On the radar: “Uranium processing fiasco”; UNGA speeches, Rouhani on CNN; Military experts see budget savings from nuclear cuts; Components of a deal; and After ACDA report.

September 25, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Explosive budget growth - The cost of a proposed uranium weapons plant in Tennessee has soared to 19 times the original estimate - from $600 million to $11.6 billion - and its projected startup date slipped from 2018 to 2038. Adding insult to fiscal injury, there has not been an independent study confirming that a building of the Uranium Processing Facility’s size is necessary for the maintenance of the US nuclear arsenal.

--”Instead of barreling full steam ahead toward an uncertain but extremely costly future, the Energy Department and the NNSA should take a deep breath and a long step back, allowing time for the study needed to determine if an $11.6 billion Uranium Processing Facility is really the best solution to a problem that, as yet, has not even been defined,” write Peter Stockton and Lydia Dennett in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1b5FTFo [1]

Full report - ”Uranium Processing Facility: When You're in a Hole, Just Stop Digging” by Peter Stockton and Lydia Dennett of the Project on Government Oversight.

--Top recommendation: “Given current budget constraints, Congress and DOE should insist on a publicly released independent study that determines secondary component lifetimes and that looks into reducing the scope of Life Extension Programs (LEPs), including the feasibility of focusing on recertification rather than remanufacturing of nuclear bomb secondaries in order to confirm the need for the UPF’s planned production capabilities.” The authors suggest that, unless such studies confirm the need for UPF and the scope of proposed LEPs, the administration and Congress should halt funding for the projects. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1fmsGgF [2]

--Slideshow: “A history of mismanagement: Building nuclear facilities on the taxpayer’s dime” from The Bulletin. Greatest hits include the UPF, NIF, CMRR and MOX. http://bit.ly/170rKIZ [3]

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The UNGA speeches - ”Remarks by President Obama in Address to the United Nations General Assembly” http://1.usa.gov/1h0oI97 [8]

--”Statement by H. E. Dr. Hassan Rouhani President of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the Sixty-eight Session of the United Nations General Assembly” (pdf) http://bit.ly/1h0p6oe [9]

Rouhani with Amanpour - "Now, if an opportunity was created today, had arisen today...and the prep work for that had been done, most probably the talks would have haven taken place, primarily focused on the nuclear issue or the developments on the Middle East. Therefore the supreme leader, I can tell you, has given permission for my government to freely negotiate on these issues," said Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour

--Watch the full CNN interview here. http://bit.ly/15trBPZ [10]

How it played:

--”Denying Iran's opening carries its own risks” Editorial from USA Today. http://usat.ly/19zmIly [11]

--”Talking to Tehran Makes Sense: Despite distrust between the U.S. and Iran, a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue is worth pursuing.” Editorial from The LA Times. http://lat.ms/16qJbVF [12]

--”Testing Iran’s Soft-Sell Strategy” Editorial from The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1fCZrnw [13]

--”U.S., Iran Trade Cautious Overtures at U.N.” Report from Jasmin Ramsey at IPS. http://bit.ly/18WBxlI [14]

New strategy, lower budgets, fewer nukes - A new report from Stimson urges a new defense strategy for the U.S. that would allow for lower defense spending while protecting capabilities important to national security. The report includes 27 specific cuts that would meet budget ceilings required by law without hollowing out the military. Included: Retire an ICBM wing, delay and reduce purchases of new ballistic missile subs, keep the new bomber non-nuclear, get rid of tactical nuclear weapons, and freeze the GMD missile defense program.

--”Strategic Agility: Strong National Defense for Today’s Global and Fiscal Realities” from Stimson. Signers include Blechman, Adams, Allison, Bayer, Gen. Bell, Betts, Amb. Bloomfield, Amb. Burt, Gen. Cartwright, Lt. Gen. Christman, Gelb, Mathews, Odeen, Adm. Owens, Adm. Roughead, Gen. Schwartz and Slaughter. (pdf) http://bit.ly/18ZoOc7 [15]

Components of an Iran deal - While news reports focused on the possibility of a handshake between the US and Iranian presidents, the substance of planned nuclear talks between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are of more importance. Yochi Dreazen at Foreign Policy explains what the U.S. would want out of a possible nuclear deal, including controls on Iran’s uranium enrichment, verifications over its program and controls on Iran’s heavy water reactor.

--Useful perspective: "I don't believe that an ideal deal is possible...But a good enough deal is a heck of a lot better than either going to war or accepting an Iranian bomb. The alternatives to a deal would be far worse,” said former Pentagon official Colin Kahl. Full story here. http://atfp.co/18prBiJ [16]

Tweet - @CNSWolfsthal [17]: Wonder what it is like to visit Iran's enrichment facility at Natanz. We can do that at @CNS_Updates and @NTI_WMD http://bit.ly/1bFKtgn [18]

Reconsidering ACDA - The Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) was dismantled 14 years ago, thereby eliminating the United States’ independent advocate for arms control and main repository of technical and verification expertise. How has the closure of ACDA impacted US national security and decision making? Leon Ratz of Harvard’s Belfer Center looks into the question and concludes it is time for the administration to reconsider the decision to close ACDA.

--Full report: ”Organizing for Arms Control: The National Security Implications of the Loss of an Independent Arms Control Agency” by Leon Ratz for the Project on Managing the Atom. (pdf) http://hvrd.me/18WqU2g [19]

Events:

--Senate Foreign Relations Committee, hearing on the nominations of Rose Gottemoeller to be Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Frank Rose to be Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance; and Adam Scheinman to be Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation. September 26, 10:00 am. Webcast here.

--Iran and the IAEA resume talks on Iran’s nuclear program. September 27.

--”The U.S.-Russia Relationship: Transcending Mutual Deterrence.” Gary Samore, William Tobey, and Pavel Zolotarev. Moderated by Steven Pifer. September 30, 2:00-3:30 pm @ The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oZSM9 [20]

--"Reform Under Rouhani: Assessing Positive Change In Iran." Discussion with Ramin Asgard, Arash Ghafouri and Geneive Abdo. Sept. 30 from 9:00-10:30 am at Stimson. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/18pv5le [21]