New START: The First Test for Obama & the Post-Election Senate

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today, Monday, November 8, 2010.

Nuclear Arms Treaty Will Test Obama, GOP - Joseph Cirincione in The Philadelphia Inquirer [link]

• The first test for [President Obama and Republicans in Congress] will come during the post-election Senate session later this month. The Senate has yet to approve of the New START treaty…passage of the treaty would seem like a no-brainer.
• It's up to Obama to force the issue in this early test of how he intends to govern in the wake of GOP gains….His top officials must speak out about the security consequences of not approving the treaty. And Obama must make it clear that there would be political consequences, too.
• Even for new members of Congress elected with the support of the tea-party movement, it will be tough to appear patriotic while dismissing the military's unanimous advice. Rejecting New START would make them vulnerable to charges that they are playing politics with national security, giving Democrats a foreign-policy issue at a time when Republicans want to focus on domestic matters.
• As Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morell said last week, "This treaty is absolutely critical to the effectiveness of our nuclear arsenal, our knowledge of Russian nuclear capabilities, and U.S. national security overall. There's no sense in putting off what we need now to the next Congress."
• With New START, Washington has a chance to show the American people that the two parties can act together in the best interests of the nation. To make that happen, Obama must demonstrate bipartisanship and strength; one without the other will not work. And Republicans, for their part, have to demonstrate their interest in responsible governance.

U.S. Vote Could Derail Russia Ties - Peter Baker of The New York Times [link]

• The Republican election victory last week was fueled by opposition to President Obama’s economic and domestic initiatives, but it could undo his central foreign policy achievement, his new partnership with Russia, and embolden anti-American hawks in Moscow.
• Mr. Obama needs Congress to sign off on three major policy changes: an arms control treaty to reduce nuclear arsenals and resume inspections; a civilian nuclear agreement to permit greater cooperation; and a repeal of cold war-era trade restrictions so Russia can join the World Trade Organization.
• Persuading Congress to approve any of those was already daunting when Democrats had control of both houses, but with Republicans taking over the House and bolstering forces in the Senate, all of these initiatives appear in jeopardy.
• If Mr. Obama cannot deliver on his promises, American officials and foreign policy specialists fear it will rupture the so-called reset policy and validate Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin and other hard-liners who have been skeptical of the rapprochement.
• Mr. Obama has decided to make a concerted push to persuade the departing Senate to approve the New START treaty in a lame-duck session this month. The president brought it up last week, along with extending middle-class tax cuts, as his biggest priorities for the session.

Two Plead Guilty over Nuclear Smuggling in Georgia - AFP [link]

• Two Armenian men have pleaded guilty during a secret trial to smuggling highly enriched uranium into Georgia and trying to sell it to an undercover agent, the Georgian interior ministry said on Monday.
• Sumbat Tonoian and Hrant Ohanian were arrested in a sting operation in March after they smuggled the 18 grams (0.6 ounces) of uranium from Armenia into Georgia
• The reports said tests had confirmed that though a small amount, the uranium was nearly 90 percent enriched and usable in a nuclear warhead.
• Media reports said the two men had smuggled the uranium on a train from the Armenian capital Yerevan to Tbilisi in a cigarette box lined with lead to fool radiation sensors at the border.
• The case has highlighted concerns that unsecured nuclear materials around the former Soviet Union could be smuggled through the region's porous borders and used to build nuclear weapons. It was the third case of smuggling of nuclear materials to be uncovered in Georgia, an ex-Soviet republic on Russia's southern border closely allied to the United States.

Iran Suggests New Nuclear Talks be Held in Turkey - Nasser Karimi for The Associated Press [link]

• Iran has proposed that a new round of international talks on its nuclear program be held in Turkey, an ally that also has close ties to the West and has sought to mediate in the standoff.
• Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Sunday that Iran has informed its "friends in Turkey" that it is willing to hold the talks there. He told a news conference that Iran is "hopeful a time and agenda will be agreed upon soon."
• Tehran has said it would be ready to renew talks with the six nations - the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - some time after Nov. 10. Negotiations foundered a year ago.
• In the last round of negotiations, Iran balked at a U.N.-drafted proposal to ship most of its stockpile of enriched uranium abroad for further processing and to be returned in the form of fuel rods…Iran rejected that deal but accepted a similar proposal from allies Brazil and Turkey. The other six nations, however, said that plan fell short of their demands.

New Fuel Deal with Iran - Ivanka Barzashka in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists [link]

• Since October 2009, the deal to refuel Tehran's medical isotope reactor proposed by the Vienna Group -- France, Russia, the United States, and the IAEA -- has been the touchstone of engagement.
• Ultimately, a successful fuel deal is a necessary condition for further engagement, and the Vienna Group will try once again to work with Iran to reach consensus on the terms for exchanging Tehran's low-enriched uranium (LEU) for ready-made fuel elements for its research reactor.
• A successful agreement hinges on realistic expectations from both sides. Some of the goals set in October 2009 -- like undermining Iran's rationale for domestic enrichment -- are still valid now, but others -- like leaving Tehran with less than a weapon's worth of material -- are today beyond the reach of this deal under the best of circumstances.
• New circumstances shouldn't mean moving goalposts. There are common misconceptions about the fuel deal, and it is important to understand what it can, cannot, and ought to achieve.
• With sanctions or military strikes unlikely in the short term, Washington must make engagement work. Right now, a successful fuel deal is the door to a long-term diplomatic solution.