On the radar: Update on Iran’s nuclear capabilities; Iran offers greater supervision; Amb. Daalder on NATO-Russia missile defense talks; Next Generation goes Beyond New START; and welcome back Congress.

September 6, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

IAEA update on Iran’s nuclear program- “Iran is making headway towards rolling out advanced uranium enrichment machines that could speed up its production of nuclear reactor fuel as well as weapons-grade material if, as the West fears, it ultimately tries to assemble atomic bombs,” reports Fredrik Dahl. The IAEA released its latest report on Iran last Friday. http://ow.ly/6mAuv

Assessing the IAEA report (in wonk-ese) - Analysis of the report from ISIS notes that Iran is starting to deploy advanced centrifuges at Natanz but not Fordow. Monthly production of LEU at Natanz decreased slightly, while production of 19.75% LEU increased. Read the full report here. http://ow.ly/6mz1Z

Analyst perspective - "Iran still faces problems developing these new centrifuges, including getting sufficient materials to build them in large numbers,” said Peter Crail of the Arms Control Association. http://ow.ly/6mAdq

Admin perspective - “'What we’ve needed to do with Iran from the start was to buy time,' one senior Obama administration official said recently. 'The fact that it has taken them this long to evade sanctions and build these new centrifuges tells you they are operating pretty slowly.'” http://ow.ly/6mv6a

Welcome to Early Warning. Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

"Full supervision" for fewer sanctions - For the first time in two years, Iran has made a counter-proposal on its nuclear program. “We proposed that the [IAEA] keep Iran’s nuclear program and activities under full supervision for five years provided that sanctions against Iran are lifted,” said Iran’s nuclear chief Fereydoon Abbasi.

Details are lacking - “The spotty nature of Iran’s responses explains why the phrase ‘full supervision’ is so important...If it means that inspectors could visit all the sites on their list, interview scientists who are believed to be linked to military work and review the documents that Iran has declined to turn over, it would mark a significant breakthrough,” reports David Sanger of The New York Times. http://ow.ly/6mvUi

Cold water on the Abbasi announcement - “Iran still has to comply with its international obligations, despite today’s announcement,” said the spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. Flipping Abbasi’s offer on its head, the spokesman reminded that Security Council sanctions are intended to be lifted once confidence is established with Iran’s nuclear program, not the other way around. AFP has the story. http://ow.ly/6myxH

Daalder on NATO and Missile Defense - ”Let there be no doubt: the United States -- and NATO as a whole – is fully committed to taking these steps and to chart a new course in missile defense cooperation with Russia,” said US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder.

--Bringing missile defense cooperation into reality will take a lot of hard work. As Amb Daalder noted, that is happening as the US works out a political statement “that makes it clear that missile defense is directed against a threat coming from outside Europe, not against Russia.” Other technical details are being sorted out in the NATO-Russia Council. Read Amb. Daalder’s full speech here. http://ow.ly/6mDrp

"Beyond New START" - This afternoon the Next Generation Working Group launches its report, “Beyond New START: Advancing U.S. National Security Through Arms Control with Russia.” The launch event, hosted by the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues, will feature remarks from Working Group Co-chairs James Acton and Michael Gerson. Kickoff at 3:00 pm. http://ow.ly/6mBbF

Back on the hill - “Senate Energy and Water Subcommittee marks up FY12 Engergy and Water bill today; nonpro/nuke modernization funding hangs in the balance,” tweets @nukes_of_hazard.