Major Setbacks Seen at Iranian Nuclear Reactor

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Monday February 28, 2010.

Iran Reports a Major Setback at a Nuclear Power Plant - William Broad and david Sanger of The New York Times [link]

• Iran told atomic inspectors this week that it had run into a serious problem at a newly completed nuclear reactor that was supposed to start feeding electricity into the national grid this month, raising questions about whether the trouble was sabotage, a startup problem, or possibly the beginning of the project’s end.
• In a report on Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran told inspectors on Wednesday that it was planning to unload nuclear fuel from its Bushehr reactor — the sign of a major upset.
• Iran gave no reason for the unexpected fuel unloading, but it has previously admitted that the Stuxnet computer worm infected the Bushehr reactor. On Friday, computer experts debated whether Stuxnet was responsible for the surprising development.
• “This could represent a substantial setback to their program,” David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “It raises questions of whether Iran can operate a modern nuclear reactor safely,” he added. “The stakes are very high. You can have a Chernobyl-style accident with this kind of reactor, and there’s lots of questions about that possibility in the region.”
• The IAEA report on Friday referred directly to concerns that Iran was working on “the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.” But it noted that all of the IAEA's requests for information had been ignored for years.

House Cuts Key Program to Keep Nuclear Weapons from Terrorists - Lt. Gen. Robert Gard in The Hill [link]

• The House of Representatives has made brutal cuts to key national security programs designed to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists.
• The Continuing Resolution would cut more than $600 million from President Obama’s request of $2.7 billion to secure and safeguard nuclear weapons and materials across the globe. The programs funded by this request are part of a high priority effort to keep nuclear weapons and materials away from terrorists, and have long enjoyed bipartisan support.
• The Global Threat Reduction Initiative is the program that is likely to be the most affected by the House budget cuts. This program works to secure nuclear materials around the world and prevent these materials from being stolen by terrorists.
• To date, the Global Threat Reduction Initiative has made considerable progress in reducing and removing highly enriched uranium, a building block to produce nuclear weapons, from Russia, Serbia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Mexico.
• Dealing with the federal budget deficit is a national priority and critical to the future of the United States, but the cost of reducing the deficit should not leave American cities vulnerable to nuclear devastation. The House actions must be undone.
• Fortunately, the Senate has an opportunity to reverse these reductions and protect vital national security programs when it considers the same bill in March. The Senate should shelter the non-proliferation budget from the House’s draconian cuts.

A Grand Bargain with Iran - Shahram Chubin in Foreign Affairs [link]

• Despite the slowdown of the Iranian nuclear program, the United States is no closer to avoiding the fateful and unattractive choice between bombing Iran and an Iranian bomb.
• The aim of U.S. diplomacy should be to reconcile Iran's nuclear ambitions with international concerns about proliferation and address the broader issues raised by Iran's regional behavior.
• Current U.S. policy is based on three assumptions: that sanctions will lead to a reversal of Iran's policy on uranium enrichment, that the cessation of enrichment must be a precondition for other negotiations, and that small confidence-building steps...will buy time and lead to eventual movement in other areas. None of these assumptions is sustainable.
• A grand bargain would be consistent with Iran's priorities in most international negotiations.
• Attempting such a difficult exercise requires accepting the prospect of some enrichment in Iran, which would mean that U.S. hard-liners would have to accept a deal. Meanwhile, U.S. allies, particularly Israel, would have to be reassured by the terms of any deal that it would not lead to clandestine enrichment. This will require leadership of a high order.
• This would put an end to the narrative of a vengeful, arrogant U.S.-led coalition dictating terms as a substitute for forcing a regime change and put responsibility for the prolonged crisis and its consequences where it belongs, thereby signaling to the Iranian people that the nuclear dispute is about not Iran's rights but the regime's insistence on keeping control at home by ensuring continual crises abroad.

Iran Increases Uranium Stockpile, UN Agency Says - Julia Damianova in the L.A. Times [link]

• Iran increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in recent months despite intense international pressure and claims that a computer virus had slowed its program, a report Friday by the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency indicates.
• According to the report prepared for the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran had nearly 8,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 3.5%, a quantity sufficient for about three nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%.

Experts Caution Against U.S. Nuclear Security Budget Cuts - Global Security Newswire [link]

• Experts are warning about the potentially dangerous impact of a House of Representatives measure that would cut hundreds of millions of dollars from U.S. nuclear nonproliferation activities
• The Republican-majority congressional chamber last week approved a continuing resolution that would cut about $60 billion proposed to be spent in this fiscal year under a never-approved budget plan. Reductions reportedly include $1.1 billion from the National Nuclear Security Administration, with $647 million of that coming from the agency's nonproliferation side.
• "These cuts make it easier and more likely that a terrorist is going to acquire a nuclear weapon, and attack the United States," according to Jim Walsh of Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
• The House proposal would slice $97 million from efforts to relocate highly enriched uranium from vulnerable facilities across the globe…The United States has already been unable to follow through on offers by Belarus and Ukraine to give up their stocks of weapon-usable uranium.
• "So, nuclear material that countries are willing to give up is going to sit in those countries because Congress is essentially playing politics with national security," said Kenneth Luongo, president of the Partnership for Global Security.

A View from the Dark Side

Kim Jong II's Nuclear Resolve - Jack David and Melanie Kirkpatrick in The Wall Street Journal [link]

• In recent weeks North Korea has been seeking additional food aid from international donors, including the U.S. It cites a poor vegetable harvest last fall followed by an exceptionally severe winter. The United Nations World Food Program is currently evaluating the country's food supply.
• Washington has rejected the request for aid, citing North Korea's refusal to allow proper monitoring to ensure that the food is not diverted to the military or the elites, as usually happens.
• If Kim Jong Il were serious about feeding his starving people, he says, he could divert resources from the nuclear program to food. International aid would relieve pressure on him to do that.
• News reports suggest that North Korea is preparing for a third nuclear test. It's time to recognize that Mr. Kim is right and negotiating with North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons is a futile exercise.