North and South Korea Meet to Ease Military Tensions

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Tuesday February 8, 2011

Koreas Hold First Talks Since Shelling of Island - Mark McDonald in The New York Times [link]

• North and South Korea held discussions on Tuesday, their first since an artillery exchange in November that killed four South Koreans and brought the countries to the brink of war.
• The talks, at the border village of Panmunjom, started with a morning session that lasted less than an hour, typical of many of the perfunctory and often unproductive military meetings between the Koreas. But an afternoon session stretched well into the evening, and both sides agreed to meet again on Wednesday, at the request of the North.
• Military tensions following the Yeonpyeong episode in November have eased but diplomatic tensions have not. North Korea has called repeatedly for a variety of new talks and exchanges, including requests for new deliveries of food aid and fertilizer. Except for the recent restoration of a cross-border hot line, however, the South has not blinked.
• But with the shelling of Yeonpyeong the usual North Korean push seems to have finally resulted in a South Korean shove: The South has cut off all aid, toughened its military rules of engagement and bolstered its military installations on Yeonpyeong and other islands off the North Korean coast.
• The Lee government has insisted that the North demonstrate “sincere behavior” marked by “concrete actions” before it will agree to new shipments of aid, engage in substantive talks or consider a resumption of the six-party talks on North Korean denuclearization.

Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire - Henry Sokolski in The New Republic [link]

• The United States has had formal civilian nuclear cooperation ties with Egypt since 1981, when the country ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Before that, Cairo made several haphazard attempts to get the bomb.
• Egypt has the technological capability to separate weapons-usable plutonium from spent reactor fuel, and it operates a research reactor large enough to make a bomb’s worth of plutonium each year. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest political party clamoring for a say in Cairo’s future, is on record demanding that Egypt develop nuclear weapons to balance those of Israel.
• We can only hope that most Egyptians ignore this group. If, however, Egypt goes radical or remains politically unstable, the country’s nuclearization would be a major danger.
• Likewise, there is a proliferation threat from Saudi Arabia, a country that has more than hinted that it will get its own bomb if and when Iran does.
• At almost exactly the same time Egyptian protestors were filing into Tahrir Square on January 25, a highly respected arms control news service reported that the U.S. government was negotiating nuclear deals with Jordan and Saudi Arabia which would not include the “gold standard” safeguards that the Obama administration has demanded from other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to ensure that nuclear cooperation is less likely to enable nuclear proliferation.
• But it would be foolish for anyone who is concerned about a Middle Eastern nuclear domino effect, whether a Republican or Democrat, to let these agreements go forward without adequate safeguards. And the Obama administration, which has made such a show of its commitment to ending the spread of nuclear weapons, has a lot of explaining to do.

What Do We Know About Egypt's Arsenal? - Robert Windrem for “Open Channel” on MSNBC [link]

• NBC News has obtained more than a dozen documents from the United States, Russia and Israel that shed some light on several Egyptian weapons of mass destruction programs, including its nuclear potential and details of a joint North Korean-Egyptian missile development agreement.
• Among other things, it said Egypt had:
  • Built a research reactor at Inshas, north of Cairo, built with help from Argentina.
  • Contracted with Russia to supply a MGD-20 cyclotron accelerator, which would be helpful in exploring uranium enrichment technologies.
  • Begun construction of a facility at its Inshas research center that “in its design features and engineering protection could in the future be used to obtain weapons-grade plutonium from the uranium irradiated in the research reactors."
• The Egyptians are also interested in chemical weapons. Specifically, the FIS document notes: "Techniques of the production of nerve-paralyzing and blister-producing toxic agents have been assimilated."
• In response to a question during a congressional hearing on WMD proliferation on Feb. 24, 1993, CIA Director R. James Woolsey confirmed that Egypt is counted as a nation with biological weapons capability.
  

Russia Rebuffs US Call for New Arms Talks - Olga Rotenberg for AFP [link]

• Russia said Monday it was premature to set a date for a new round of nuclear disarmament talks on short-range missiles amid pressure from the United States for a quick reduction.
• President Barack Obama's administration is keen to launch negotiations over so-called tactical weapons that have remained outside the remit of previous nuclear disarmament agreements.
• We have taken note of the US president's position, which seeks to put a time frame on the start of tactical nuclear missile negotiations," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. "But we should put the emphasis on the word 'seeks'."
• Clinton said Saturday that she would use the occasion to discuss "further arms control issues" with Lavrov -- including the two countries' stocks of short- and medium-range missiles and non-deployed nuclear weapons.
• But Moscow appears intent on making any future discussions dependent on Washington's ability to compromise on its mooted missile defense shield for Europe.
• The Kremlin initially argued that the shield -- while designed to protect the West against potential strikes from countries such as North Korea and Iran -- could weaken Russia's own nuclear deterrence potential.

Electric Boat Gets Go-Ahead on New Ballistic Missile Sub - Jennifer McDermott in The Day [link]

• The Navy announced Thursday that the initial plans for the Navy's next generation of ballistic-missile submarines were endorsed by the Defense Acquisition Board and achieved what is known as "Milestone A," meaning the program can enter the technology development phase.
• Achieving Milestone A not only allows the development of technology to proceed but also formally recognizes the planning for the ballistic-missile submarine as an official Department of Defense program.
• The design and production of the ballistic-missile submarine will stretch into the second half of the 21st century. The Navy plans to buy 12 to replace the 14 current Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines that will reach the end of their service lives, with the lead ship purchased in 2019.
• The Defense Department's goal for the cost of each submarine, two through 12, is $4.95 billion each in 2010 dollars, according to the Navy. The lead ship is more expensive because design costs are factored in.
• "The Navy is committed to ensuring that an affordable replacement ballistic-missile submarine is designed, built and delivered on time, with the right capabilities to sustain the most survivable leg of our triad for many decades to come," Program Executive Officer for Submarines Rear Adm. David C. Johnson said in a statement.