Freezing Defense, Increasing Nuclear

On the radar: OMB letter on budget constraints; The B53 is big. Really big; Iran’s naval strategy; China’s tunnels; Why Russian warhead numbers went up; Learning from Iran’s dead monkeys; and a Waltzian view on Qaddafi and disarmament.

October 25, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

OMB says freeze defense budget, increase NNSA funds - In a recent letter to the Senate Appropriations Committee, Jack Lew of OMB wrote, “The Administration strongly supports the Senate's allocation of funding, which was driven by 302(b) allocations that passed the Senate Appropriations Committee by a 29 to 1 vote. The DOD funding level, a freeze, will sustain our strong military, while the difficult but manageable reductions in the Department of State and other international programs leave the resources to sustain critical U.S. engagement around the world.”

--”The Administration urges the Congress to support robust funding for NNSA to continue the commitment to modernization of the nuclear weapons complex and to upgrading the stockpile set forth in the Nuclear Posture Review and reaffirmed as part of the New START Treaty ratification process. In addition, at a time when a grave danger is posed by the proliferation of nuclear materials which can fall into the hands of terrorist organizations, the Administration urges support for highly enriched uranium reactor conversions.” (pdf) http://owl.li/78jAY

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Scrapping the big bomb - NNSA just posted photos of B53 dismantlement process on its impressive Flickr feed. Check out the photo set here. http://owl.li/78jzv

Iran’s navy - “While much of the world's attention focuses on Iran's nuclear program, Tehran has made considerable progress on another security front in recent years -- steadily increasing the reach and lethality of its naval forces. The goal by 2025, if all goes as the country has planned, is to have a navy that can deploy anywhere within a strategic triangle from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea to the Strait of Malacca,” writes Jonathan Rue in Foreign Affairs. http://owl.li/78jxZ

How many nukes does China have? - About 240 warheads. However, Bret Stephens notes, “It's unclear why the U.S. arms-control community seems happy to accept Beijing's claims about its nuclear doctrine at face value while dismissing the giant network of tunnels as the equivalent of a Chinese Potemkin village.”

--The 1700-word article about nuclear weapons uses the word “warhead” 6 times and “tunnels” 17 times. http://owl.li/78jvc

--While he does not count tunnel mileage in his assessment of Chinese nuclear forces, Hans Kristensen estimates that China has a total stockpile of 240 nuclear warheads. http://owl.li/78jpX

More on New START data - The latest round of data from New START indicates that Russia’s deployed warhead count rose by 29 to 1566 (16 above the limit Russia needs to reach by 2018). Why the change?

--”Part of the explanation is the deployment of additional RS-24 ICBMs, which carry three warheads each. But that’s a limited deployment that doesn’t account for all. Other parts of the puzzle include continued reduction of the single-warhead SS-25 ICBM force, the operational status of individual Delta IV SSBNs, and possibly retirement of one of the aging Delta III SSBNs,” writes Hans Kristensen. http://owl.li/78jnI

Iran’s missile program - Iran’s unsuccessful attempt to launch a monkey into space has two important implications, writes ACA’s Greg Thielmann. First, Iran’s long-range missile capability is limited, and does not pose an imminent threat. Second, international sanctions have successfully hindered Iran’s space program. http://owl.li/78jlS

Waltz on Qaddafi, Kim, and nuclear weapons - “This gruesome end to Qaddafi's rule has likely confirmed what Kim Jong Il must have long been aware -- a dictator who wants to hold on to power should also hold onto his nuclear weapons,” write Mira Rapp-Hooper and Kenneth Waltz in The Atlantic. http://owl.li/78jjZ