Moving Redlines, Urging Diplomacy

On the radar: Senators call for moving the red line; Diplomacy; Round 2 of the nuke budget debate; the Key to talking with Iran; Israel and a WMD-free zone; Don’t bet on a strike in 2012; Honoring the Ladies of Nuclear Policy; and Trita Parsi talks Iran with Jon Stewart.

March 9, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

”Nuclear capability” as a red line - “All of the destabilizing consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran will ensue as soon as Iranians have the components necessary for a weapon—and by then, it will be too late to stop them,” write Sens. Casey, Graham, and Leiberman, sponsors of a resolution ruling out a strategy of containment for Iran, in The Wall Street Journal.

--Counterpoint with <140 characters: @Cirincione: “Iran is nuclear capable. So are 44 other nations. The trick is getting them not to build weapons. Most have not.” http://owl.li/9yIKP

Call for diplomacy - Another group of Senators led by Sen. Barbara Lee (D-CA) has just introduced a resolution calling for "direct, bilateral negotiations with the government of Iran without preconditions in order to reduce tensions, prevent war, prevent nuclear proliferation...and seek resolutions to issues that concern the United States." http://owl.li/9yHPH

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Nuclear budget debate continues - Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) pushed back against critics of efforts to trim the nuclear budget in a letter to HASC Strategic Forces Subcommittee chair Rep. Mike Turner.

--Ending unnecessary programs like the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Replacement Nuclear Facility (delayed for five years in the 2013 budget request) and the Uranium Processing Facility would save taxpayers $12.5 billion, Rep. Markey notes.

--”With current budget constraints, we should not spend billions in taxpayer dollars to build new nuclear bomb facilities at the same time we are reducing our nuclear stockpile,” reads the press release, available here with the full letter. http://owl.li/9yHNz

Serious diplomacy - Diplomacy, like the use of force, is an essential tool of statecraft. Negotiations can and should test Iran’s nuclear intentions.” IISS executive director Andrew Parasiliti writes in Al-Monitor

--”The key to getting traction with this latest round of diplomacy,” Parsiliti argues, could be accepting the Iranian offer to halt domestic enrichment in exchange enriched uranium for medical purposes from the West. http://owl.li/9yHLZ

Should Israel Accept a Nuclear Ban? - Experts discuss Israel’s incentives for participating in the upcoming conference on a WMD-free Middle East in The New York Times Room for Debate.

--CFR’s Micah Zenko argues that “Israel has pigeonholed itself as an international pariah” and it’s time “to come out of the nuclear closet” by providing transparency about its nuclear capabilities and participating in international forums, including the WMD-free Middle East talks. http://owl.li/9yHIM

Quote - “The regime in Iran is a very rational one," former Mossad chief Meir Dagan said in a CBS interview, adding “An attack on Iran before you are exploring all other approaches is not the right way." http://owl.li/9yHGi

War forecast - With Iran and the West returning to negotiations, and the administration’s deft handling of meeting with Israeli leaders this week, chances of war with Iran in 2012 have dropped, writes The Atlantic’s Robert Wright.

--2013 is a different story, Wright adds. “Even as Obama refused to move the red line from "nuclear weapon" to "nuclear weapons capability," he added an extra coat of paint to the red line, stating more emphatically than ever that he wouldn't let Iran cross it.” http://owl.li/9yHEe

Weighing the consequences - “The pressure is building on Iran, but there are no serious discussions of negotiated outcomes,” writes CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. “The question right now is...whether the U.S. and Israel can carefully evaluate the consequences of a preventive war - inside Iran and beyond - and weigh them against its limited and temporary benefits.” http://owl.li/9yHAi

Women in Nuclear Policy - “Nuclear policy was historically dominated by men...But no more,” writes Megan Murphy in a Ploughshares Fund blog “pay[ing] tribute to the many women making a powerful impact on nuclear weapons policy.” http://owl.li/9yHyn

Nuclear priorities - If current law stands and across-the-board budget cuts kick in at the beginning of 2013, the National Nuclear Security Administration will prioritize warhead life extension programs, NNSA administrator Thomas D’Agostino testified yesterday. Global Security Newswire reports. http://owl.li/9yHwv

Take a chance on diplomacy - The recurring problem in U.S. Iran relations is that “whenever we have an opportunity [for diplomacy with Iran], we’re so skeptical to take it...it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Watch National Iranian American Council President Trita Parsi on The Daily Show. http://owl.li/9yJZe