New Study: Iranian ICBM "Over a Decade Away"

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today, Tuesday, May 11, 2010:

Iran Over Decade Away From Anti-U.S. Missile: Study - Reuters [link]

• Iran is unlikely to be able to make a missile capable of hitting the U.S. east coast for more than a decade, according to a study by a London-based thinktank released on Monday.
• The report by International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said Iran's missile development program appeared connected to its push to expand its nuclear capabilities, "with the aim of giving Iran the capability to deliver nuclear warheads beyond its borders."
• "Logic and the history of Iran's revolutionary missile and space launcher development efforts suggest Tehran would develop and field an intermediate range missile before embarking on a program to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the American East coast, 9,000 km away," it said.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Which Way Forward? - Remarks by Hans Kristensen at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference [link]

• Although some officials cling to Cold War arguments for maintaining U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, the reality is that it is entirely in line with post-Cold War NATO policy and actions to reduce, curtail, and phase out the nuclear mission. It’s not going the other way. So NATO’s focus should not be whether to withdraw the weapons but how.
• It is important to understand that the Obama administration sees its security commitments as much more – and increasingly other – than forward deployment of nuclear bombs in Europe. In fact, the forward deployment is the least relevant today, and many U.S. officials privately make no attempt to conceal that they would like to withdraw the weapons and for NATO to move out of the Cold War.
• Fortunately, none of this prevents a unilateral withdrawal of the remaining U.S. weapons from Europe. Indeed, it seems that the way forward is perhaps a two-step process beginning with ending the nuclear sharing mission followed by complete withdrawal a little later.
• Whatever the schedule is, the good news is that reducing the deployment in Europe is both consistent with NATO history and security interests.
  
  

Nuclear Threats: Rhetoric and Reality - Samuel Black for the Stimson Center [link]

• President Barack Obama made the claim at the recent Nuclear Security Summit that “two decades after the end of the Cold War, we face a cruel irony of history—the risk of a nuclear confrontation between nations has gone down, but the risk of nuclear attack has gone up.”
• Unfortunately, this statement is hard to square with reality. India and Pakistan alone made more nuclear threats between 1991 and 2010 then all the nuclear-armed countries combined in the twenty years prior. By this measure, the risk of a nuclear confrontation between nations has actually risen.
• Ironically, this should bode well for the review conference of the NPT, the lynchpin of global efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. Why? Neither India nor Pakistan is a member of the treaty. And if countries outside the nuclear mainstream are more prone to nuclear threat-making, this reinforces the security benefits of remaining in the mainstream.
• The U.S. policy not only stands in contrast to the conduct of countries outside the NPT, such as India and Pakistan, but also sends a message to countries resisting their nonproliferation obligations, such as Iran.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Talks Symbolize Hope - UN Under-Secretary General for Communications and Public Information, Kiyotaka Akasaka in the Huffington Post [link]

• Once you step through the thicket of diplomatic jargon, the life and death matters on the agenda of the month-long [NPT Review Conference] cannot help but strike you, well, as "fraught with symbolism."
• If there was one thing that I found particularly hopeful it was the involvement by those whose vital role is sometimes not fully recognized, the so-called civil society -- NGOs, leaders of towns and cities from around the world, community activists, prominent cultural figures.
• There was Michael Douglas, for instance, who spoke movingly at the screening of a documentary, Countdown to Zero, and the opening of an exhibition, "Putting an End to Nuclear Explosion."
• As participants of the NPT review conference toil behind closed doors to iron out their differences, they should try to keep in their sights a date only two months away from the scheduled conclusion of their forum.  August 6 will mark another anniversary of the day when the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima.
• "Sixty five years later, the world still lives under the nuclear shadow, " Mr. Ban Ki-moon reminded the delegates. In a first for a UN Secretary-General, he intends to be there this year to call for a world free of nuclear weapons. And as I stand there with him, I will not be afraid to say that it's a moment fraught with symbolism. 

A View from the Spanish Side

EE UU y el Gran Pacto Contra la Proliferación - Joe Cirincione and Alexandra Bell in Politica Exterior [link]

• El régimen de no proliferación nuclear está en peligro. Es un sistema fuerte y vibrante de tratados y acuerdos de seguridad entrelazados que ha soportado muchos golpes en los últimos 40 años.
• Pero la amenaza de nuevas naciones con armas nucleares, el lento ritmo de reducción de los arsenales nucleares y la aparición de grupos terroristas que aspiran a tener armas nucleares están haciendo que se tambalee la confianza en el régimen.
• Estados Unidos es el único país con la capacidad de convencer tanto a los miembros del Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear (TNP) y a las naciones que permanecen fuera de este acuerdo para reforzar las barreras contra la proliferación y reducir los arsenales. Sin el liderazgo de EE UU, el mundo podría pasar de los nueve Estados que actualmente disponen de armas nucleares a 19 o 20.
• Obama aspira a luchar contra este fatalismo con pasos concretos para forjar un nuevo consenso mundial de desarme y no proliferación. Cada medida que ha tomado desde que asumió la presidencia indica que ésta es una de sus prioridades.