Evaluating Threats, Developing Strategy

On the radar: Smart planning; Anticipating a deal with Iran; Is a deal likely?; India’s ICBM; (Mis)reporting on Iran; Samore on Istanbul; and North Korean rockets and U.S. missile defense.

April 18, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Threats, resources, and strategy - “Policymakers need to engage in a serious discussion about what the U.S. nuclear arsenal can and should deter,” but those who point to the Chinese and Russian arsenals to justify US nuclear spending mistaken, writes Greg Thielmann are in Roll Call.

--“The reality that the U.S.-Russia relationship, while contentious, is no longer the zero-sum game of a prior era,” Thielmann writes. “Rather than giving Russia an incentive to rebuild its nuclear forces after their numerical decline, it is in America’s security interest to safely follow a similar path...[eliminating] unnecessary U.S. nuclear forces and using the savings to provide a boon to America’s fragile economic recovery.”

-- On China, the other nuclear bogeyman, Thielmann notes that the US has a 36-to-1 advantage in deployed strategic nuclear weapons. http://owl.li/ampZN

Stage is set - The stage is set for a successful deal with Iran, writes David Ignatius of The Washington Post. Ignatius has a growing reputation for his unrivaled access to the White House on national security issues, which

--“Step-by-step” and “reciprocity” are the key words here, Ignatius writes. In exchange for step-by-step concessions on Iran’s nuclear program, the West may make reciprocal gestures, including - at the minimum - delaying the sanctions that go into effect in July. http://owl.li/amrdk

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A different prediction - Foreign Policy’s Blake Hounshell is less optimistic about the prospects for a deal with Iran, arguing that the Iranian regime is unlikely to agree to “any deal that doesn't visibly benefit Iran - rather than merely preventing future harm,” while election politics make concessions from the US unlikely.

--Hounshell’s prediction: “Talks will proceed for the sake of talks, and a decision about whether to bomb will be deferred until at least November.” http://owl.li/amq2j

India’s ICBM - India is preparing a test launch of its longest-range nuclear-capable missile at any time between now and Friday, Global Security Newswire reports. The three-stage, solid-fueled Agni 5 has a range of 3,100 miles, which puts Beijing within range.

--India, which has a no-first use policy, says its missile systems “ are purely for deterrence” and “not country specific,” but experts say the missile could change the security dynamic with China. http://owl.li/amqgM

Predictable - “GOP dismisses Iran nuclear negotiations.” Jeremy Herb reports for The Hill. http://owl.li/amq4D

SASC hearing - On the Navy budget and shipbuilding programs, tomorrow at 9:30am. Webcast and testimony here. http://owl.li/amqc4

Report: Iran in the media - Media outlets frequently misrepresent Iran’s nuclear program, according to a new report from Media Matters.

--The analysis finds that 31% of network news segments portray an Iranian nuclear weapon as imminent. 24% suggest Iranian President Ahmadinejad has major influence over the country's nuclear program. http://owl.li/amq9T

Quote - “We came away from the discussions in Istanbul with the sense that we have started a process. Whether or not that process will ultimately reach an agreement, it is just too early to tell,” Gary Samore said in a Radio Free Europe interview. http://owl.li/amq7j

Revisiting CTBT - “U.S. action on the CTBT will strengthen U.S. and global security by preventing nuclear proliferation. The facts are clear and the Senate needs to reconsider the treaty based on this latest scientific analysis of the issues,” writes Dr. Robert Dodge for Roll Call. http://owl.li/amqeV

Tweet - @Livableworld: “Great cartoon: N. Korea rockets & US missile defense parity. True in 2006, true in 2012.” http://owl.li/amrDZ