Mixed Messages on Iran

On the radar: Tightening nooses; Preparing talks; Assassinations going too far; Budget numbers and dates; Off ramps for Iran; the 20% solution; 123 goes case-by-case; Why not to attack Iran; Robert Kelley on the IAEA report; and Navy carrier movements

January 12, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Interpreting sanctions - The administration’s statements on the purpose of sanctions - "tighten the noose" around the Iranian government - may indicate a tilt towards regime change, Barbara Slavin writes.

--The official U.S. policy - a diplomatic solution - remains unchanged. But experts say that may not matter. “As long as the regime is convinced U.S. policy is at its core 'regime change' it will not be receptive to dealing and will be driven in the opposite direction,” Ambassador William Luers notes. http://owl.li/8r8rw

Preparing for talks - Beneath the rising tensions with Iran, The Obama administration and its European allies are preparing for a round of international nuclear talks with Iran to be hosted by Turkey in the next couple weeks, reports Laura Rozen.

--Before a meeting can be set, U.S. and EU officials have have noted that Iran needs to RSVP to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in a letter that “makes clear [Iran’s] intentions to engage seriously.” http://owl.li/8r8VZ

Assassinations going too far - When it comes to preventing Iran from going nuclear, how far is too far? The LA Times editorial board writes, “Economic sanctions don't appear to be doing much to slow Iran's nuclear progress, and that is worrisome. But slaughtering scientists on the streets of Tehran isn't the answer. It is as inefficient as it is morally bankrupt, because killing a handful of experts won't erase the country's institutional nuclear knowledge.” http://owl.li/8r8tq

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Budget release - Secretary Panetta is scheduled to release details of the FY 2013 budget on Jan. 26. The Pentagon’s topline budget number is expected to be $523.8 billion. http://owl.li/8r8vh

Avoiding escalation - “The West and Iran are playing a dangerous game” that could lead to a collision in the Gulf, Anne-Marie Slaughter writes. The solution: “It is time for third parties to step in and facilitate solutions that allow Iran to save face while significantly and credibly reducing its supply of enriched uranium.” http://owl.li/8r8oY

The 20% Solution - Iran’s developing capacity to produce 20-percent enriched uranium is alarming, but also provides and angle for engagement. One way to assure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program would be to suspend enrichment and, with the help of outside countries, turn existing uranium stocks into fuel rods for Iran’s research reactor, writes Olli Heinonen for Foreign Policy. This approach would help Iran meet its needs for industrial and medical radioisotopes and assuage international concern about Iran’s breakout capacity. http://owl.li/8r8xE

123 Agreements - The Obama administration is reported to have made a policy determination on whether, or in which cases, to include a “gold standard” no-enrichment or reprocessing pledge in its nuclear energy cooperation agreements. Administration officials are working to brief House and Senate foreign affairs committee leadership, reports Elaine Grossman for The National Journal. http://owl.li/8r8zZ

Bottom line in the headline - “Not Another Coup, Please.” Editorial in Pakistan’s The Express Tribune. http://owl.li/8r9b4

Why not to attack Iran - There’s one basic question that those calling for war with Iran have failed to answer: How does this end? Nothing short of a large-scale invasion for regime change or a long-term airstrike campaign would prevent Iran from simply restarting its program, write Elbridge Colby and Austin Long.

--”Stealthy air strikes and massive earth-penetrating bombs are only tools, not answers...It’s probably best not to start down a road that has no end in sight.” http://owl.li/8r8Eg

Revisiting the IAEA report - The November IAEA report on Iran focused almost entirely on Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons activities, and provided little evidence that the program has been restarted since then. And some of the sources for the post-2003 information may be questionable, writes Robert Kelley in Bloomberg.

--”The uncertainty must be resolved,” he concludes. “We should not again be held hostage to forgeries and the spinning of data to make the worst case. If Iran is developing nuclear weapons, let it be proved through the analysis of current, solid information -- not recycled, discredited data.” http://owl.li/8r8HF

Carrier movements - Tensions with Iran have risen after Iran called for the U.S. to keep its aircraft carrier groups out of the Persian Gulf. Coincidentally, three aircraft carrier groups are about to move through the Arabia Gulf near Iran thanks to Navy deployment schedules. Danger Room reports. http://owl.li/8r8JB