Fallon, Hagel, Hamilton, Pickering and Zinni on the Implications of Striking Iran

On the radar: Seeking a reasoned debate; Making an Iranian bomb more likely; W76 LEP slipping, costs hiking; Security firm fired; Doomsday Clock; Arihant spotted; and Penciling in the details on a Soviet nuclear test.

October 1, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Objectives and consequences - “Since the consequences of a military attack [on Iran] are so significant for U.S. interests, we seek to ensure that the spectrum of objectives, as well as potential consequences, is understood,” write Adm. William Fallon, Sen. Chuck Hagel, Rep. Lee Hamilton, Amb. Thomas Pickering, and Gen. Anthony Zinni.

--The authors explain the analysis of the recent report by The Iran Project, noting that an attack on Iran could delay Iran’s nuclear program by a few years but at high costs that could include increased likelihood of Iran deciding to build a nuclear weapon and possible regional war. http://wapo.st/PGxyNf

Hastening Iran’s decision - “A surprising number of scholars and military and arms-control experts...argue that a strike could actually lead to Iran’s speeding up its efforts, ensuring the realization of a bomb and hastening its arrival,” writes William J. Broad in The New York Times.

--Quotes from the article: “An attack would increase the likelihood,” said Scott D. Sagan. A strike “would drive them to do what we were trying to prevent,” said then-CIA director Gen. Michael Hayden. “My sense is that the threat of military action makes bad guys feel like they need the bomb,” said Jeffrey Lewis. http://nyti.ms/Suf85J

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: Today is the 20th anniversary of Senate ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) by a vote of 93-6. http://1.usa.gov/R780ZX

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Event - “Time to Rethink Policy Toward Iran” with Suzanne Maloney, Ali Vaez, Amb. Stuart Eizenstat and Barbara Slavin. Thurs. Oct 4 from 10:00-11:30 am at the Atlantic Council. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/PGFZrP

Confused by Netanyahu’s nuclear cartoon? - “Bibi’s Bomb: Guide for the Perplexed” at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/QEMKgq

W76 LEP report - “The W76 Life Extension Program (LEP) has experienced significant delays in startup and in achieving production goals. NNSA may be unable to complete the W76 LEP within established scope, cost and schedule parameters, unless it adopts a more effective approach to reducing unit costs,” according to a new report from the DOE Inspector General.

--”Follow-up Audit of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s W76 Nuclear Warhead Refurbishment Program” (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/UC7vHX

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: Doomsday Clock Symposium to be held November 29th in Washington, DC | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://bit.ly/V65sAD

Contract terminated - Babcock & Wilcox Co, the managing contractor at the Oak Ridge nuclear facility, has terminated its contract with the security firm that was supposed to do things like prevent an 82-year old nun and two other peace activists from breaching security at the Y-12 nuclear facility. Timothy Gardner at Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/QGj2bn

Arihant - “It is not entirely clear, but a new satellite image might be showing part of India’s first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, the Arihant,” writes Hans Kristensen at FAS Strategic Security. The Airhant launched in 2009 and is expected to undergo sea trials through 2013. http://bit.ly/QEH7im

Tweet - @Vali_Nasr: A good read on Ahmadinejad's declining influence: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Finale at the United Nations : http://nyr.kr/O0pKse

Event - “Is the World More Dangerous 50 years after the Cuban Missile Crisis?” with Jane Harman, Michael Dobbs, Graham Alliston, Timothy Naftali and Tom Gjelten. Mon. Oct. 15 from 1:00-2:30pm at the Woodrow Wilson Center. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/RuMgcy

Top Secret/Special Folder - A recently declassified Soviet document on a series of nuclear tests in 1953 lists the amounts of fissile materials used and the yields expected. That level of detail in declassified materials is rare, notes Pavel Podvig at Russian Forces Blog. Podvig has an image of the document and assesses its contents. http://bit.ly/Vjtmab