Modest Expectations for Baghdad Talks

On the radar: Officials and experts look for progress in Baghdad; NAS questions missile defense plans; Options for influencing China; Post-strike scenarios; Bipartisan support for nonpro budget; Israeli officials on Iran; and NUKEMAP goes viral.

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May 4, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

Good news and bad news - While Ayatollah Khamenei’s open involvement in the nuclear talks means Iranian negotiators’ final commitments won’t be protested back in Tehran, it also means negotiators may take a hard line in the talks, experts told CS Monitor’s Roshanak Taghavi.

--“There are indications Iran could be preparing its elite and the population for some sort of deal. But the Iranian side will also be looking for some of the sanctions to be rolled back, and that could be more difficult,” says RAND’s Alireza Nader. “There are a lot of steps to be taken, and the process could really face hurdles along each of those steps. Looking at the Baghdad negotiations, I don't think you should expect a 'final solution.'” http://owl.li/aHRvl

NAS on BMD - The National Academy of Sciences, in a letter to Congress, questioned spending billions on the European missile defense system, and recommends canceling specific programs that are "at best less than optimal for homeland defense." AP’s Desmond Butler has the story. http://owl.li/aHRxy

--The NAS letter to HASC leaders is here. http://owl.li/aHRzT

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China, Iran, and the U.S. - Despite the strong economic and political ties between Tehran and Beijing, potential tensions exist in the China-Iran partnership. Scott Harold and Alireza Nader of RAND examine the U.S. options to obtain China’s cooperation in addressing the Iranian nuclear program in a new report, “China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations.”

--“The U.S. ability to fundamentally reshape China's relationship with Iran is fairly limited, but that the United States should continue to forestall an Iranian nuclear weapons capability and pressure China to reduce ties to Iran,” the authors conclude. http://owl.li/aHRwD

Tweet - @Gottemoeller : P5 Statement Delivered at NPT PrepCom in Vienna by Amb. Burk, U.S. Special Rep. for #NuclearNonproliferation: http://1.usa.gov/P5NPTRevCon1

Why Logic May Prevail on Iran - A military strike on Iran may yet be avoided, for the simple reason that the consequences would be disastrous, write Michael Moran in Slate.

--Moran examines the likelihood of various post-strike scenario. In the best case (and least likely) scenario, the Iranian program would be delayed several years and retaliation averted. In the most likely scenario, a sustained conflict between Iran and the US and regional allies could cause regional unrest, terrorist retaliation against Israel and the US, oil flow disruption and an economic recession. http://owl.li/aHRDK

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: US-India deal hasnt "yielded anything except a disagreement over who would be liable in...event of a nuclear accident." http://owl.li/aHRN0

Nonpro funding - “Bipartisanship is alive and well on Capitol Hill - at least when it comes to robust support for nuclear material security,” writes Kingston Reif in an analysis of the FY13 draft appropriations bills. Both the House and the Senate plussed up the Global Threat Reduction Initiative ($17 million and $37 million above the request, respectively) and the Senate also added $57 million to the International Nuclear Materials Protection request. http://owl.li/aHRC8

Event - “What kind of defense budget would the American public make?” The Program for Public Consultation, the Stimson Center, and the Center for Public Integrity unveil the results of their defense budget poll next Thursday the 10th, 10am at Stimson. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/aHRFa

Israel’s sub #4 - Israel recieved another German Dolphin class submarine, bringing its total to four. Global Security Newswire reports. http://owl.li/aHRGj

Quote - Former Israeli Defense Forces intelligence head Shlomo Gazit is the latest Israeli national security leader to caution against attacking Iran. In a Jerusalem Post interview Gazit agreed with former Israeli internal security chief Yuval Diskin’s statement that “attacking Iran will encourage them to develop a bomb all the faster.” Eli Clifton at Think Progress has the story. http://owl.li/aHRI5

Job opening - The Center for Nonproliferation Studies is looking for a managing editor for The Nonproliferation Review. Details here. http://owl.li/aHRJF

Fun and scary - NUKEMAP, a game that allows users to see the effects of dropping nuclear bombs of various sizes on a selected city, has logged almost 2 billion unique visitors in 2 months. NUKEMAP creator Alex Wellerstein of the American Institute of Physics, has some takeaways from the game’s popularity.

-- Many users found the game both fun and scary, “a coupling [that] is perhaps a novel way to approach the imparting of otherwise dry data about nuclear weapons.” http://owl.li/aHRLw