Media Failures on the Iran Debate

On the radar: Loose talk and shallow analysis; Two new Iran reports; Seoul preview; Nuclear security pacts held up; RPC points on nuclear budget; Priorities and the new nuclear sub; Process, politics, and diplomacy; No progress on NATO-Russia BMD deal; WashPost on North Korea; and Nuking space rocks.

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March 13, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Top Ten - Stephen Walt lists the “Top Ten Media Failures in the Iran War Debate” at Foreign Policy. 1) Mainstreaming the war; 2) Loose talk about Iran’s “nuclear [weapons] program”; 3) Obsessing about Ahmadinejad; 4) Ignoring Iranian weakness; 5) Failing to ask why Iran might want a bomb...

--6) Failing to consider why Iran might NOT want a bomb; 7) Exaggerating Israel’s Capabilities; 8) Letting spinmeisters play fast and loose with facts; 9) What about the human beings; and 10) Could diplomacy work? http://owl.li/9CSZZ

Iran Reports - The Stimson Center launches two new reports, Holding Iran to Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Technology by Barry Blechman and Engaging Iran on Afghanistan by Ellen Laipson, this Thursday at 10am. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/9ByTs

Tweet - @FMWG: “10+ nations will pledge to eliminate #nuclear material for 1000s of bombs at #Seoul Summit - http://bit.ly/xNZmqp”

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Legislative quagmire - “The United States still has not enacted a law critical to ratifying what the Obama administration at the first summit called ‘the two key international treaties governing nuclear security,’” Global Security Newswire reports.

--What’s the holdup? “The administration is still wrangling with Congress over legal specifics for implementing the international agreements.” http://owl.li/9CSGm

RPC on nuclear budgets - The Senate Republican Policy Committee released a paper opposing President Obama’s budget request for nuclear weapons programs. RPC assertion: the budget request is inconsistent with past plans on nuclear modernization.

--RPC recommendation: President should [ask appropriators in Congress to] remedy the shortfall from the FY12 appropriation and up the FY13 request. http://owl.li/9CSXg

Quote - "We're going to have to reprioritize to some extent. We need to hold down the cost of [the new nuclear sub]. I hope that we don't need to slip the program any more than we already have. But we're going to have to make some tough priority judgments between it and other major investments," DOD Comptroller Robert Hale told reporters. h/t Nukes of Hazard. http://owl.li/9CSUU

Diplomacy takes time - “A diplomatic ‘solution’ that settles a standoff that has bedeviled Western leaders for the past decade is unlikely to come in a matter of weeks or months,” writes Tony Karon for Time.

--“The process will involve a series of small but significant steps that could demonstrate the value and viability of a diplomatic process and help us avoid an election-year stampede into war,” Karon concludes. http://owl.li/9CSLd

Quote - “I think it would be very difficult to achieve any success [on missile defense cooperation] at the summit,” Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister said. “As of today, there is no document for the leaders to approve.” From AP. http://owl.li/9CSQx

Q&A - Q: Slate asks “Could a missile strike on Iran cause an accidental nuclear detonation?”

--A: No. http://owl.li/9CSMN

Skeptics - “Maybe talks with North Korea will deter the new leader from misbehavior, such as more nuclear tests or military provocations of South Korea, if only for a while,” writes the Washington Post editorial board. “The trigger for Pyongyang to renege is already built in... If [sanctions aren’t lifted]— or if the United States insists on intrusive monitoring of the food aid — the nuclear inspectors will be booted back out.” http://owl.li/9CUrX

Book review - David Shorr reviews Trita Parsi’s new book ”A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran” in The Bulletin. “Parsi has given us an authoritative document on one of today's most urgent and nettlesome foreign policy challenges.” http://owl.li/9CT2l

[“Armageddon” quip here] - Scientists at Los Alamos modeled the effectiveness of using a nuclear weapon against an Earth-bound asteroid. They estimate that a 1 megaton weapon “would fully mitigate the hazard represented by the initial asteroid itself.” MSNBC has the story, including alternatives to nukes. http://owl.li/9CSEq