On the radar: A smaller, independent deterrent; Strategies and budget priorities; Reading Iran; Improving India-Pakistan relations; Catastrophe and diversity; and Globetrotters in Pyongyang.
May 30, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus
Fewer than four - A highly-anticipated report by the British coalition government “analyzing alternatives to a plan to replace the UK’s aging fleet of ballistic subs, could include the recommendation that fewer than four” subs could be built, according to informed insiders.
--”Building fewer than four new Vanguard submarines might result in a minimum of $7.5 billion in savings on design work and $1.5 billion in yearly maintenance and operations expenses, sources said the review is expected to find.”
--“The governing Conservative Party supports a "like-for-like" plan to spend a minimum of $30 billion building four new Vanguard-class submarines that would be armed with Trident ballistic missiles. The government has agreed to withhold final approval of the plan until after the next general election in 2015.” reports the Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/lxPYF [1]
Strategies and tradeoffs - If the Pentagon is forced to scale back its budgets under the Budget Control Act, what’s the best way to rebalance U.S. military capabilities on tighter budgets? Participants from four prominent think tanks - CSBA, AEI, CNAS, and CSIS [2] - laid out strategies and explored the tradeoffs of possible budget scenarios.
--Highlights: Most of the proposed savings came from Pentagon personnel cuts and base closures, which all four think tank teams included. On nuclear items, “All four cut the nuclear ICBM force by at least a third...[and] Three of the four cancelled the current Ground-Based Interceptor program in favor of developing more advanced missile defenses.” Sydney Freedberg of Breaking Defense sums up the think tank exercise and the sanguine outlooks of its participants. http://bit.ly/10Cgujw [3]
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--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org [6]. Want to support this work? Click here [7].
Tweet - @rethink_media [8]: Confidence building, not ultimatums, the key to solving the #Iran #nuclear standoff - Paul Pillar http://t.co/HmTV6XQrXm [9]
Managing relations on the subcontinent - For the past decade, the U.S. presence in Afghanistan has helped to ease Indo-Pakistani tensions. As such, many in India and Pakistan have expressed concern that the U.S. withdrawal of its forces from the region by 2014 could destabilize the region and contribute to renewed Indo-Pakistani conflict. However, the election of Nawaz Sharif to be Pakistan’s next president - who has expressed his commitment to improving relations - “could yield greater cooperation” between the neighboring nuclear states. Seth Jones in The Wall Street Journal has the story. http://owl.li/lxLWA [10]
Tweet - @StephenUCS [11]: Wildly misleading chart by @AFGlobalStrike omits major US upgrades, hypes NKorean capabilities. Story by @nukestrat. http://bit.ly/ZeNFZt [12]
Comings and goings - Following his departure from the State Department, Robert Einhorn’s position - special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control - will be dissolved and his portfolio divvied up among four high-ranking diplomats. Assistant Secretary Thomas Countryman will take over Einhorn’s North Korea responsibilities; Amb. Dan Fried will get Einhorn’s sanctions turf; Under Secretary Wendy Sherman will assume Einhorn’s role in Iran policy; and the rest will go to acting Under Secretary Rose Gottemoeller. John Hudson at Foreign Policy has the story. http://owl.li/lxJwF [13]
Speed Reads -
--”Navy Ships Make up First Line of Missile Defense as Threats from Iran, North Korea Increase” from the AP. http://wapo.st/12jYZYd [14]
--”Nations Refresh Campaign to Catch WMD Smugglers” by Chris Schneidmiller for Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/11dGCAE [15]
--”U.N. Nuclear Investigation Could be Foiled by Clean-up: Diplomats” by Fredrik Dahl at Reuters. http://reut.rs/10Cezvl [16]
Not so speedy read - “The Bomb Didn't Beat Japan... Stalin Did” by Ward Wilson in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/18yuyPa [17]
Events:
--”Ballistic Missile Defense- Technical, Strategic and Arms Control Challenges.” Discussion with Phil Coyle, George Lewis, Bruce MacDonald, Pierce Corden, and Charles Ferguson to moderate. June 6th from 4:45-7:00pm at AAAS, reception to follow. Details here. http://bit.ly/188gZ90 [18]
--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the defense authorization bill, H.R. 1960, which includes the nuclear weapons and nuclear nonproliferation programs of NNSA. June 5, 10:00 am. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lsGRO [19]
--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, hearing on the Missile Defense Agency budget, with Vice Adm. James Syring, Director, Missile Defense Agency. June 5, 10:00 am. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lsHgp [20]
--"Missiles in South Asia: Deterrence Stability on the Subcontinent.” Rob Williams and Dinshaw Mistry. June 5 12:30-2:30 pm @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/lsHBz [21]
Dessert:
Prompt Google Strike - “New, Improved Google Maps Lets User Launch Missile At Any Location On Globe” quips The Onion. http://onion.com/18yyrnb [22]
Tweet - @BeschlossDC [23]: Here in Cold War 1957, a Redstone missile model installed in Grand Central by US Army & Chrysler to awe New Yorkers: http://t.co/x7GX8PvdFY [24]
Nuclear catastrophe and environmental security - During the Cold War, defense planners reasoned that, if nuclear war broke out, one of the best ways to aide any survivors was to have a wide variety of agricultural products in U.S. strategic food stores. Today, that’s called biodiversity, and it reduces vulnerability in agriculture and in ecosystems. Jacob Darwin Hamblin in The New York Times argues that, given challenges to environmental security today, the we need to embrace the biodiversity lessons from the Cold War. http://nyti.ms/13lODme [25]
Globetrotters in Pyongyang - When Dennis Rodman visited North Korea in February, he sat next to Kim Jong-un and watched the Harlem Globetrotters play a North Korean basketball team. Video of the game was briefly posted on YouTube before getting taken down, but Alicia Wittmeyer at Foreign Policy got a glimpse of it first. Highlights: North Korea scored first, the game somehow ended in a 110-110 tie and nobody played any defense. A documentary about this strange episode of basketball diplomacy will air on HBO on June 14. http://atfp.co/11D0nn5 [26]
Topic
- Early Warning [27]
- Trident [28]
- Nuclear Budget [29]
- CSIS [30]
- ICBM [31]
- India-Pakistan [32]
- Robert Einhorn [33]
- Thomas Countryman [34]
- Wendy Sherman [35]
- Rose Gottemoeller [36]
- Dennis Rodman [37]