Challenges Facing Tactical Nuclear Weapon Negotiations with Russia

Today's top nuclear policy stories, events, and analysis with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today - Friday, April 15, 2011: 

"Big Challenges" in U.S.-Russian Tactical Nuke Talks, Samore Says - Global Security Newswire [link]

• Significant issues are likely to arise in potential talks on drawing down the U.S. and Russian arsenals of tactical nuclear weapons, White House coordinator for arms control and nonproliferation Gary Samore told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
• "In many ways the two sides have a big difference of view in terms of numbers and mission, and that will complicate efforts to achieve any arms control agreement that includes tactical nuclear weapons."
• "I think ultimately, the two sides will have to talk about whether there are ways to allow access to storage facilities to verify that tactical nuclear weapons are not being removed," Samore added.
• "But that's an area that we're prepared to begin discussion with the Russians over: what kind of access and verification arrangements, you know, we could design in order to verify tactical nuclear weapons. It's never been done before, so it probably will take some time to work that out."

EVENT: The Obama Administration and the Future of Nuclear Arms Control - April 15, 10 a.m. - 3:30 p.m. EST [link]

• The Political Science Association of Boston College is hosting a conference on teh future of nuclear arms control featuring the nation’s leading scholars and practitioners in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.
• Speakers include Ambassador Christopher Hill, Dean of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver; David Sanger, Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times; Professor Frank N. von Hippel, Co-Chairman of the International Panel on Fissile Materials; and Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund.
• The keynote address will be delivered by Ambassador Marcie Berman Ries, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Nuclear and Strategic Policy.

U.S. Executes "Most Challenging" Missile-Defense Test - Jim Wolf for Reuters [link]

• The U.S. military said it had successfully completed its "most challenging" missile intercept test yet, using Lockheed Martin Corp and Raytheon Co hardware to shoot down an intermediate-range ballistic target over the Pacific.
• The test, which took place Friday west of Hawaii, validated capabilities required in the first phase of President Barack Obama's revamped approach to defending Europe and U.S. forces deployed there, the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, or MDA, said in a statement.
• The Obama administration is racing this year to wrap up the initial phase of a layered, multibillion-dollar antimissile bulwark in Europe. U.S. officials describe it as a hedge against missiles that could be fired by Iran and perhaps tipped with chemical, biological or nuclear warheads.

Bad Betting Advice on Iran from The Washington Post - Greg Thielmann for"Arms Control Now" an Arms Control Association Blog [link]

• The Washington Post’s editors are reinforcing the Iranian government’s narrative with respect to Tehran’s nuclear program. Last November, the editors criticized Defense Secretary Gates for “talking down military action [against Iran].” This week, they assert that a “better course [than pursuing negotiations] is to bet on a renewed popular uprising in Iran.”
• These policy prescriptions play into Tehran’s version of the dispute between the international community and the Islamic Republic – i.e., the United States and its allies are intent on forcing regime change; negotiations are a ruse to deny Iran its right as a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to pursue a peaceful nuclear energy program.
• Since few Iran experts believe that regime change in the near term is likely, the Post’s narrow prescription looks naïve and self-defeating. The editors are right that simply waiting for Iran’s regime to negotiate is too passive, but abandoning all attempts at negotiation is not the proper reaction to such passivity.
• Maximizing opportunities for engagement – such as lifting bans on encounters with Iranian diplomats – would be advisable; talking up the military option is not. Considering the unpredictability of popular uprisings and the obvious downsides of using military force, continuing pursuit of diplomacy is a no-brainer. Negotiating adequate safeguards with whatever government rules in Tehran is the best bet for surmounting the current crisis as soon as possible.

Playing Nice with North Korea - Selig S. Harrison for The National Interest [link]

• The White House has adopted a rigid stance, insisting that Pyongyang take denuclearization steps as a precondition for dialogue, and more importantly, resisting bilateral negotiations prior to the resumption of the six-party denuclearization discussions conducted by the Bush administration.
• The Obama administration is missing a perfect opportunity. The present rigid US policy undermines the moderates in the Pyongyang leadership who were moved into key positions by Kim Jung Il at the recent Workers Party Congress.
• With North Korea now facing an acute food shortage, [Former President Jimmy] Carter, [who is visiting North Korea], could explore a long-term U.S. food-aid commitment to Pyongyang in return for denuclearization concessions. Pyongyang’s United Nations Ambassador, Han Song Ryol, has proposed such a deal repeatedly to me in past years.
• While a food aid offer alone would be desirable, a better approach would be to combine offers of long-term energy aid and long-term food aid linked to denuclearization demands.

Obama Urged to Limit Russia Missile Shield Sway - AFP [link]

• President Barack Obama must beat back any Russian demands for "red-button" sway over a missile shield in Europe and deny Moscow access to sensitive data tied to the program, US senators urged Thursday.
• The 39 lawmakers, all Republican foes of the White House, said in a letter to Obama that they were "concerned" Russia would exploit his desire for bilateral cooperation on the issue to "undermine" US national security.
• The group, led by Republican Senator Mark Kirk, warned against giving Moscow any right to veto use of the shield or providing Russia with "access to America's most sensitive missile defense data and technology."
• The senators urged the president to "make clear in every engagement with Russia that it will have no say in the location, capability or timing of U.S. missile defense deployments with a NATO military alliance."