November 21, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke, Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson
Missile malaise - “An unpublished study for the Air Force, obtained by The Associated Press, cites ‘burnout’ among [ICBM] launch officers with their fingers on the triggers of 450 weapons of mass destruction. Also, evidence of broader behavioral issues across the intercontinental ballistic missile force, including sexual assaults and domestic violence.”
--”These indicators add a new dimension to an emerging picture of malaise and worse inside the ICBM force, an arm of the Air Force with a proud heritage but an uncertain future,” reports AP in a big story on the management and cultural problems plaguing the U.S. ICBM force as the weapons lose strategic relevancy.
--The new generation of launch officers has a different view of nuclear weapons. "We all acknowledge their importance, but at the same time we really don't think the mission is that critical," said former missileer Andrew Neal, adding that ICBM launch officers see the threat of nuclear war as "simply non-existent...we practice for all-out nuclear war, but we know that isn't going to happen." Full story here. http://n.pr/I5t6th [1]
Madeleine Albright on Iran negotiations - “I join Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft in support of President Obama’s decision to determine whether the new Iranian government is prepared to reach an agreement that would give confidence to the United States and the world community that it will not build a nuclear weapon,” writes former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in a letter to Congress.
--“An accord by which Iran would curb its nuclear ambitions under strict and intrusive inspections program would greatly improve the long-term security of the United States and our closest allies in the Middle East.” Read the full letter to Congress here.http://bit.ly/17qV3EW [2]
Outlook - “U.S. Says 'Very Hard' to Clinch Deal as Iran Nuclear Talks Resume” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/1c6tUqQ [3]
Tough Talks - “In spite of the difficult issues remaining to be resolved, the greatest danger in the days ahead is posed by the unrealistic demands of the Israeli and Saudi governments that Iran completely abandon its hard-won nuclear enrichment program, and the possibility that members of Congress will further ramp up sanctions if Iran does not capitulate,” writes Greg Thielmann for the Cleveland Plain Dealer. http://bit.ly/1babFUE [4]
Nukes are expensive - “How to Save $48 Billion from the US Nuclear Triad Over the Next 10 Years – While Still Keeping It” by Alexander Pearson for Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/1bUEzGZ [5]
Tweet - @ArmsControlWonk [6]: In 1980, USAF compared MX missile cost estimates to what it cost to buy the Triad. Those are 1980 dollars. http://t.co/dBogf5fett [7]
L’objection - “The French were right on the merits,” in raising objections to the previous draft deal with Iran, writes Jeffrey Lewis. “A freeze on Iran's nuclear program needs to include a freeze on construction work at Arak. France's insistence on a real suspension won't scuttle the deal. The parties are almost certain to work out some compromise on Arak this week, as part of a broader freeze on Iran's nuclear program. The deal will be better for France's intransigence...A suspension in Iran's nuclear programs needs to include activities at the Arak reactor. Allowing Iran to install equipment and accumulate fuel for the reactor is simply not a suspension.”
--”Now, let's be clear: A negotiated agreement with Iran -- even an imperfect one -- deserves our support. The people categorically opposed to an agreement are playing a dangerous game...And, in any event, attacking Iran will virtually guarantee that Tehran goes nuclear. This is probably our last, best chance at a deal.” writes Lewis. Full analysis at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1aTP3Se [8]
L’objection triumphante - “French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on Thursday said world powers were united in supporting France's hard line in international talks over Iran's nuclear program,” reports Stacy Meichtry in an article for The Wall Street Journal. Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/17PbckN [9]
Risk-averse business - Critics of an interim deal with Iran are quick to warn of the crumbling of the sanctions regime, whereby foreign companies would be allowed to re-engage in Iranian markets, bringing relief to the troubled Iranian economy. “The idea that firms would deliberately violate existing U.S. and EU sanctions, under the assumption that enforcement actions would not be forthcoming, stretches the bounds of credulity,” writes Samuel Cutler at The National Interest.
--“These firms will be very wary of investing again without concrete assurances that they will not feel the wrath of U.S. regulatory agencies.” http://bit.ly/IiaCoJ [10]
Hardest part yet to come - “Obama has spent a lot of political capital in the past two weeks simply to convince Congress not to adopt new sanctions. If a deal is reached this week in Geneva, Obama will be faced with the much taller order of getting Congress to actually roll back existing sanctions,” writes Trita Parsi with lessons learned for the serious challenges of implementing a nuclear deal with Iran. Read the full article at Al Jazeera. http://alj.am/17umUEl [11]
Tweet - @mhanham [12]: Take a look at a 3D model of #India's #nuclear submarine made by @CNS_Updates for @NTI_WMD http://t.co/hyrc1V0uMS [13]
Iran commentary:
--”The Gipper's Guide to Negotiating” by former Secretary of State George Shultz in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1h5257S [14]
--”Now is the Time for Diplomacy with Iran” by British Ambassador to the U.S., Sir. Peter Westmacott in The Hill. http://bit.ly/18aYfYf [15]
--”Solving the Iran Nuclear Puzzle” by Maj. Gen. Roger Blunt (USA, ret.) in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1ek7N2c [16]
Changing the relationship - “Iran seems -- finally -- genuinely interested in seeking ways out of the current impasse...Let's help them. We should seek to enmesh Iran so tightly in economic and cultural partnerships with the United States and international community that future hostilities become unthinkable,” writes Rosa Brook in Foreign Policy about a possible, longer term goal for enhancing U.S. relations with Iran. http://atfp.co/19KKAku [17]
Event:
--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg [18]
Topic
- Early Warning [19]
- Iran Nuclear Program [20]
- Iran sanctions [21]
- Iran Negotiations [22]
- Air Force [23]