Fake Missiles, Real Program

On the radar: Forecasting from North Korea’s fakes; U.S. has 2,150 operational warheads; Detecting a test; BMD sim; Nuke budget charts; Counter-smuggling; Sanctions expectations; and Re-discovering the bomb.

May 2, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Real fake missiles - The missiles North Korea put on parade a few weeks back are widely recognized as unflyable mockups. But such mockups could be evidence of progress in a real missile program, argues Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk. After all, mockups of the Taepodong 1 and 2 were spotted in the 1990s.

--Do the mockups indicate what path North Korea might take for an ICBM? Perhaps. The North’s missile program used Scud missile technology (enlarged, clustered, and staged) to cobble together Taepodong missiles. Notes Lewis, some analysts could view the recent mockups as indication that North Korea could similarly try to scale up its SS-N-6 missile technology to hash together an ICBM. http://owl.li/aEyYF

US Nuclear Forces - As of early 2012, the U.S. had 1,950 deployed strategic warheads on 798 delivery vehicles, with 200 warheads deployed in Europe. Grand total: an estimated 2,150.

--New report from Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris in The Bulletin. http://owl.li/aEyXb

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Monitoring and detection - If North Korea tests a nuclear device, how long would it take before global scientists would know? “Just within a very few minutes it would be really obvious that they would have done this...The only delay would be the delay in which seismic waves travel around the world to various stations,” said Paul Richards of Columbia University.

--AFP has the story of how the CTBT’s international monitoring system helps ensure detection of any North Korean test explosion. http://owl.li/aEyV1

Missile defense sim - Russia will present a computer simulation of how U.S. missile defense plans would threaten Russia’s deterrent at a conference on missile defenses tomorrow. Bloomberg has the story. http://owl.li/aEyQ7

--Preview: Your humble editors expect Russia’s missile defense simulator will look like this. (Made it to level 3 before getting depressed about my tax dollars.) http://owl.li/aEzm7

Budget charts - Handy charts of the Senate and House marks for the NNSA weapons activities and nonproliferation FY13 budgets, from Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard. http://owl.li/aEyNt

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: Rep. Turner Undercut by Appropriators on CMRR Plutonium Lab" Analysis of n-weapons budget battles. http://owl.li/aEyLO

Stop smugglers, stop proliferation - Whatever the product - small arms, drugs, or nuclear materials - smuggling networks are all interconnected. That’s why counter-smuggling efforts should go beyond nuclear to address all illegal trafficking, write Brian Finlay and Johan Bergenas in World Politics Review. (paywall) http://owl.li/aEyIb

Sanctions gap - Sanctions could be the sticking point in negotiations with Iran, write Barbara Slavin and Laura Rozen in Al-Monitor. Iran seems unwilling to make the nuclear concessions that the West is looking for, while election-year politics may prevent the U.S. from making the concession Iran wants most - sanctions relief. http://owl.li/aEyFu

Event - A briefing with Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris of the Federation of American Scientists for the release of their report on non-strategic nuclear weapons. Thursday the 4th, 2-3pm, in the Senate Russell Building Room 385. RSVP to RSVP@fas.org.

Science and secrecy - In late 1945, a group of scientists from the University of Pennsylvania decided to show the futility of scientific secrecy by writing a report on the workings of atomic bombs using published literature. They largely succeeded, going as far as to “independently derive the idea of implosion” weapons - a big secret at the time.

--Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the history and previously censored chapter of the scientists’ original report. http://owl.li/aEyDE