On the radar: The Pentagon gets ahead of itself on missile defense; Calculating the risk of sanctioning Russia; Ukraine’s impact on Iran talks; MOX plant shelved due to rising cost; Preventing nuclear terrorism; and Was it a missile or ASAT test.

March 18, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Misplaced optimism - “U.S. congressional auditors have concluded the Pentagon is likely being too optimistic in its time schedule for achieving certain antimissile capabilities in Europe,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. The Defense Department presently intends to declare the second and third phases of the European Phased Adaptive Approach ‘technically capable’ in 2015 and 2018. This is in spite of the fact that problems getting the plan's next-generation ballistic missile technology to work correctly have already caused the department to postpone deployment of some capabilities as compared to original plans, the Government Accountability Office concluded in a Friday report.”

--“The Obama administration's blueprint for supporting NATO missile defense involves the gradual fielding through 2020 of increasingly capable interceptors at sea and at bases in Poland and in Romania. The stated aim of the antimissile deployments is to protect Europe from potential ballistic missile attacks by Iran, though Russia has long accused NATO of covertly seeking to undermine strategic nuclear stability on the continent. Senior U.S. officials have consistently said that implementation of the European missile defense plan is ‘on track.’ But the findings from the GAO picture suggest that some time schedules within the plan could be imperiled because of technology- and acquisition-related challenges.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/OsAK3X [1]

Calculated risk - “Before slapping Russia with the most serious sanctions since the Cold War era, the Obama administration calculated that such a breach in bilateral relations wouldn’t affect joint U.S.-Russian efforts on other urgent diplomatic initiatives, especially with Syria and Iran,” reports Hannah Allam for McClatchy. “Foreign policy analysts said the gamble behind the administration’s announcement Monday of sanctions against 11 Russian and Ukrainian officials – the alleged architects of the Crimea annexation campaign – makes sense.”

--“The U.S. focus on chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict fulfills Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal of keeping Syrian President Bashar Assad in power, and Russian influence in the talks on Iran’s nuclear program has diminished, according to analysts who specialize in U.S.-Russian relations. Those conclusions suggest that the State Department’s compartmentalization policy will succeed, avoiding a severing of U.S.-Russian ties but still light years away from what the Obama administration once had envisioned as a ‘reset’ with Moscow.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1lKVU8w [2]

Little impact - “Iran and six world powers sought on Tuesday to make headway toward resolving their decade-old nuclear dispute, with Western officials expressing hope talks would not be further complicated by the Ukraine crisis,” write Justyna Pawlak and Louis Charbonneau in Reuters. “The March 18-19 meeting between Iran and the powers - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - began a day after Washington and the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian officials over events in Crimea,” though diplomats so far have said that “there is little sign that the worst East-West confrontation since the Cold War would undermine the quest for a deal over Iran's atomic activity and avert the threat of a Middle East war.” Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/1gCiRtP [3]

MOX spending - “Plans to shelve a plutonium fuel factory in South Carolina are being driven by what the federal government says are escalating costs of the project,” writes Sammy Fretwell for The State. “The mixed oxide fuel plant would hit taxpayers with $30 billion in construction, operating and other costs if the project gears up — an amount the U.S. Department of Energy says is unaffordable, according to federal budget documents released over the weekend.”

--“The Union of Concerned Scientists’ Ed Lyman, who has followed the MOX issue for years, said the plant was never a good idea. Not only is it becoming increasingly expensive, but the plant would make a fuel that would have to be transported at public risk across highways to atomic power plants, he said. The government should have turned the material into waste, he said. That program, known as immobilization, was dropped more than a decade ago because the government said it was not affordable. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1g6y6wk [4]

Cold stand-by - “Officials have confirmed that the proposed cold stand-by for the MOX facility under construction at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site is already underway,” reports Derrek Asberry for the Aiken Standard. “Placing the facility in cold stand-by basically means the National Nuclear Security Administration will not move forward with work on the Mixed Oxide Fuel, or MOX, site while officials examine other options.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/OsGNpa [5]

