Iran Talks Update: Positive Atmosphere, Next Talks Scheduled

On the radar: Nuclear negotiations; Nonproliferation and nuclear cooperation; Buffett on political WMD; Humanitarian dimensions; Fissile controls in the Middle East; Weaponeers look at space rocks; and Intercontinental ballistic humanitarian aid.

October 16, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Geneva: Day 2 - “Negotiations on ending a standoff over Iran’s nuclear program entered a pivotal second day Wednesday as Western diplomats pressed Tehran for details about a proposal that it says could alleviate fears of a future nuclear arms race in the Middle East,” reports Joby Warrick for The Washington Post.

--”Although details about Iran’s Geneva proposals were sparse, U.S. arms-control experts welcomed the prospect of a diplomatic thaw,” writes Warrick. “It would appear that the two sides are within striking distance of a framework agreement before the end of the year,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. http://wapo.st/16N8eQM

Next steps - “Nuclear negotiators from Iran and six world powers will hold follow on talks here in Geneva Nov. 7-8, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced here Wednesday at the conclusion of two days of what she called very intensive, substantive and forward-looking nuclear talks,” reports Laura Rozen of Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/1gkuRSy

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123 agreements - “Using U.S. bilateral agreements as a lever to limit the spread of [uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing technologies (ENR)] may sound like a good idea. But for a number of reasons, insisting that all countries legally forgo ENR for all future U.S. peaceful nuclear cooperation agreements risks undermining U.S. nonproliferation interests,” write Mark Hibbs and Fred McGoldrick of the Carnegie Endowment.

--The authors argue that the U.S. should consider ENR restrictions in nuclear cooperation agreements on a case-by-case basis, and that a blanket ban on such trade on the basis that it could be ineffective, perceived as exploiting the NPT, and is unlikely to be followed by other nuclear supplies. Full analysis here. http://ceip.org/197jqr1

Humanitarian dimensions - “Viewing Nuclear Weapons through a Humanitarian Lens” John Borrie and Tim Caughley, Eds., from UNIDIR. October, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/H3SzCd

STRATCOM promotion - On Saturday, the Senate confirmed Air Force Lt. General James Kowalski to assume a new role as deputy commander of US STRATCOM, replacing the previous deputy who was relieved following a gambling scandal. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/17K8kUW

Quote - “There are certain weapons that are just improper to use against humanity. And to use [the debt ceiling] against the American public, it is a political weapon of mass destruction, and both sides should say we’re not going to touch it, just like with poison gas, just like with nuclear weapons. It’s too powerful,” said Warren Buffett about the ongoing fiscal crisis. Tal Kopan of Politico has the story. http://politi.co/1gknKJU

Fissile materials - “Fissile Material Controls in the Middle East: Steps Toward a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and All Other Weapons of Mass Destruction.” Report from Frank von Hippel, Seyed Mousavian, Emad Kiyaei, Harold Feiveson and Zia Mian for IPFM. October, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/17K6pzM

Missile defense spending - “MDA May Seek Multiyear Procurement Authority For $3 Billion Interceptor Deal” reports Inside Defense. (paywall) http://bit.ly/16aoAEt

Speed reads:

--”Four Possible Deals With Iran” by Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1gkrzic

--”How West Sees Iran's Nuclear Program” by Bruce Stokes of CNN. http://bit.ly/GR9hVD

--”Democrats, AIPAC Jeopardize Iran Talks” by Yochi Dreazen and John Hudson of Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1733jgN

Event:

--”Securing The Nuclear Enterprise: What Nuclear Crises Teach Us About Future Security Threats” Discussion with Matt Stokes, Henry Sokolski and Brian Finlay at Stimson. Tues. Oct. 22 from 11:30-1:00. Details here. http://bit.ly/17dNvBY

Dessert:

Nuking space rocks - “A New Use for Nuclear Weapons: Hunting Rogue Asteroids. A persistent campaign by weapons designers to develop a nuclear defense against extraterrestrial rocks slowly wins government support.” Report from Douglas Birch at The Center for Public Integrity. http://bit.ly/15I8Oyj

Delivery in 30-minutes or less - An ICBM can plunk a bomb on most global targets in about an hour or so. What if, instead of delivering bombs, Peacekeeper ballistic missiles delivered aid to communities recovering from a disaster?

--One researcher talks with Space.com about that idea, while generally avoiding the messy details about feasibility, cost per pound of aid delivered, whether a disaster aid moving several times the speed of sound would be well received by locals and how anxious Russia might get when the US starts flinging more missiles around the globe. http://bit.ly/GR5nft

--Tweets @armscontrolwonk: How is this even a remotely good idea?