Iran, Nuclear Negotiations and Responding to Syria

On the radar: Numbers on centrifuges and stockpiles; Syria response could complicate Iran opportunity; North Korea working at Yongbyon; and Not going Dutch on nuclear accident remediation.

August 29, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

IAEA Report - The IAEA released its latest report on Iran’s nuclear program. Key findings: Installation of IR-1 centrifuges increased, but only slightly; Startup of Arak is delayed; IR-2m installation increased; Parchin site extensively modified; Stockpile of 20% LEU increased marginally; Iran continues to convert LEU into reactor fuel. Analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security. (pdf) http://ow.ly/onJYn

--Full IAEA report: “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” August 28, 2013. (pdf) http://ow.ly/onJhm

How it played - “Iran Slows Its Gathering of Uranium, Report Says” by William Broad at The New York Times. http://ow.ly/onJRC

What it means - “The findings underscore the urgent need for the United States to work with its negotiating partners, (China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Russia) to negotiate a solution that guards against a nuclear-armed Iran. The August 3 inauguration of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran provides an important opportunity to resume negotiations. Rouhani has called for “greater transparency” in Iran’s nuclear activities and a resumption of serious negotiations,” writes Kelsey Davenport. Full analysis at Arms Control Now. http://ow.ly/onLWz

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Delay not derail - It’s possible that strikes against Syria could jeopardize the opportunity for talks with Iran. However, some argue that strikes in Syria “may delay” negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program “without derailing them.” Ultimately, ‘the pragmatists will win the day by saying ‘Look, we don’t like the U.S. but we have to deal with them” said Volker Perthes in an interview with Bloomberg’s Ladane Nasseri & Leon Mangasarian. http://ow.ly/onPn9

Talking to Iran about Syria - Despite Iran’s stated opposition to military strikes in Syria, “Tehran’s position on chemical weapons and on Syria may, however, provide a window for engagement.” Given Iran’s history as a victim of chemical attacks in the Iran-Iraq war, Iran’s leadership has taken a strong stance against chemical weapons, and has established their use as a “red line.”

--Before pursuing a diplomatic surge with Syria, the U.S. first needs to “talk business with Iran. You make peace with your enemies, not your friends,” writes Andrew Parasiliti in TIME. http://ow.ly/onSxR

POTUS on Syria - “I have no interest in any kind of open-ended conflict in Syria, but we do have to make sure that when countries break international norms on weapons like chemical weapons that could threaten us, that they are held accountable...We cannot see a breach of the nonproliferation norm that allows, potentially, chemical weapons to fall into the hands of all kinds of folks,” said the president in an interview with “PBS Newshour”. Olivier Knox at Yahoo! News has the full report and video. http://ow.ly/onWFY

From the experts - “Statement on Chemical Weapons Use in Syria and the International Response” from Daryl Kimball at the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1ckyJNO

Meanwhile, in North Korea - “North Korea has been carrying out construction work at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, including near a mothballed reactor that experts say could produce plutonium for bombs, a U.N. nuclear agency report showed on Wednesday.” Reuters reports on the latest from the IAEA. http://reut.rs/157KKRz

Tweet - @Diplomat_APAC: What South Korea Can Learn from South Asia's Nuclear Experience bit.ly/1dpvqIo

The Dutch bombs - The Netherlands, which stores 10-20 U.S. nuclear weapons at Vokel Air base, recently got in a dispute with the U.S. about liability for environmental remediation in case of nuclear accident. “The disagreement at one point got so heated that a Dutch officials threatened that his government might have to consider reviewing US Air Force nuclear overflight rights of the Netherlands if the United States continue to block the issue,” reports Hans Kristensen.

--The Netherlands was the only of the five NATO allies who store U.S. nuclear weapons to raise the issue of environmental remediation. Part of the U.S. motivation for blocking the issue was a worry that other allies might demand such liability changes - particularly at a time when the U.S. moves to spend $10 billion to replace its nuclear bombs in Europe with new ones that have new military capabilities. Full story from the Federation of American Scientists. http://bit.ly/14bkYMa

Under the radar - “Cruise Missile Proliferation” by Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1flVRev

Tweet - @UN: Thursday is the International Day against Nuclear Tests. Embrace a world free of #nuclear weapons. bit.ly/bf0F40

Events:

--”Guarding Against a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Proliferation Risks and Diplomatic Options.” Discussion with Amb. Thomas Pickering, David Albright, George Perkovich and Daryl Kimball. September 5th from 9:00am-10:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details and RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1dweZbK

--”The Path to Zero: The role of the United Nations in Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.” September 5, 10:00 AM. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/

--President Obama attends the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg. September 5-6.