and the Conventional on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material.

--It’s unclear when or if the legislation can clear the Senate, as Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) seems intent to block the anti-terrorism legislation until he gets a controversial vote on an amendment that would require the death penalty for those convicted of acts of nuclear terrorism. Diane Barnes of Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/14RcwTK [5]

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email [6] or follow us on twitter [7].

--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [8]. Want to support this work? Click here [9].

Tweet - @Cirincione [10]: Your CREDO Vote Supports Our Work @plough_shares http://t.co/chkwlmsgrb [11]

Hat in hand - Following months of provocations, North Korea has sent a high-level military official to China, the North’s closest ally. Experts speculate Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae’s trip may be intended to “explain DPRK’s recent military moves,” mend relations and appeal for Chinese aid.

--North Korea “has been feeling China’s pressure” and the effects of tightening Chinese sanctions. China currently “provides nearly all of [North Korea’s] fuel and most of its trade,” in addition to “89 percent of North Korea’s exports and imports.” Full story at The Washington Post. http://owl.li/lhCyJ [12]

No sharing - U.S. lawmakers are “proposing a measure that would bar the administration from sharing classified missile defense data with Russia.” AP has the story. http://owl.li/lhFPP [13]

East Coast site - The idea of an East Coast missile defense site is setting up to be one of the most contentious political battles over the defense authorization bill. Yet the draft bill from the House Armed Service Committee’s Subcommittee on Strategic Forces included no language on the site. The going bet is that an East Coast site was blocked from being in the draft, but will find its way into the bill during committee markup. John Bennett at Defense News has the story. http://bit.ly/11b2Gri [3]

Tweet - @NTI_GSN [14]: Russia to Retire, Destroy Two Nuke Subs http://t.co/GfeLVoxanI [15]

East Asian diplomacy - Last week Japan dispatched a senior official to North Korea to discuss abductions of Japanese citizens, an issue that has plagued the two states relationship for decades. The trip, which came as a surprise to the U.S. and South Korea, was a possible primer to official talks between Pyongyang and Tokyo. The Washington Post has the full story. http://owl.li/lhJuw [16]

Tweet - @ForeignPolicy [17]: The real life war game that almost led to nuclear armageddon. atfp.co/YX0xTN [18]

Tweet - @thedeadhandbook [19]: The 1983 War Scare: was it real? Terrific new material from The National Security Archive suggests so. http://t.co/DAZFCuXnc4 [20]

Atomic weather - Meteorologists have calculated that the energy released by the tornado over Moore, Oklahoma earlier this week ranged between 8 to 600 times the power of the nuclear weapon dropped over Hiroshima. The National Weather Service has rated the storm as an EF5 for “wind speed (between 200-210 mph), breadth and severity of damage,” NPR reports. Full story here. http://owl.li/lhOXR [21]

Events:

--Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and NATO officials meet with Russian officials to discuss missile defense. Moscow. May 23-24.

--"Nuclear Terrorism: What’s at Stake?" Jay Cohen, David Waller, Stephen Flynn, Stanton Sloane. May 29 8:00-9:30 am. American Security Project. 1100 New York Ave, NW, Seventh Floor, West Tower. Details here. http://owl.li/lcEuT [22]

--”The Kaleidoscope Turns Again in a Crisis-Challenged Iran,” Yasmin Alem and Suzanne Maloney, moderated by Barbara Slavin. May 30, 12:00-1:30 pm @ The Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/l8cYq [23]