On the radar: Arms control, budgets and European security; Banning hypersonic missiles; IAEA probe stalls; Arms control retrenchment; Russian nuclear exercise; Missile defense is a poor investment; the Bomber wars; and a How-to for turning Syrian WMD into garbage.

September 3, 2014 | Edited by Geoff Wilson, Jacob Marx and Benjamin Loehrke

Paying for reassurance - “There is both a security and essential budgetary incentive for NATO to try to implement reassurance and defense policies in ways that seek to preserve existing areas of cooperation with Russia and leave open pathways for rebuilding trust...following the NATO summit in Wales, new NATO requirements relating to conventional reassurance and defense could be the catalyst to a change in NATO’s nuclear posture over the next few years so that it is more credible, safer and affordable; a substantial portion of the savings could be devoted to sustaining and expanding NATO’s reassurance initiatives,” writes Steve Andreasen for the European Leadership Network.

--“Despite renewed calls by some for the Alliance to delay any changes to NATO’s nuclear posture (and to incur the substantial financial and political costs necessary to maintain the status quo), important decisions relating to that posture will need to be taken over the next few years – and will overlap with decisions relating to funding and the future direction of any reassurance activities.”

--“One sensible [answer for how to fund reassurance requirements] is for Washington and its NATO allies to move over the next few years to: reduce the staggering costs associated with a planned $13 billion modernization of the U.S. B61 nuclear bomb now stored in European bunkers and associated NATO Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA); decisively alter the nuclear component of NATO’s defense posture; and use these savings to capitalize various reassurance initiatives over at least the next five years.” Read the full piece for specifics on how to reassure NATO while phasing out the physical presence of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe. http://bit.ly/1Cq7500 [1]

Hypersonic ban - “Because hypersonic missiles now in development have no foreseeable civilian role and no likely military role outside of major war between nuclear-armed states, and because a hypersonic arms race would contribute to strategic destabilization, it would seem reasonable to seek a way to avert such a race. A ban on hypersonic missile testing could do just that with, most likely, little need for extensive negotiations on verification,” writes Mark Gubrud in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

--“It is important for the United States—the world leader in hypersonic missile development—to pursue an international hypersonic missile test ban, which could be easily verified and, once put in place, would end an arms race that already involves the United States, China, Russia, and India, with France, the United Kingdom and probably other countries lurking in the wings.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1rMxXon [2]

Iran IAEA probe stalled - A recent IAEA probe into Iran’s past nuclear research, including possible research into nuclear weapons, has stalled according to diplomats familiar with the issue.

--“Two diplomats told The Associated Press that Amano's International Atomic Energy Agency will issue a confidential report this week saying that Iran has not provided information to substantially advance the probe, a finding that could affect talks between Iran and six major powers.” Full story from George Jahn for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1tqLJgs [3]

Boom and bust - “Arms control has boom-and-bust cycles. We’re now going through very tough times,” writes Michael Krepon in Arms Control Wonk. “The challenge now is to respond effectively to adversity, to reassure friends and allies, to minimize losses, and to position ourselves for future gains.”

--Krepon uses a historical lens to look at past challenges to presidents’ arms control agendas, highlighting the difficult circumstances for moving the Obama administration’s agenda. “Successful outcomes depend on cooperation among major powers and U.S. leadership which, in turn, depends on bipartisan support and a willingness to take risks. Leadership without followership leads nowhere; followership is coaxed by leveraging others to make stabilizing choices and dissuading them from dangerous ones. The Obama administration has not had the benefit of bipartisan support and hasn’t done well in leveraging desired outcomes.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1umLNf1 [4]

Russian war games - “The forces responsible for Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal will conduct major exercises this month involving more than 4,000 soldiers, the Defence Ministry said on Wednesday, in the latest sign of rising tension with NATO over the Ukraine crisis.” Full story via Reuters. http://reut.rs/1pIpLnr [5]

Missiles aren’t stimulus - “Spending more money on a broken and militarily unnecessary system...would reinforce a backward kind of economic development for the state,” writes Maine State Representative Diane Russell in a letter to the Portland Press Herald. “I know well that Maine’s economy needs a jump start. But there are much more efficient and effective ways to stimulate economic growth in our state.”

--“The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that building an East Coast missile defense site may provide the state with about 700 jobs, while a similar investment in Maine’s wind energy sector could create several thousand. But whatever your preferred method, let’s move past the myth that defense dollars are the best way to invest in the economy – not least because we don’t need the hardware in the first place.” Read the full letter here. http://bit.ly/Y9vpDW [6]

Big bomber business - “Competitions for Pentagon programs have always been cutthroat. But with fewer of them expected in the next decade, each single program is increasingly viewed as a must-win for top Pentagon contractors, driving them to be more creative in their push for a competitive advantage,” writes Amy Butler for Aviation Week & Space Technology.

--“A case in point is how Northrop Grumman, one of the Pentagon’s top contractors, was politically outfoxed by rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin, who temporarily scored a tax-incentive leg up in the duel to build stealthy, new bombers for the U.S. Air Force.” Read the full story on the aerospace giants’ lobbying duel for the $50-$100 billion bomber contract. http://bit.ly/1nWwK6E [7]

Scrapping Syrian WMDs - How do you neutralize 600 tons of sarin and mustard gas? With the Pentagon's Field Deployable Hydrolysis System. Matt Jancer and Wired explain the technology behind turning Syria’s chemical weapons into garbage. Read the full story here. http://wrd.cm/1xaPFo3 [8]

Quick Hits:

--“Finland Is Unhappy With All These Russian Warplanes Penetrating Its Air Space” by David Cenciotti for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1uAcQma [9]

--“Australia to sign civil nuclear deal with India; imposes Russia ban” by Jane Wardell for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1u0pYmb [10]

--“Iran dramatically shifts Iraq policy to confront Islamic State” by Babak Dehghanpisheh for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1rnOgWu [11]

Events:

--President Obama attends the NATO summit in Wales. Sept. 4-5.

--“Iran Negotiations Update: Verification vs. Breakout Capacity” a discussion with Daryl Kimball and Michael Singh, moderated by Barbara Slavin. Sept. 9 from 9:30-11:00am at The Atlantic Council. http://bit.ly/1ogX22L [12]

--“Engaging Iran: A New Way Forward,” World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh event featuring Jessica T. Mathews and Amb. Thomas Pickering. Sept. 9 from 5:00-6:30pm at Point Park University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1vNplyB [13]

--“Debate: U.S. No First Use,” Walt Slocombe and Jack Mendelsohn engage in a Project on Nuclear Issues debate. Sept. 10 from 6:00-8:00pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/1kYCdhB [14]

--“Nuclear Weapons Testing: History, Progress, Challenges” a Special Event to Mark International Day Against Nuclear Tests, with presentations from: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, NNSA Administrator Frank G. Klotz and Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. Sept. 15 from 12:30-5:00pm at the U.S. Institute of Peace. http://bit.ly/1lynIS4 [15]

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues presents Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Department of State's Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation. Sept. 16 from 12:00-1:30pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/W6m7Xj [16]

--“Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations with the P5+1" featuring Ebrahim Mohseni and Steven Kull. Sept. 17 from 10:00-11:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1tqCz3r [17]