Tweet - @SchwartzCNS [6]: NNSA FY15 budget cuts nuclear warhead dismantlement by 45% and reduces dismantlement at the Pantex Plant by 40% - http://bit.ly/1kXx1ct [7]

Preventing nuclear terrorism - “World leaders are expected to call next week for more action to minimize civilian use of highly-enriched nuclear fuel to help prevent al Qaeda-style militants from obtaining atomic bombs,” according to a draft summit statement. “Holding a third nuclear security summit since 2010, in The Hague on March 24-25, leaders from 53 countries - including U.S. President Barack Obama - will say much headway has been made in reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism in the past four years. But they will also make clear that many challenges remain and stress the need for increased international cooperation to make sure that highly-enriched uranium (HEU), plutonium and other radioactive substances do not fall into the wrong hands. Fredrik Dahl has the story in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1nAQQIC [8]

Tweet - @Cirincione [9]: Here's an excellent summary of what to expect at the NSS from Matt Bunn. Look for his full report issued later today. http://t.co/1Fh4AfDnK4 [10]

Sideline meeting - “Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama will hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in the Netherlands next week,” AFP reports. “China is ready to work with the United States to ensure positive outcomes of the security summit and the bilateral meeting. and inject new impetus to China-US relations,” says the Chinese foreign minister. Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1lKXual [11]

Missile or ASAT? - “A detailed analysis of satellite imagery published Monday provides additional evidence that a Chinese rocket launch in May 2013 billed as a research mission was actually a test of a new anti-satellite weapon based on a road-mobile ballistic missile,” Andrea Shalal reports for Reuters. “U.S. military officials have been increasingly vocal about China's development of anti-satellite weapons over the past year, but they have not been nearly as critical as they were after China destroyed a defunct weather satellite in orbit in 2007, creating more than 3,000 pieces of debris.” Read the full report here. http://reut.rs/1if27J1 [12]

--Full report: “Through a Glass, Darkly: Chinese, American, and Russian Anti-satellite testing in Space” by Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation, March, 17 2004 (pdf) http://bit.ly/1gCveWS [13]

Tweet - @StephenUCS [14]: More space stuff: attacking the GPS system effectively is harder than one might think, and would take time: http://bit.ly/1gCqYXh [15]

Asking for help - “A group of non-nuclear-armed nations is preparing to urge China to join Russia and the United States in negotiating new arms control agreements,” Global Security Newswire reports. “A draft statement that is to be considered at a 12-nation foreign-minister level meeting taking place in April in Hiroshima would urge the expansion of reduction negotiations that thus far have involved only Washington and Moscow. The joint statement basically appears aimed at China, as it is the only recognized nuclear power seen to be adding to its weapon capabilities.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/NqJPJv [16]

Tweet - @CNS_MasakoToki [17]: Rose Gottemoeller is scheduled to be at 8th NPDI Ministerial Meeting in Hiroshima in April. http://t.co/OX5tB6Mx6p [18]

Events:

--“Strategic Implications of North Korean Nuclear Missiles.” Discussion with Sugio Takahashi. March 20 from 10:30 to 12:00 at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1g2HVeK [19]

--“Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes? Data, Interpretation and Fact.” Discussion with Toby Dalton and Guarev Kampani. March 21 at 9:30 at the Atlantic Council, 12th floor, 1030 15th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1gysF8k [20]

--“Implications on Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in South Asia.” Discussion with Jeffrey McCausland. March 26 from 12:30-2:30 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St. NW, 12th floor. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1kBZQbR [21]

--“Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons Initiative and its Relationship to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Discussion with Ira Helfand and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova. March 31 from 9:30-11:30 at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW.

--“Creating a Legacy for the Nuclear Security Summit.” Discussion with Kenneth Luongo and Sharon Squassoni. April 2 from 12:00-1:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2nd floor conference room A, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to PPP@csis.org