Debate Over Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Persists

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today - Thursday, March 10, 2011:

Iran’s Nuclear Intentions - Laicie Olsen for "Nukes of Hazard" a project of the Center for Arms Control & Nonproliferation [link]

• A few big things have come out recently with regard to Iran’s nuclear program. While some were long awaited and highly anticipated, such as the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), none turned out to be particularly earth shattering.
• A new NIE on Iran’s nuclear program will remain classified, but reportedly walks back the conclusions of the controversial 2007 NIE, which stated that Iran had ceased its nuclear weapons activities in 2003. Reports indicate that while Iran may not have made the ultimate decision to build a nuclear weapon, due to internal politics and external pressure, it is likely working on the components of such a device.
• “We believe Iran is moving to the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability,” Robert Einhorn, the State Department's senior adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, said at a briefing today. Due to the inefficient nature of Iran’s uranium enrichment technology, though, Einhorn says that “it would make no sense” for Iran to make the decision to build a nuclear weapon at this point.
• Additionally, IAEA Chief Yukiya Amano reported Monday that Iran may have engaged in nuclear weaponization studies more recently than previously thought.  [Today], Army Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), will appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee to deliver his assessment of world threats facing the US. His prepared statement, released today, suggests that any new news from the US is likely to be equally optimistic.

Funding for U.S. Nuclear Triad Set to Grow - Tom Z. Collina for Arms Control Today [link]

• President Barack Obama last month sent Congress a budget request for fiscal year 2012 that would significantly increase funding for maintenance of the nuclear stockpile, modernization of the weapons production complex, upgrades to strategic delivery systems, and deployment of ballistic missile interceptors.
• All told, these commitments, which were key to winning Department of Defense and Senate support for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), would add up to almost $300 billion over the next decade. The budget documents add specifics to the earlier commitments.
• Speaking Feb. 16 at a nuclear policy conference in Arlington, Va., NNSA Administrator Thomas D’Agostino said that the fiscal year 2012 budget was “the first payment on the $85 billion commitment” that the administration made last November as part of the updated “National Defense Authorization Act of FY 2010 Section 1251 Report.”
• As required by the Senate’s New START resolution of ratification, Obama certified Feb. 2 that he intends to “modernize or replace the triad of strategic nuclear delivery systems,” including a heavy bomber and air-launched cruise missile (ALCM), an ICBM, and an SLBM and a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine to launch it. These items are included in the $553 billion Defense Department budget request for fiscal year 2012.
• The administration is requesting $10.7 billion for missile defense in fiscal year 2012, up from the current $10.2 billion. This total does not include $995.2 million for the Space Based Infrared System-High satellite program. Annual funding for missile defense is expected to remain roughly at $10 billion for the next decade.
  

Congress Likely To Trim Nuke Labs Budget - The Associated Press [link]

• Congress this week signaled a willingness to roll back some of the nuclear weapons budget increases pushed by the Obama administration. The proposed increases, which the administration says are needed to maintain aging U.S. nuclear weapons, were part of a deal worked out late last year to win approval of an arms control deal with the Russians.
• But House Republicans have begun an effort to roll back a portion of the spending as part of attempt to cut the federal budget. The U.S. Senate showed Wednesday it may be willing to go along. "The Senate cut less, but certainly followed suit," said Nickolas Roth, a nuclear weapons policy analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists.
• The Obama administration asked for $7 billion for the weapons program in the current fiscal year, up 10 percent from last year. The House spending plan would roll that back to $6.7 billion -- still a 7 percent increase, but less than the administration requested. The Senate's counteroffer was $6.8 billion, suggesting the final amount negotiated will be somewhere between the two, [said David Culp, lobbyist with the Friends Committee on National Legislation, a peace group].

Fighting Raises Concerns About Libyan Scientists - Douglas Birch for The Washington Post [link]

• The fighting in Libya has disrupted a sensitive U.S. government program to keep about 700 former nuclear and chemical weapons experts busy on civilian projects in the medical and petroleum industries there and prevent them from selling their dangerous knowledge in other countries, The Associated Press has learned.
• After Libya agreed to give up its weapons of mass destruction in 2003, the U.S. has been spending about $2 million a year to steer weapons scientists and technicians into other fields, including medicine, green technology and the oil and gas industry, current and former U.S. officials told the AP.
• "If they're facing an uncertain future, they may just walk," said Sharon Squassoni, an arms control specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
• Citing the sensitivity of the program, the State Department and Energy Department declined to discuss it further. But experts told the AP that the Obama administration must be concerned about what happens to weapons scientists in Libya.

U.S. Concerned Chinese Companies May Be Aiding Iran Nuclear Weapon Effort - Indira A.R. Lakshmanan for Bloomberg [link]

• The U.S. government is concerned Iran may be working with Chinese companies to obtain sensitive technology that may be useful for developing a nuclear weapons capability, Robert Einhorn, the State Department’s special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, said yesterday.
• “Implementation is not uniform,” said Einhorn, speaking at an event sponsored by the nonprofit Arms Control Association at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.  Einhorn’s comments are the latest reflection of unease among U.S. officials and proliferation experts that China remains a gap in enforcing United Nations sanctions on Iran, which the government in Beijing supported last year.
• A Defense Intelligence Agency assessment scheduled for release to Congress today concludes that “international economic sanctions are not stopping Iran’s drive to enrich uranium,” according to an advance copy of the 2011 World Wide Threat Assessment.
• [However] Kenneth Katzman, an analyst for the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, said sanctions have had a discernible impact on the energy industry in Iran, where new investment has essentially dried up. “Iran is now viewed by international businessmen as a third rail -- you touch it, you die,” he said, citing a reported 75 percent to 80 percent drop in sales of refined gasoline to Iran following U.S. sanctions last year.