Clinton at the NPT: "US Has Led Through Deeds, Not Simply Through Words"

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today, Tuesday, May 4, 2010:

Remarks at the Review Conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty - Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton [link]

• I represent a President and a country committed to a vision of a world without nuclear weapons and to taking the concrete steps necessary that will help us get there. And along with my delegation, I come to this conference with sincere and serious proposals to advance the fundamental aims of the NPT and strengthen the global nonproliferation regime.
• We know there are some countries who will choose not to be constructive. This morning, Iran’s president offered the same tired, false, and sometimes wild accusations against the United States and other parties at this conference. But that’s not surprising. As you all heard this morning, Iran will do whatever it can to divert attention away from its own record and to attempt to evade accountability. Ultimately, however, we will all be judged not for our words but for our actions. 
• But Iran will not succeed in its efforts to divert and divide. The United States and the great majority of the nations represented here come to this conference with a much larger agenda: to strengthen a global nonproliferation regime that advances the security of all nations, to advance both our rights and our responsibilities. 
• So to realize this goal, we must recommit ourselves to strengthening the three pillars of the nonproliferation regime. And with respect to those three pillars – nuclear disarmament, access to civilian nuclear energy, and nonproliferation – this Administration, the United States has led through deeds, not simply through words.
• The last 40 years have proved that nuclear proliferation is not inevitable. We believe it can be stopped, but it will take all of us here recognizing common dangers and finding common ground, rolling up our sleeves and getting creative, taking practical steps together in the next month.
• Watch the full video of Secretary Clinton's speech:

U.S. Discloses Size of Nuclear Arsenal - Los Angeles Times [link]

• The Obama administration disclosed the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal for the first time on Monday, issuing a set of figures that has remained an official government secret since the Manhattan project during World War II.
• The administration said the stockpile consists of 5,113 active and inactive warheads, down from a high of 31,255 in 1967, in the years after the Cuban missile crisis.
• Although no U.S. administration had ever revealed the current size of its weapons stockpile, the number came as little surprise. Most experts had made estimates close to the actual figures. The Federation of American Scientists, which advocates arms control, for instance, had estimated the inventory at 5,100. 
• "We think it is in our national security interests to be as transparent as we can be about the nuclear program of the United States," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said at a news conference at the United Nations. "We think that builds confidence."
• Note: To see the fact sheet released by the NNSA and DoD, "Increasing Transparency in the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile," please click here.
  

Defining Success for the NPT Review Conference - Deepti Choubey of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [link]

• This month, nearly 190 countries will gather at the United Nations in New York to strengthen the global rules for preventing the further spread and use of nuclear weapons.
• Casting this conference as a political referendum or a make-or-break moment for the nonproliferation regime is a mistake. The Review Conference is tasked with evaluating how well the terms of the NPT have been implemented and to chart a path forward to tackle unfinished business.
• The highest order success would be a substantive final declaration agreed to by all parties. By comparison, a meaningless, lowest common denominator document agreed to by all, would be more farce than progress. Falling short of meaningful agreement by all, the next successful outcome would be a substantive text, either an action plan or statement from the Review Conference chair that reflects a diverse group of influential states’ willingness to take steps to strengthen compliance with nonproliferation rules, further reduce the roles and numbers of nuclear weapons, and facilitate responsible nuclear cooperation. 
• Whatever happens in New York, the true test will occur after the Review Conference. [...] By recognizing that stabilizing and strengthening the nonproliferation regime is a shared responsibility of all nations, any number of states can bolster prospects for success. President Obama has set the stage, but it is now time for everyone to act.

Nuclear Attack a Ticking Time Bomb, Experts Warn - CBS News [link]

• Martin Hellman, who has been focusing on nuclear deterrence for the past 25 years, said that a baby born today, with an expected lifetime of 80 years, faces a greater than 50-50 chance that a nuclear weapon attack will occur unless the number of weapons and available weapons-grade material is radically reduced.
• In a 2005 survey of 85 national security experts, 60 percent of the respondents assessed the odds of a nuclear attack within 10 years at between 10 and 50 percent, with an average of 29.2 percent. Nearly 80 percent of respondents expected the attack to originate with a terrorist group.
• "Even a 1 percent chance over the next 10 years is a huge risk," said Matthew Bunn, an associate professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and an expert on nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
• The effects of a nuclear detonation would be catastrophic. According to Bunn, a 10-kiloton bomb (equivalent explosive power to 10,000 tons of TNT and modestly smaller than the Hiroshima bomb) detonated in midtown Manhattan in the middle of workday could kill half a million people and cause $1 trillion in direct economic damage.
• Bunn maintains the primary focus should be on securing and accounting for nuclear weapons and material caches, reducing the chance for theft or illicit use.

A View from the Dark Side

The New START Treaty: Under Fire - The Heritage Foundation's Foundry Blog [link]

• The New START Treaty, which was signed on April 8th, 2010, in Prague, is being heralded by the Obama Administration as a major national security accomplishment. However, it is coming under close scrutiny and criticism by the leading US experts.
• This is not surprising as the document raises grave concerns – either directly in the text of the treaty or through implicit linkages and deals that were made during negotiations.
• The Heritage Foundation has just released an independent assessment of the new START treaty that explains in detail how this treaty works to limit U.S. missile defenses and details numerous other problems. Just to highlight a few problems detailed in the report, the treaty does not address a pressing issues in European security and of major concern to U.S. allies—Russian tactical nuclear weapons.