New START: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

On the radar: New START turns 1; Sanction bill eyes Ajad, Supreme Leader; IAEA to visit Iran later this month; Wilkening on Russia’s EPAA concerns; New START team visits Brookings; Haass on Iran; the Preconditions game; and That time we almost nuked Spain.

February 2, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

New START a year on - New START entered into force one year ago on Sunday. “The entry into force and successful implementation of New START are achievements to be celebrated, but it's vital that the momentum they've generated isn't squandered.” Kingston Reif in The Bulletin examines the progress under the treaty and the opportunities and challenges ahead.

--Progress: the treaty continues to benefit US national security by providing precise information on Russia’s arsenal, while providing a framework for the US and Russia to reduce their excessive nuclear arsenals.

--Challenges: Russia is in no hurry to make progress on a followup treaty, one that promises to be much more time-consuming and complex to negotiate. Opportunities: the U.S. and Russia could make reciprocal actions to pave the way for formal negotiations. Also, given Russia’s reduced arsenal, the Pentagon could reduce its own deterrence requirements, thereby trimming excessive nuclear spending. http://owl.li/8PINT

Another round of sanctions - “On Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will officially start work on a new sanctions bill against Iran, and senators are set to add even more sanctions to the bill as it goes through the legislative process -- including measures that directly target President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.” Josh Rogin reports. http://owl.li/8PJa0

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IAEA’s next trip to Tehran - After a “good trip” to Iran in which the IAEA team "explained its concerns and identified its priorities,” inspectors will return for a two-day visit in late February. From AP. http://owl.li/8PIZu

Does missile defense in Europe threaten Russia? - Dean Wilkening poses that question and offers technical analysis in Survival.

--”Moscow’s concern with phases III and IV of the European Phased Adaptive Approach BMD architecture...lacks technical merit, unless the SM-3 Block IIB interceptor has a maximum speed greater than approximately 5.0km/sec.” (paywall) http://owl.li/8PIQm

Tweet - @DangerRoom: “Reagan's Ghost Loves This Stupid Radar Video.” http://owl.li/8PJt8

Event - New START at One Year: Implementation and Looking to the Future. Panel 1: Rose Gottemoeller, Ted Warner and Michael Elliott discuss how the treaty has worked thus far and next steps the U.S. government is considering. Panel 2: Steven Pifer, Jan Lodal and James Acton talk about future reductions and factors that could affect the process.

--Brookings Institution. Feb. 10 from 1:00-3:30pm. RSVP and details here. http://owl.li/8PKli

Haass on Iran - “We've reached a point where neither option--either acquiescing to an Iranian nuclear weapons capability or launching a military strike--is very good. This is what pushes me in the direction of seeing whether some combination of enhanced sanctions coupled with a diplomatic initiative can work,” said Richard Haass in an interview with CFR. http://owl.li/8PITw

List of demands - North Korea offered a non-starter list of demands for South Korea before relations on the peninsula can improve - including cancelling military exercises and apologizing for President lee Myung-bak not expressing official condolences on the death of Kim Jong-il. “It’s regrettable that North Korea makes these absurd demands as part of its propaganda,” said an official in the South’s Unification Ministry. http://owl.li/8PIWC

The preconditions game - Preconditions, like insisting Iran suspend all uranium enrichment, are crippling negotiations, Paul Pillar writes in The National Interest. “The Western powers would be well-advised to drop anything that functions as a precondition to negotiations, whether it is labeled as such or not, and to start talking substance in detail with the Iranians.” http://owl.li/8PJcg

Two nuclear bombs, one slightly dented - Boing Boing asked its readers for their favorite museum exhibits. One sent back photos of an exhibit in Albuquerque featuring the two Mk28 nuclear bombs that survived a B-52 accident over Palomares Spain in 1966. The other two bombs’ conventional explosives detonated, scattering plutonium and other debris over 650 acres of the surrounding area. http://owl.li/8PJ6I