Gates Reassesses the North Korean Missile Threat

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Tuesday January 11, 2011.

Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S. - Elisabeth Bumiller and Michael Wines in The New York Times [link]

• In a major new assessment of North Korea, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said on Tuesday that the country is becoming a direct threat to the United States and was within five years of developing a missile with the potential of hitting Alaska or the West Coast.
• Mr. Gates said that although he expected North Korea’s ability to be limited, he anticipated the country would still develop within that time frame a small number of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could at least potentially deliver nuclear warheads. “I don’t think it’s an immediate threat, but on the other hand I don’t think it’s a five-year threat,’” Mr. Gates said.
• On North Korea, Mr. Gates’ new assessment is a significant shift for the Obama administration, which until now has viewed Pyongyang as a proliferation threat, fearing that it might sell its existing missiles and nuclear devices to other countries, like Iran.
• Implicit in Mr. Gates' five year assessment was the possibility that the North could soon solve one of its biggest technological hurdles: manufacturing a warhead small enough to fit atop a missile.
• Exploding a nuclear device underground, which North Korea did in 2006 and again in 2009, is comparatively simple. Manufacturing a warhead that is light, small and reliable is a far more complex art.
• It is unclear whether the North obtained designs for a warhead from an outside country - especially Pakistan, which sold it uranium enrichment equipment. Designing such a warhead from scratch is difficult, as Iran has learned.

U.S. and China Defense Chiefs Agree to Keep Talking - Elisabeth Bumiller in The New York Times [link]

• The American and Chinese militaries took microsteps on Monday toward smoothing over years of conflict and suspicion, but China’s defense minister sharply defended his country’s arms buildup, pointed to American military sales to Taiwan as a continuing obstacle and deflected an American request for “in-depth strategic dialogue” on nuclear missile defense, space and cyberwarfare.
• Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates had set low expectations for his three-day trip, likely his last visit to Beijing as defense secretary, which he undertook after President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China ordered their militaries to begin working out their differences ahead of Mr. Hu’s visit next week to the White House.
• Regarding American concerns over China’s new weaponry, including a radar-evading jet fighter and an antiship ballistic missile potentially capable of hitting an American aircraft carrier, the Chinese defense minister, Gen. Liang Guanglie, suggested that the United States was overreacting to an effort to modernize.

U.S.-Russian Civilian Nuclear Deal Enters Force - Steve Gutterman in Reuters [link]

• A long-stalled civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between Russia and the United States entered into force on Tuesday in a milestone for the "reset" in relations between the former Cold War foes.
• The agreement, signed in 2008 but shelved by the White House amid acrimony over Russia's war with U.S. ally Georgia, was revived by President Barack Obama as part of his campaign to improve ties and bolster trade and security cooperation.
• It creates a legal framework for closer cooperation between the United States and Russia on civilian nuclear research, production and trade, and both sides said it would help fight nuclear weapons proliferation.
• It comes into force amid expectations that Russian lawmakers will soon vote to ratify New START, a strategic nuclear arms limitation pact that is central to the "reset" and won approval in the U.S. Senate last month.

Flying Laser to Attempt Another Missile Shoot-Down - Nathan Hodge in “Washington Wire” a WSJ Blog [link]

• Last year, the U.S. military achieved what some described as a game-changing first: shooting down a ballistic missile in flight with a laser.
• As early as tonight, testers will attempt to repeat the feat. Missile Defense Agency spokesman Richard Lehner said that the Airborne Laser Test Bed, a modified jumbo jet equipped with a powerful chemical laser, will attempt to knock down a target missile in a test off the California coast.
• If the experiment is a success, it is likely to revive congressional interest in funding the flying laser. In 2009, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates downgraded the program to a research and development effort, canceling plans to procure a second laser-equipped jet.
• A similar test of the Airborne Laser failed in September. That test, originally planned for August, was held up repeatedly over a number of issues. In one instance, the stand that held the target missile up malfunctioned, forcing the cancellation of a test. Another test was called off because of a problem with the cooling system for a tracking camera, a glitch that forced a system reboot.

Clinton Asks Arabs to Oppose Iran Nukes, Support Palestinian Government - Joby Warrick in The Washington Post [link]

• Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton lobbied Arab governments on Monday to help tighten the screws on their Iranian neighbors, saying that sanctions and other measures are hurting Tehran and undermining its ability to acquire components for its nuclear program.
• Repeating a theme she has sounded frequently in trips to the region, Clinton warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would trigger an "extremely dangerous" arms race, and she said Arabs should show common cause with Western powers by helping enforce economic sanctions.
• Iran also is having unspecified "technological problems" that have made it slow down its timetables, Clinton said, a possible reference to technical glitches believed to have been caused by a computer virus. "But the real question is, how do we convince Iran that pursuing nuclear weapons will not make it safer and stronger, but just the opposite?" she asked.
• Questioners from the audience asked polite but pointed questions about the prospects for war in the Middle East and why the United States tolerated nuclear weapons for Israel but not for Iran. On the latter question, Clinton said the Obama administration supports the idea of a nuclear-free Middle East, eventually.